Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 0z Euro really develops the secondary storm next Friday/Saturday and drops 6-12"+ of snow for W OH/SE IN/C KY. Now if this could actually happen. These "secondary storms" almost usually never work out, despite being modeled sometimes. If we can build up a decent ridge and cold anomalies out ahead of the cut-off, maybe we can get some phasing with the northern stream, but I wouldn't be so optimistic about it just yet. This winter, like the past few, have taught me/us that we never get what we want so better to just see <120 hours out what the trend is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Climatology: The Southern Great Lakes are a horrible location for storm development. After 9 years of living here, I am finally coming to grips with it. Storms almost always come here to weaken, or if they strengthen, they love to cut up Lake Michigan and give much of us slop or rain. The Groundhog's Day storm was the best I've seen in the nearly decade I have been here. Other than that, it's relying on clipper city. Climate-wise, I highly doubt we see a great snowstorm for the forum in January. This morning's GFS run was atrocious for winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, blackrock said: Climatology: The Southern Great Lakes are a horrible location for storm development. After 9 years of living here, I am finally coming to grips with it. Storms almost always come here to weaken, or if they strengthen, they love to cut up Lake Michigan and give much of us slop or rain. The Groundhog's Day storm was the best I've seen in the nearly decade I have been here. Other than that, it's relying on clipper city. Climate-wise, I highly doubt we see a great snowstorm for the forum in January. This morning's GFS run was atrocious for winter lovers. Some big time 850mb temp anomalies showing up at the end of the run. Terrible timing as I just rented a cottage up on Bruce Peninsula for the month do to some cross country skiing. Praying I’m far enough north that temps can still stay below freezing but that GFS run had a couple rainers for most of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, harrisale said: Some big time 850mb temp anomalies showing up at the end of the run. Terrible timing as I just rented a cottage up on Bruce Peninsula for the month do to some cross country skiing. Praying I’m far enough north that temps can still stay below freezing but that GFS run had a couple rainers for most of the sub. You should head up to Muskoka. I lived there for 2 winters. LOTS of lake effect snow (several feet snowpack through winter) and far enough up in latitude/elevation to survive most thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, blackrock said: Climatology: The Southern Great Lakes are a horrible location for storm development. After 9 years of living here, I am finally coming to grips with it. Storms almost always come here to weaken, or if they strengthen, they love to cut up Lake Michigan and give much of us slop or rain. The Groundhog's Day storm was the best I've seen in the nearly decade I have been here. Other than that, it's relying on clipper city. Climate-wise, I highly doubt we see a great snowstorm for the forum in January. This morning's GFS run was atrocious for winter lovers. Bingo I'm hoping the UP survives the warm period.... I'm sure Ontario will, but damn this sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The euro weeklies show this lasting from the 15th through the first week of February. We will lose a solid 2 weeks of our prime winter period. I guess average weather is a balance of warm periods and cold periods. I wish it could be 25/10F all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 When the cold returns sun angle will be too high for snow to accumulate decently for many. Put a fork in it. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Guest said: When the cold returns sun angle will be too high for snow to accumulate decently for many. Put a fork in it. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Thanks Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Guest said: When the cold returns sun angle will be too high for snow to accumulate decently for many. Put a fork in it. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk This is nonsense and you know it. Good rates can easily overcome an increasing sun angle. The bigger issue is snow retention after it ends, as melting is prone to occur even on days below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Terrible 12z GFS run. Last two January's, YYZ only recorded ~4.0". 5 days in and seeing the long-range forecast, we may see a three-peat. I remain skeptical we will reach average amounts (12.0") especially at this rate. Atrocious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, blackrock said: Climatology: The Southern Great Lakes are a horrible location for storm development. After 9 years of living here, I am finally coming to grips with it. Storms almost always come here to weaken, or if they strengthen, they love to cut up Lake Michigan and give much of us slop or rain. The Groundhog's Day storm was the best I've seen in the nearly decade I have been here. Other than that, it's relying on clipper city. Climate-wise, I highly doubt we see a great snowstorm for the forum in January. This morning's GFS run was atrocious for winter lovers. Clippers usually strengthen and cutters lose some moisture being so far from the gulf. Bowling ball type systems seem to be more common in recent years. And luckily the lakes enhance most disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 While a January thaw certainly looks likely, some of you guys crack me up literally writing off all of January. The models are atrocious and change daily, sometimes drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: While a January thaw certainly looks likely, some of you guys crack me up literally writing off all of January. The models are atrocious and change daily, sometimes drastically. I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: While a January thaw certainly looks likely, some of you guys crack me up literally writing off all of January. The models are atrocious and change daily, sometimes drastically. Detroit will find a way to reach average or above average by winter's end, even if the rest of us don't. That's a guarantee! I'm not overly optimistic about the pattern moving forward. The thaw may bring some much needed moisture but it may just all be liquid rather than frozen precip. Beyond that, we may go back to the same pattern we experienced in December where only a handful of people benefited from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, cmillzz said: I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one. Looks to lock in based on what!? Lmao we are still 3-4 weeks away from mid-winter. I do think more thaws and roller coasters will start, but that it will be a snowier than normal winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, blackrock said: You should head up to Muskoka. I lived there for 2 winters. LOTS of lake effect snow (several feet snowpack through winter) and far enough up in latitude/elevation to survive most thaws. Unfortunately I’ve already committed to my Bruce Peninsula place for the month. There’s a huge snowpack (3 or so ft) now so hopefully that holds up. The end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS runs sure don’t look pretty either. Pretty similar warm look to both starting around Jan 11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Detroit will find a way to reach average or above average by winter's end, even if the rest of us don't. That's a guarantee! I'm not overly optimistic about the pattern moving forward. The thaw may bring some much needed moisture but it may just all be liquid rather than frozen precip. Beyond that, we may go back to the same pattern we experienced in December where only a handful of people benefited from it. Well we had such a head start so it's a good bet. But I have to imagine these storms will start benefiting others too. If not then this winter will stick out as a huge contradiction to a typical nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Jonger said: The euro weeklies show this lasting from the 15th through the first week of February. We will lose a solid 2 weeks of our prime winter period. I guess average weather is a balance of warm periods and cold periods. I wish it could be 25/10F all winter long. lol... quit wishing and crying and MOVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, harrisale said: Unfortunately I’ve already committed to my Bruce Peninsula place for the month. There’s a huge snowpack (3 or so ft) now so hopefully that holds up. The end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS runs sure don’t look pretty either. Pretty similar warm look to both starting around Jan 11-12. I guarantee it holds up. Melting that much snow that far north this time of year is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Well we had such a head start so it's a good bet. But I have to imagine these storms will start benefiting others too. If not then this winter will stick out as a huge contradiction to a typical nina winter. 11-12 Nina was crap too! Starting to think even if its a Nino or Nina, we will still get shafted either way! Reoccurring theme in recent years! We'll see. You're always the optimistic one, haha. The lack of posters this winter in our sub-forum speaks volumes as to how crap it's been thus far! Doesn't look to change for the foreseeable future at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 33 minutes ago, cmillzz said: I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one. Bring on Morch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, cmillzz said: I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one. If an early Spring to you is March 2012 then you'll probably be dead before that ever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, roardog said: If an early Spring to you is March 2012 then you'll probably be dead before that ever happens. Arguably we had an early spring of sorts in many areas just last year. The thing is that it came in February and then we slipped back into winter a bit in March. April was pretty mild though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 11 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 0z Euro really develops the secondary storm next Friday/Saturday and drops 6-12"+ of snow for W OH/SE IN/C KY. Now if this could actually happen. * poof * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one. 26 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Bring on Morch! 20 minutes ago, roardog said: If an early Spring to you is March 2012 then you'll probably be dead before that ever happens. Yep, you guys beat me to it. A once in a lifetime event that I'd like to relive, but it's not not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: Yep, you guys beat me to it. A once in a lifetime event that I'd like to relive, but it's not not gonna happen. That was epic. 90 degree temps in Michigan in March! Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 Yesterday I posted about the drought in the Plains and some western areas of this region... and even some areas outside of the "drought" zone have turned pretty dry. I think we may see this become more noticeable in having an effect on temps once the snow melts. For one thing, a lot of the snow that has occurred has been on the drier side, so not a ton of water content. When it does eventually melt and the water is released, how much of that will be able to soak into the ground is questionable especially because of the extreme cold stretch. Admittedly this is getting out in time but it's easy to see how the groundwork is being laid for some torchy days, especially around/beyond mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: 11-12 Nina was crap too! Starting to think even if its a Nino or Nina, we will still get shafted either way! Reoccurring theme in recent years! We'll see. You're always the optimistic one, haha. The lack of posters this winter in our sub-forum speaks volumes as to how crap it's been thus far! Doesn't look to change for the foreseeable future at this point in time. I always forget 11-12 was a nina. But it was a train wreck everywhere. Why not be optimistic? It's worked just fine here lol. Maybe ma nature likes optimism? Im averaging a foot above normal the last decade. Maybe more of you guys should try it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 58 minutes ago, buckeye said: * poof * Gone in a blink of an eye! Meh, maybe it’ll come back over the next few days....hah who am I kidding?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 hours ago, Guest said: When the cold returns sun angle will be too high for snow to accumulate decently for many. Put a fork in it. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one. I hate agreeing with either/both of your posts, but I've not seen one hint that this Nina wants to deliver the goods so for anything meaningful I have to reluctantly agree.. Eventually we'll suffer thru more cold dry-ish clippers but this will end up being a (much) colder version of last season imho. And I'm not sure I'll even catch last year for snow total. As well as I've done in December, I had more last Dec. I'm 12.8" shy of last January and it's not looking like that's in the cards going forward...#pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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