IWXwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 EPS is agreeing with JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 save the palms. drain the pattern.. bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What a terrible month so far, lol. But to offer a little insight regarding the "potential" storm. There's already a significant difference in the H5 pattern between the 12z GFS and 12z NAM at 84 hours. NAM is more closed in with the s/w which could allow for better phasing leading to a different outcome than what the 12z GFS has if it were to be extrapolated. Not holding any hope on anything, but that's something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: JB's boy crying wolf on snow and cold is well documented. OTOH, touting warm in winter is something he usually has to be dragged into kicking and screaming. This is why I would take to the bank his recent and constant beating of a warm turnaround. As others mentioned, he believes the MJO will drive into phase 4 at a decent amplitude. The other drum he's beating is the SOI. It has now gone positive and climbing. He has said he thinks winter will come back but doesn't seem that confident about it. Feels when it comes back it will be centered in the central and western US, and will need to fight east. I'm with Stebo. If the best we can do during these outbreaks is 5" of styrofoam , then ill take a torch every time. Its a little different down in Columbus, but up here, this pattern produced over 20-25 inches of snow. Yes, Stebo might not be happy with a week of dry arctic cold (though the snowpack is still fresh looking), but it has produced quite nicely for us. The Styrofoam joke was funny, but there is a solid base of snowpack down to enjoy many winter outdoor activities. What will a torch produce? Misery for everyone and a lot more sickness will be floating around (as if there isn't enough already). And we cant even get severe in spring or summer lately, I doubt it happens in winter. Now...the middle ground between a torch and bitter cold is really what would satisfy many. Its more of a gamble but big storms can come of it and put everyone in the game. Just like we hear every year in March and April "why would anyone wish for cold now", I say the same in January about a torch. A torch is a bold statement, but a pattern relaxation just has to come. Its been a much wintrier winter than I expected, and with none of the usual La Nina quirks. Something has got to give soon. I have my eye on the weekend right now. And per the GEM OH is still well in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its a little different down in Columbus, but up here, this pattern produced over 20-25 inches of snow. Yes, Stebo might not be happy with a week of dry arctic cold (though the snowpack is still fresh looking), but it has produced quite nicely for us. The Styrofoam joke was funny, but there is a solid base of snowpack down to enjoy many winter outdoor activities. What will a torch produce? Misery for everyone and a lot more sickness will be floating around (as if there isn't enough already). And we cant even get severe in spring or summer lately, I doubt it happens in winter. Now...the middle ground between a torch and bitter cold is really what would satisfy many. Its more of a gamble but big storms can come of it and put everyone in the game. Just like we hear every year in March and April "why would anyone wish for cold now", I say the same in January about a torch. A torch is a bold statement, but a pattern relaxation just has to come. Its been a much wintrier winter than I expected, and with none of the usual La Nina quirks. Something has got to give soon. I have my eye on the weekend right now. And per the GEM OH is still well in the game. This...so this! At least with the cold there is a chance for snow, albeit stretches of dry occur, I'd rather a chance than any torch during winter. A torch will be miserable and muddy! Not to mention, none of my family members got sick over the holidays, whereas in the past when it was warm over the holidays, at least one of us got sick. Plenty of time for torches, in Spring and Summer! It's Winter so give me cold, and hopefully snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: EPS is agreeing with JB. Real world translation: you (the general you, not you specifically) better get a good snow by then or else you may be SOL for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 That being said, the Euro products have missed the cold in the long range this winter, but maybe this time the warmup has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 hours ago, Stebo said: Why? He is 100% cold year after year and has been for over a decade. Might be the one time where even he has to call it like it is and that it will be warming up, which god I hope does happen if it isn't going to be snowing. 20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I thought once he went mild. Never follow him though, just go by what is on here. And he DOES always go cold cold cold...so you would think there would be some monster sign for massive torch for him to even mention a thaw, even though a January thaw is normal. And I have seen nothing indicating that. I want the action to return too, but having a winter wonderland landscape in the meantime is right up my alley. Plus it usually finds ways to snow in MI. Sounds about right, I think he called for the warm start to 06-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: That being said, the Euro products have missed the cold in the long range this winter, but maybe this time the warmup has legs. They have, and this one could get muted as we get closer. Seems like 13-14 had the look of warm-ups via the MJO, only to have it go into the COD, and pop back out in a colder phase. Time will tell ofc, and for the record I'm fine with closer to avg as soon as we grab another top 5 something or another..cold, snowy month, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 hours ago, pondo1000 said: This...so this! At least with the cold there is a chance for snow, albeit stretches of dry occur, I'd rather a chance than any torch during winter. A torch will be miserable and muddy! Not to mention, none of my family members got sick over the holidays, whereas in the past when it was warm over the holidays, at least one of us got sick. Plenty of time for torches, in Spring and Summer! It's Winter so give me cold, and hopefully snow. I must be doing a poor job of explaining myself. I love snow and tracking snow events. If I had a choice between a snowy January full of trackable snow events or a January with a wall to wall torch....I'd pick the snowy January every time. HOWEVER, that is not the choices being put in front of us or the choice we are talking about. Reality has presented something much different. If the price I have to pay for 5" of snow, is weeks of brutal cold , a northwest flow starved of clippers, virtually nothing to track, and crazy expensive heating bills.... If its between THAT and a torch. A torch every time. I can get 5" of snow in a benign above normal pattern, so why put up with that other crap? A torch in January is hardly misery to 80 % of normal adults. Subzero temps OTOH, is. Frozen pipes, car issues, heating bills, and the simple fact that -20 wind chill feels like sh*t. As far as getting sick ?? Warm spells in winter do not cause sickness. Viruses do much better in low humidity and our immune systems do much worse in bitter cold conditions. Cold drives us in doors where we spread our germs to each other. I think we need a real snow storm soon. Maybe that we can agree on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Winter sucks, enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, buckeye said: I must be doing a poor job of explaining myself. I love snow and tracking snow events. If I had a choice between a snowy January full of trackable snow events or a January with a wall to wall torch....I'd pick the snowy January every time. HOWEVER, that is not the choices being put in front of us or the choice we are talking about. Reality has presented something much different. If the price I have to pay for 5" of snow, is weeks of brutal cold , a northwest flow starved of clippers, virtually nothing to track, and crazy expensive heating bills.... If its between THAT and a torch. A torch every time. I can get 5" of snow in a benign above normal pattern, so why put up with that other crap? A torch in January is hardly misery to 80 % of normal adults. Subzero temps OTOH, is. Frozen pipes, car issues, heating bills, and the simple fact that -20 wind chill feels like sh*t. As far as getting sick ?? Warm spells in winter do not cause sickness. Viruses do much better in low humidity and our immune systems do much worse in bitter cold conditions. Cold drives us in doors where we spread our germs to each other. I think we need a real snow storm soon. Maybe that we can agree on There you have it. I’m not normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Disagree with Buckeye. Record cold and extended cold records is a good thing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 hours ago, pondo1000 said: There you have it. I’m not normal. Well no one here is .... Including myself. I personally don't know of anyone else that can find and read wx models, and follow them daily,...as a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The storm global are hinting towards mid next week continues to peak my interest. Obviously a lot of moving parts and this is still a ways out, though at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 LOL @ people who live in a cold climate and hate it. Move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, mimillman said: The storm global are hinting towards mid next week continues to peak my interest. Obviously a lot of moving parts and this is still a ways out, though at least it's something to watch. I remain skeptical, as I have all winter, about anything serious next week. We've had a couple disappointments this winter already, so I'm not holding onto any hope at all. We've watched the s/w get crushed and/or singled out because of either bad timing or a strong polar jet which has happened in some 2nd year Nina's. In regards to a potential system later next week, the pieces are there, but there exists the possibility of rain as well. The fact that we have yet to see any potential storm worth tracking so far this winter is nothing short of new. Not having anything meaningful so far is going to impact whether some of us even reach normal levels for a 2nd/3rd straight season in a row. Just terrible stats, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 There should be a good storm eventually. Something's gotta give. Whether it's good snow wise for most of us is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: There should be a good storm eventually. Something's gotta give. Whether it's good snow wise for most of us is another story. Pattern has gotta change sometime. Maybe we'll get a good trough in the west and an early svr season at least farther south if not yet here. IND is already advertising their all day severe wx symposium at Butler University for St. Patrick;s Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 There should be a good storm eventually. Something's gotta give. Whether it's good snow wise for most of us is another story.Agree, even in the crappier seasons since 2010, there's always a decent storm or 2 somewhere, regardless of areas affected. Going by Chicago data, 11-12, 12-13, 15-16 and 16-17 were below normal snowfall wise. 11-12 had 2 very good January events and a good February event for the northern suburbs. 12-13 had a brutal start due to bad luck (near misses in late December) but then a very good February with far northern IL getting slammed and then best storm of season on March 9th along with a near miss of historic central IL storm in late March that prevented an above normal season for ORD. 15-16 was a very near miss for the February 24th blizzard, which also prevented an above normal season. 16-17 had a very good December with 3 6"+ events and obviously a crappy pattern after until March.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 hours ago, mimillman said: The storm global are hinting towards mid next week continues to peak my interest. Obviously a lot of moving parts and this is still a ways out, though at least it's something to watch. It always looks good this far out then it fizzles out story of this winter weaker solution wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Jonger said: LOL @ people who live in a cold climate and hate it. Move. Using that logic than every snow weenie in this forum needs to stop complaining about the anemic snow totals and move to Will's neighborhood. Personally, I love the changes of season but I hate brutal cold with little to no snow, (I'm not sure how that translates into hating winter). This pattern is about a once in 10 year event with it's duration and strength, so moving because of it would be nonsensicle. I don't know many folks who actually like brutal cold without snow....maybe ice fishermen, insulation sales people, and masochists?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 For some reason there has been very little crying about the cold which is refreshing. Lack of snow i'm sure has helped. You can negate the cold.. Snow for some reason gets folks all wrinkled up including their cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Jonger said: LOL @ people who live in a cold climate and hate it. Move. 31 minutes ago, buckeye said: Using that logic than every snow weenie in this forum needs to stop complaining about the anemic snow totals and move to Will's neighborhood. Personally, I love the changes of season but I hate brutal cold with little to no snow, (I'm not sure how that translates into hating winter). This pattern is about a once in 10 year event with it's duration and strength, so moving because of it would be nonsensicle. I don't know many folks who actually like brutal cold without snow....maybe ice fishermen, insulation sales people, and masochists?? Buckeye, remember that is coming from a guy who complains when it gets above 75. Take his commentary for what minimal value it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: At least the 8-15th period should be open to storminess if the pattern goes right compared to the tundra pattern. Threading a needle. Next Friday and Saturday could be interesting if it plays out like todays 12z Euro/18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Multi model/ensemble support for the warmup to above average temps way out in the long range. We shall see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 50 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Next Friday and Saturday could be interesting if it plays out like todays 12z Euro/18z GFS. So near, yet so far away ... That is just sheer weather porn for us OH folks. Don't get sucked in just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Angrysummons said: At least the 8-15th period should be open to storminess if the pattern goes right compared to the tundra pattern. Threading a needle. That pattern will bring nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Buckeye, remember that is coming from a guy who complains when it gets above 75. Take his commentary for what minimal value it has. There is very little economic opportunities north of us. On the otherhand, most economic growth is in the sun belt. It's an easy move to go south, north.... not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 55 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Multi model/ensemble support for the warmup to above average temps way out in the long range. We shall see if it holds. The warmth on the long range GFS looks very impressive after the severe cold we've endured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.