Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[vespasian70]

8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z NAM looks GFS like for the weekend potential. It loses the Friday/Saturday wave and by hour 84 looks like its setting up the bigger storm that GFS has for the weekend.

Hopefully the NAM won't take it south like the GFS did.

[buckeye]

The Canadian shows -35 to -20 readings from central IL to central Ohio on Jan. 2nd.

For Columbus, that usually means it'll be raining 24 hrs later.

 

[vespasian70]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The Canadian shows -35 to -20 readings from central IL to central Ohio on Jan. 2nd.

For Columbus, that usually means it'll be raining 24 hrs later.

 

I don't know what is worse, the brutal cold or the phantom storms? A very boring pattern.

[CoalCityWxMan]

1 hour ago, vespasian70 said:

Hopefully the NAM won't take it south like the GFS did.

The GFS has been forecasting a most likely unreasonably high pressure reading, so that's probably why it's suppressing it. Wouldn't put too much stock in the GFS in regards to that setup yet. 

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The GFS has been forecasting a most likely unreasonably high pressure reading, so that's probably why it's suppressing it. Wouldn't put too much stock in the GFS in regards to that setup yet. 

Wouldn't put much stock in the GFS at doing anything. Someone said it's performing like the CMC. Especially with the QPF regarding these weaker systems. They are too low amplitude and too far separated from a quality moisture source to drop the amount advertised. We can use the clipper for tomorrow as a case in point, just yesterday it was spitting out 6+ inch outputs and today it has a 1-3” system. Will ratios be high in each of these systems? Probably, but with such meager QPF, amounts would be equally low. I foresee the same song and dance occurring for the next few weak disturbances this weekend, at least until they are able to secure a gulf connection, if they are able to secure it at all. Considering this, I believe the Euro has a much better handle on things and is where I'm putting most of my stock, as much as it pains me to do so.

[cyclone77]

53 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Wouldn't put much stock in the GFS at doing anything. Someone said it's performing like the CMC. Especially with the QPF regarding these weaker systems. They are too low amplitude and too far separated from a quality moisture source to drop the amount advertised. We can use the clipper for tomorrow as a case in point, just yesterday it was spitting out 6+ inch outputs and today it has a 1-3” system. Will ratios be high in each of these systems? Probably, but with such meager QPF, amounts would be equally low. I foresee the same song and dance occurring for the next few weak disturbances this weekend, at least until they are able to secure a gulf connection, if they are able to secure it at all. Considering this, I believe the Euro has a much better handle on things and is where I'm putting most of my stock, as much as it pains me to do so.

We may as well just save time and just follow the Euro for anything beyond about 30-36hrs.  Other than a few instances it's almost always the one that the other models end up trending towards.  

[cyclone77]

GFS has slowly withered what was once shown as a respectable clipper for Thu down to a nuisance heavy dusting for Iowa and nearby areas.  It's been literally lol worthy watching each successive run stair-step down in QPF since the weekend.  Thought about starting a thread a few days ago but luckily the fruit from that never got the chance to die on the vine.

[andyhb]

23 hours ago, andyhb said:

00z GFS is basically my idea of hell to sum things up.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

And yeah thankfully this isn't February or March (or later).

[michsnowfreak]

We should see a bit of snow Thursday night and Friday then IA, IN, & OH look to see some love on the weekend before a bitterly cold new years. The tundra is going nowhere. My street was plowed but has a layer of caked on snow that's immovable. Its like a mini polar vortex of jan 2014.

[Hoosier]

Euro and Canadian are trying to cook up a more significant system at day 10.

We can only hope.

[snowlover2]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro and Canadian are trying to cook up a more significant system at day 10.

We can only hope.

Up until the 12z run, GFS had been showing a storm in the same general time frame.

[Central Illinois]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro and Canadian are trying to cook up a more significant system at day 10.

We can only hope.

We know how that story goes 

[IWXwx]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro and Canadian are trying to cook up a more significant system at day 10.

We can only hope.

According to Jonger, the GFS  isn't playing ball, so toss 'em.

Seriously, after days and days of bitter cold, it's nice that a couple of models are showing something semi-interesting.

[RCNYILWX]

Regarding the possible system toward the end of the Euro run, 00z run has it again tonight. 00z 12/29 and 12z 12/29 Euro ensembles also had quite a strong signal for a system for being that far out with multiple members showing decent low pressure centers and a surface low in the ensemble mean. Hopefully if something does develop, the continued -EPO ridging that now is appearing likely prevents a warm cutter.

 

 

 

 

[buckeye]

6 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Regarding the possible system toward the end of the Euro run, 00z run has it again tonight. 00z 12/29 and 12z 12/29 Euro ensembles also had quite a strong signal for a system for being that far out with multiple members showing decent low pressure centers and a surface low in the ensemble mean. Hopefully if something does develop, the continued -EPO ridging that now is appearing likely prevents a warm cutter.

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately for those of us in the southeastern half of the sub,  the euro ensembles strongly support the cutter look.  Heavy cluster of slp in IL, virtually none east of that.  Iowa and potentially Chicago would do quite well.   

Of course we know that will look much different in 12 hrs, but a sudden flip from arctic cold to a rainer is not exactly unheard of in my area.

[hlcater]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Unfortunately for those of us in the southeastern half of the sub,  the euro ensembles strongly support the cutter look.  Heavy cluster of slp in IL, virtually none east of that.  Iowa and potentially Chicago would do quite well.   

Of course we know that will look much different in 12 hrs, but a sudden flip from arctic cold to a rainer is not exactly unheard of in my area.

Euro and GFS are also showing a pretty warm system as well. That doesn't make much sense to me though. How is a system struggling to find any cold air in January, of course both runs have it come in later, but the system is initially warm.

[Hoosier]

Coming out of a deep cold stretch, that system has travel trouble written all over it if it plays out like that... even in areas that would get a bit above freezing.

[IWXwx]

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Coming out of a deep cold stretch, that system has travel trouble written all over it if it plays out like that... even in areas that would get a bit above freezing.

You thinking ice like I've been wondering about?

[Indystorm]

Well, i'm thinking ice for someone a bit north because of the depth of this massive cold air in retreat.  But I think as I look at today's GFS run for Jan. 8-9 the main point is the geographic extensiveness of the system.

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

You thinking ice like I've been wondering about?

At least one of those situations when the ground is still slick despite the thermometer showing 35 or something.

[DAFF]

Watching the possible set up of the cutter has me intrigued with the system of winter 76-77 ... I can see some possible similarities of that winter to this season and how the recipe of another epic storm could be in the making.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro went somewhat suppressed with that system.

[Snowstorms]

Having been teased before this month by models in the medium-long range, I remain skeptical with anything beyond 4 days. To much model variability to be sold out on anything. 

However, a key variable that will a play in this s/w is the preceding storm on January 4-6 off the east coast. A track along the coast may create a "block" (50-50 low) around Newfoundland, thus suppressing this s/w, giving it no room to phase and amplify. A track just off the coast/OTS, may allow it to dig in and amplify and track up west of the App's. The later part may give the SE ridge just enough time to establish itself. Lets see! Need something to shake this pattern off. This winter is too boring. 

[cmillzz]

Looks like a decent Colorado low to me.

[vespasian70]

3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Having been teased before this month by models in the medium-long range, I remain skeptical with anything beyond 4 days. To much model variability to be sold out on anything.

Agreed. All that we can say is a storm is a definite possible maybe in that time frame. We are chasing phantoms.

[cmillzz]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Looks like a decent Colorado low to me.

And the of course the 18z GFS completely loses it.

[Jim Martin]

Just now, cmillzz said:

And the of course the 18z GFS completely loses it.

It will come and go on the forecast models for the next several days.

[RCNYILWX]

I copied in a post below by poster Isotherm in a different forum focusing on east coast pattern trends. Key bit for our subforum is the last 3 paragraphs. If he's right, things *may* be looking up in January, even it's not readily apparent yet on the longer range ensembles. FWIW, Isotherm and Earthlight (used to post in NYC thread) correctly forecasted current large scale pattern and that ensembles a few weeks ago would be wrong with the southeast ridge they were showing at the time (a big factor in massive fantasy land GFS snowstorm).

 

"The preeminent, highly capricious hemispheric pattern will continue over the coming weeks; however, background forcing mechanisms will increasingly countermand the propitious signals for colder than normal in East. The BDC is beginning to weaken, reflective of warming temperatures in the tropical stratosphere, and decreasing ozone concentrations in the Arctic domain. Wave-2 activity will see a spike over the coming week, though well within typical standard deviations. Wave activity flux will largely decrease over the week 1-2 period as tropospheric-stratospheric energy transfer declines, and the PNJ intensifies. One can see the tightening / consolidation on latest data, although the w2 activity will aid in maintaining a somewhat northward displaced surf zone.

 

Nonetheless, the majority of January will feature a stronger than normal SPV and thus a predilection to downwell these anomalies into the troposphere, preferentially the eastern AO and NAO domains. This will tighten the jet, tending to enhance the West Atlantic Ridge signature.

 

Conversely, one of the more propitious signals is the development of a mean chi 200 signature not too dissimilar from the structure in 2013-14 which induced poleward ridging in the NE PAC. The MJO will circulate into the IO/Maritime Continent w/ probable maintenance in these regions for the balance of January. However, there will be sufficient off-equator forcing to extend the jet eastward w/ induction of rossby wave breaks (sound familiar?) into the NPAC. Heightened WAF in the NPAC will continue to force the regeneration / pulsing of mid/upper level ridging near/south of AK.

 

What will be the resultant atmospheric circulation structure? In my opinion, it will be one which largely favors the Lakes/Mid-west and interior Northeast for snowfall, with warm-up / rain / cold -- a very spasmodic roller coaster of temperatures but biased warmer than normal on the East Coast. The NHEM circulation will attempt to force the trough in the Central US, and there will be resistance of the +NAO induced West Atlantic Ridge.

 

In other words, I'm not seeing a blowtorch, but it still looks biased warmer than normal for the East Coast with a largely unfavorable pattern for snowfall. It should be warmer than nromal on the West Coast with colder than normal from the Rockies to the Lakes. AAM tendency will be negative, but with poleward propagation of +AAM anomalies which will maintain a +NAO. Arctic outbreaks will continue; however, with the poleward EPO predilection. We are entering mid winter, so snowfall is certainly possible even in less than favorable patterns. But it will be a step-back from the early winter favorability which would be harmonious with my thoughts on this winter's progression."

 

 

 

 

[Baum]

Always refreshing to see an analysis and discussion of a mid to longer range pattern and its potential positive or negative impact on real weather down the road versus consternation over the 18Z GFS 6 days out. 

[Hoosier]

As far as the system we're watching for about a week from now, decent front end thump on the 12z GFS as a potent LLJ rams into the retreating arctic airmass.  GGEM warmer though.