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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Now that today's system is starting to wind down out this way I'm starting to pay more attention to the medium range stuff.  Looks like a nice parade of clippers on the way, with the next one of interest coming around Thursday.  I'm liking the more west-northwest/east-southeast orientation of this "parade" compared to the more northwesterly orientated one a few weeks back.  As you would expect there's some differences between the Euro and GFS with Thursday's clipper.  The Euro is pretty far north compared to the GFS, at least on the op runs.  The next one appears on both the Euro and GFS around New Years.  This one looks pretty potent, but is hauling ass in that fast flow.  If we can get it to amplify and slow down we could have a pretty nice snowstorm to bring in the new year.

I'm hoping that you guys out that way can score on the projected setup. Clipper patterns don't always pay off (see MBY), but there's always the chance, as you said, to get one amped. It will most likely be a couple of whiffs to the south for me. I'll just have enjoy my snow cover and :shiver:

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Pretty bland pattern. Likely to warm up after the 28th as well. Just didn't deliver.

It seems like the pattern this winter in order to get snow will be right when it's changing from warm to cold...or cold to warm. In addition, too much of a progressive flow for lots of development. Then, IF things slow down, the SE ridge will flex its muscles and cause a cutter. We have already seen this in the modeling every time a deeper storm (which hasn't materialized yet) shows up in a model's pattern.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Right now, I'm sitting at 3.9" of didn't deliver and it's still delivering.

Fair point, but that’s not exactly impressive. Everyone has such low expectations here. Seeing 4” of snow over 2 weeks is not anything to be excited about. If it were November or March, that’s one thing...but 4” of snow in a 2 week period in DJF is bad.

Our climo is horrendous...but we can always hope for more. :)

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4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Fair point, but that’s not exactly impressive. Everyone has such low expectations here. Seeing 4” of snow over 2 weeks is not anything to be excited about. If it were November or March, that’s one thing...but 4” of snow in a 2 week period in DJF is bad.

Our climo is horrendous...but we can always hope for more. :)

I'd say 4" in 2 weeks is not bad the farther south one gets from I-80.  Not very good though.  North of there, I'd agree that the bar should be higher than that.

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The past several GFS runs continue to be pretty friendly for Iowa/northern IL, and points east for that Thursday clipper.  Nice broad swath of 0.2" precip over Iowa into northern IL, and a little less than that to the east.  Would probably fluff up to several inches if LSRs cooperate this time.  The Euro continues to be north of the GFS though, so I'm hoping the GFS is right with this one lol.

Merry Christmas everyone!

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14 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Fair point, but that’s not exactly impressive. Everyone has such low expectations here. Seeing 4” of snow over 2 weeks is not anything to be excited about. If it were November or March, that’s one thing...but 4” of snow in a 2 week period in DJF is bad.

Our climo is horrendous...but we can always hope for more. :)

I'm just a little excited over the snow yesterday due to the dearth of snowfall recently. In fact, the 7.3" so far in December beats all of the other months of 2017 put together (6.4" Jan.-Apr).

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24 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Please God tell me the next week is not going to be cold and dry here in East Central Indiana.

Sometimes God just says no. And those temps are probably optimistic.

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 16.
Thursday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 9.
Friday
Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19.
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Party like it's 1899. February 1899, that is, when perhaps multiple 1050mb or 1060mb high pressures pushed below zero temperatures into the Southeast. Washington DC got epic snow totals in Feb. 1899. There's just a bit of snow in Washington DC here on this map (details probably not that important at this point)

8sw41iv.png

 

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past several GFS runs continue to be pretty friendly for Iowa/northern IL, and points east for that Thursday clipper.  Nice broad swath of 0.2" precip over Iowa into northern IL, and a little less than that to the east.  Would probably fluff up to several inches if LSRs cooperate this time.  The Euro continues to be north of the GFS though, so I'm hoping the GFS is right with this one lol.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Merry Christmas to you too!

Yeah, I'm hoping for GFS solution, although it will be a freshener at best. The Euro is north as you said, and the Canadian is sheared to shreds. I am pinning my hopes on the Friday/Saturday system.

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15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'd say 4" in 2 weeks is not bad the farther south one gets from I-80.  Not very good though.  North of there, I'd agree that the bar should be higher than that.

I think he meant he got 4" in one day, not 2 weeks lol. In the last 2 weeks I have gotten snowfalls of 6.7", 4.7", and 4.0" (plus some other light stuff). My climo is snowier than Chicagos but not much. The western portion of the sub has not had a good start to the season but hopefully it changes for the snow weenies there. What snow they have is clearly going nowhere though as we head into deep winter.

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7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The past several GFS runs continue to be pretty friendly for Iowa/northern IL, and points east for that Thursday clipper.  Nice broad swath of 0.2" precip over Iowa into northern IL, and a little less than that to the east.  Would probably fluff up to several inches if LSRs cooperate this time.  The Euro continues to be north of the GFS though, so I'm hoping the GFS is right with this one lol.

Merry Christmas everyone!

I guess though its still too soon to latch on to those model runs just yet, with DSM office calling for an inch in the central part of the state thus favoring a more conservative solution. Will be interesting to see how this evolves when we are 24-36 hours out and I am twiddling my thumbs waiting for 18z runs

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It's subtle, but the GFS has trended drier with the Thu clipper for 3 runs in a row.  Unfortunately it's trending towards the Euro.  Hope trends don't continue.  Starting to think that unless you live by a Great Lake, or live in southeast MI this winter is gonna be another **** show. :(

Fortunately the CFS and Euro monthlies are suggestive of a wetter pattern next month and beyond, but yeah, it's gotta actually come to fruition.  

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36 minutes ago, rolltide_130 said:

 

The western death ridge straight out of hell is back and the GFS doesn't want to get rid of it at all on the latest op run. UGH 

Well we are heading into the coldest time of the year, it's supposed to be cold. Just be grateful this isn't happening during Spring.

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9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

It's subtle, but the GFS has trended drier with the Thu clipper for 3 runs in a row.  Unfortunately it's trending towards the Euro.  Hope trends don't continue.  Starting to think that unless you live by a Great Lake, or live in southeast MI this winter is gonna be another **** show. :(

And the NAM has really been and is even more now, the scary one for the Thurs storm. It has eliminated snow for us. The GFS is subtle but a couple more trends further in that direction and it will do the same. A shame. 

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