Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[Hoosier]

What a weenie fantasy storm on the later panels of the 18z GFS.  Huge coverage.

Will be nice to actually get a serious threat inside of 5 days.

[Stebo]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What a weenie fantasy storm on the later panels of the 18z GFS.  Huge coverage.

Will be nice to actually get a serious threat inside of 5 days.

Trough oriented further west by that point, and we end up with a massive jackpot. That is where we need that trough to be.

[RCNYILWX]

The fantasy range 18z GFS demonstrates well (and dramatically so) how the pattern could work out for at least portions of the sub. The massive poleward Pacific ridging/blocking retrogrades far enough west, coupled with what looks to be a neutral or at most slightly - NAO but maintained -AO that the WAR/southeast ridge flexes eventually.

This progression, which has been hinted at on many of the recent ensemble runs, sets up a better clipper pattern initially and then yields to a more favorable pattern for a stronger synoptic system. Obviously in clown range the specific details can't be taken seriously whatsoever, but it's nice to see it as a guide to what we'd like to see happen to get into a active/snowy pattern.

There's ways in which next week could produce some light to moderate snow in portions of the sub away from the lakes, but signs on the ensembles continue to point toward the week after offering a better chance for a more consistently active pattern. We'll see how it all works out.

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[TugHillMatt]

11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The fantasy range 18z GFS demonstrates well (and dramatically so) how the pattern could work out for at least portions of the sub. The massive poleward Pacific ridging/blocking retrogrades far enough west, coupled with what looks to be a neutral or at most slightly - NAO but maintained -AO that the WAR/southeast ridge flexes eventually.

This progression, which has been hinted at on many of the recent ensemble runs, sets up a better clipper pattern initially and then yields to a more favorable pattern for a stronger synoptic system. Obviously in clown range the specific details can't be taken seriously whatsoever, but it's nice to see it as a guide to what we'd like to see happen to get into a active/snowy pattern.

There's ways in which next week could produce some light to moderate snow in portions of the sub away from the lakes, but signs on the ensembles continue to point toward the week after offering a better chance for a more consistently active pattern. We'll see how it all works out.

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Models seem to be showing pockets of energy/moisture moving through, with not many established "low pressure systems" next week. It looks like next week will be a good week for each of those areas of instability to get some lake effect and lake enhanced snows going. Definitely hinting at a potentially active pattern compared to the cold/dry that many were concerned about. Looking forward to seeing what happens!

[UMB WX]

26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The fantasy range 18z GFS demonstrates well (and dramatically so) how the pattern could work out for at least portions of the sub. The massive poleward Pacific ridging/blocking retrogrades far enough west, coupled with what looks to be a neutral or at most slightly - NAO but maintained -AO that the WAR/southeast ridge flexes eventually.

This progression, which has been hinted at on many of the recent ensemble runs, sets up a better clipper pattern initially and then yields to a more favorable pattern for a stronger synoptic system. Obviously in clown range the specific details can't be taken seriously whatsoever, but it's nice to see it as a guide to what we'd like to see happen to get into a active/snowy pattern.

There's ways in which next week could produce some light to moderate snow in portions of the sub away from the lakes, but signs on the ensembles continue to point toward the week after offering a better chance for a more consistently active pattern. We'll see how it all works out.

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So we're all going to have a White Christmas!!

 

 

That right there signals it's time to get our winter wx goggles on.  

 

Keep up the great work you guys do down there and thanks so much for time you spend here.

[RCNYILWX]

To add to the positive signs heading into mid December, the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS. The 18z GEFS prog is legitimately a very good look for a stormy pattern for the sub, with the Pac ridge further retrograding to the EPO domain. Negative height anomalies almost to the Pacific coast imply an active Pacific jet with southern stream waves undercutting the EPO ridge and northern stream/polar jet waves diving southeast over the ridge with potential for phasing of the streams and a more favorable track if/when PV relaxes as Atlantic blocking eases. Would think an active clipper/hybrid regime would also continue outside of any larger synoptic system too.

The 12z EPS is not as good of a look as the GEFS but is definitely one we can work with (such as shown by the 12/2000 and 1/2014 composites) due to the PNA/EPO ridge axis being just off the coast until northwest BC. With the consistency of the ensembles in depicting an overall improving pattern day 11-15, not currently seeing any red flags pointing to a too far east ridge axis strongly favoring a dry pattern. If we can get inside 10 days, we very well could be in business.

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[RCNYILWX]

Is there any general guideline on what posts should go in December/monthly threads and which ones should go in this thread?

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[Stebo]

14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Is there any general guideline on what posts should go in December/monthly threads and which ones should go in this thread?

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I think your posts from there could actually fit better in here, maybe Hoosier can transfer them?

[BuffaloWeather]

This is why the Pacific is the most important look at that PNA. 

Positive PNA, Negative NAO, Negative EPO, Neutral WPO, Negative AO. Literally every indice is perfect for Great Lakes and Northeast cold. 

 

1985 popping up quite often as top analog, Buffalo airports 2nd snowiest December.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Is there any general guideline on what posts should go in December/monthly threads and which ones should go in this thread?

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December thread is more for day to day discussion, i.e. "my high was 34 today" while this one is for longer term stuff, including storm threats that are in the med-long range.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

To add to the positive signs heading into mid December, the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS. The 18z GEFS prog is legitimately a very good look for a stormy pattern for the sub, with the Pac ridge further retrograding to the EPO domain. Negative height anomalies almost to the Pacific coast imply an active Pacific jet with southern stream waves undercutting the EPO ridge and northern stream/polar jet waves diving southeast over the ridge with potential for phasing of the streams and a more favorable track if/when PV relaxes as Atlantic blocking eases. Would think an active clipper/hybrid regime would also continue outside of any larger synoptic system too.

The 12z EPS is not as good of a look as the GEFS but is definitely one we can work with (such as shown by the 12/2000 and 1/2014 composites) due to the PNA/EPO ridge axis being just off the coast until northwest BC. With the consistency of the ensembles in depicting an overall improving pattern day 11-15, not currently seeing any red flags pointing to a too far east ridge axis strongly favoring a dry pattern. If we can get inside 10 days, we very well could be in business.

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This is gonna deliver, something, at least. Via the BSR and RC, both combined make a strong case for it. Love your posts btw

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is why the Pacific is the most important look at that PNA. 

Positive PNA, Negative NAO, Negative EPO, Neutral WPO, Negative AO. Literally every indice is perfect for Great Lakes and Northeast cold. 

 

 

1985 popping up quite often as top analog, Buffalo airports 2nd snowiest December.

 

I would have to disagree with that. It seems that the AO has been the most powerful influence on our weather patterns...especially during this century, and during the winters. A +AO often coincides with the Pacific Jet. A -PNA and +AO is especially blah together.

[RCNYILWX]

December thread is more for day to day discussion, i.e. "my high was 34 today" while this one is for longer term stuff, including storm threats that are in the med-long range.

Thanks! Makes sense, but since there was also pattern discussion in other thread just went with it. Feel free to move my posts over to here as Stebo suggested.

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[cmillzz]

Looks like a garbage pattern from what I can tell. Cold and dry is always the worst, and a +PNA isn’t going to help one bit. 

[cmillzz]

It’s a good pattern for cold, but if you’re looking for some decent snow (outside the lake belts) good luck.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Looks like a garbage pattern from what I can tell. Cold and dry is always the worst, and a +PNA isn’t going to help one bit. 

Well if it turns out dry, that’s alright because maybe Agung will blow it’s top and you can get some snow showers next June. Lol

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

It’s a good pattern for cold, but if you’re looking for some decent snow (outside the lake belts) good luck.

Have you even read the well thought out and reasoned posts by the Mets and other posters?

RC lays out the pattern change players quite well in the December thread, and gives some well reasoned thoughts. 

Your negativity for the sake of negativity is getting old. 

[snowlover2]

12z GFS/GGEM both were a little interesting for the east parts of the sub for the mid week storm next week. Both show the colder air catching up faster to the precip as its crossing E. IL/IN/OH/MI and changing it to snow. Both show light accums with the GGEM being a little more bullish.

[RogueWaves]

41 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS/GGEM both were a little interesting for the east parts of the sub for the mid week storm next week. Both show the colder air catching up faster to the precip as its crossing E. IL/IN/OH/MI and changing it to snow. Both show light accums with the GGEM being a little more bullish.

Here we go again..see Nov 17-18 storm

[Hoosier]

My positive spin on things is that a period of dry cold initially would be beneficial in one way -- give the ground a chance to chill to minimize the chance of melting from the bottom up.

[Stebo]

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

My positive spin on things is that a period of dry cold initially would be beneficial in one way -- give the ground a chance to chill to minimize the chance of melting from the bottom up.

Counter point: a blizzard would pile the snow fast enough that it wouldn't matter

In all seriousness though frozen bare ground is about as depressing as you can get in winter.

[KokomoWX]

47 minutes ago, Stebo said:

In all seriousness though frozen bare ground is about as depressing as you can get in winter.

2

I beg to differ.  35 and cold rain is the worst.

[Hoosier]

58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Counter point: a blizzard would pile the snow fast enough that it wouldn't matter

In all seriousness though frozen bare ground is about as depressing as you can get in winter.

Yeah but we're not getting that.  Best we can hope for for snow at the onset of this cold pattern is probably an anafrontal type setup like snowlover posted.

[snowlover2]

12z Euro appears almost 24 hours faster not giving the colder air a chance to catch up to the precip and thus showing no snow.

[cmillzz]

12 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Have you even read the well thought out and reasoned posts by the Mets and other posters?

RC lays out the pattern change players quite well in the December thread, and gives some well reasoned thoughts. 

Your negativity for the sake of negativity is getting old. 

I’ll believe it when I see it. 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I’ll believe it when I see it. 

South Bend does have the lake to work with when the flow is right.  By the way, we expect you to provide us with some snowy pics from there if the rest of us are in dry cold.  Before your trip to Arizona of course.

[cmillzz]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

South Bend does have the lake to work with when the flow is right.  By the way, we expect you to provide us with some snowy pics from there if the rest of us are in dry cold.  Before your trip to Arizona of course.

LES gets tiring after a while. I want to see some legit synoptic snow for a change, and some true blizzard conditions. Seems like the last good one was GHD in 2011. 

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

LES gets tiring after a while. I want to see some legit synoptic snow for a change, and some true blizzard conditions. Seems like the last good one was GHD in 2011. 

Snow is snow... especially if it is piling up.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, KokomoWX said:

I beg to differ.  35 and cold rain is the worst.

Nah...Frozen Ground, with 35 and cold rain is the worst.....

 

[TugHillMatt]

13 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

LES gets tiring after a while. I want to see some legit synoptic snow for a change, and some true blizzard conditions. Seems like the last good one was GHD in 2011. 

That's tough to see when you want the temperature to be above 50 degrees.