IWXwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Now that today's system is starting to wind down out this way I'm starting to pay more attention to the medium range stuff. Looks like a nice parade of clippers on the way, with the next one of interest coming around Thursday. I'm liking the more west-northwest/east-southeast orientation of this "parade" compared to the more northwesterly orientated one a few weeks back. As you would expect there's some differences between the Euro and GFS with Thursday's clipper. The Euro is pretty far north compared to the GFS, at least on the op runs. The next one appears on both the Euro and GFS around New Years. This one looks pretty potent, but is hauling ass in that fast flow. If we can get it to amplify and slow down we could have a pretty nice snowstorm to bring in the new year. I'm hoping that you guys out that way can score on the projected setup. Clipper patterns don't always pay off (see MBY), but there's always the chance, as you said, to get one amped. It will most likely be a couple of whiffs to the south for me. I'll just have enjoy my snow cover and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: Pretty bland pattern. Likely to warm up after the 28th as well. Just didn't deliver. It seems like the pattern this winter in order to get snow will be right when it's changing from warm to cold...or cold to warm. In addition, too much of a progressive flow for lots of development. Then, IF things slow down, the SE ridge will flex its muscles and cause a cutter. We have already seen this in the modeling every time a deeper storm (which hasn't materialized yet) shows up in a model's pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 "Likely to warm up after the 28th"......ah.....NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Pretty bland pattern. Likely to warm up after the 28th as well. Just didn't deliver. Right now, I'm sitting at 3.9" of didn't deliver and it's still delivering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Right now, I'm sitting at 3.9" of didn't deliver and it's still delivering. Fair point, but that’s not exactly impressive. Everyone has such low expectations here. Seeing 4” of snow over 2 weeks is not anything to be excited about. If it were November or March, that’s one thing...but 4” of snow in a 2 week period in DJF is bad. Our climo is horrendous...but we can always hope for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 OOps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Fair point, but that’s not exactly impressive. Everyone has such low expectations here. Seeing 4” of snow over 2 weeks is not anything to be excited about. If it were November or March, that’s one thing...but 4” of snow in a 2 week period in DJF is bad. Our climo is horrendous...but we can always hope for more. I'd say 4" in 2 weeks is not bad the farther south one gets from I-80. Not very good though. North of there, I'd agree that the bar should be higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'd say 4" in 2 weeks is not bad the farther south one gets from I-80. Not very good though. North of there, I'd agree that the bar should be higher than that. Yeah, he lives in Ohio, not the UP snow belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The past several GFS runs continue to be pretty friendly for Iowa/northern IL, and points east for that Thursday clipper. Nice broad swath of 0.2" precip over Iowa into northern IL, and a little less than that to the east. Would probably fluff up to several inches if LSRs cooperate this time. The Euro continues to be north of the GFS though, so I'm hoping the GFS is right with this one lol. Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Please God tell me the next week is not going to be cold and dry here in East Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 14 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Fair point, but that’s not exactly impressive. Everyone has such low expectations here. Seeing 4” of snow over 2 weeks is not anything to be excited about. If it were November or March, that’s one thing...but 4” of snow in a 2 week period in DJF is bad. Our climo is horrendous...but we can always hope for more. I'm just a little excited over the snow yesterday due to the dearth of snowfall recently. In fact, the 7.3" so far in December beats all of the other months of 2017 put together (6.4" Jan.-Apr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Please God tell me the next week is not going to be cold and dry here in East Central Indiana. Sometimes God just says no. And those temps are probably optimistic. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind around 10 mph. Tuesday Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Thursday Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 16. Thursday Night Cloudy, with a low around 9. Friday Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Party like it's 1899. February 1899, that is, when perhaps multiple 1050mb or 1060mb high pressures pushed below zero temperatures into the Southeast. Washington DC got epic snow totals in Feb. 1899. There's just a bit of snow in Washington DC here on this map (details probably not that important at this point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The past several GFS runs continue to be pretty friendly for Iowa/northern IL, and points east for that Thursday clipper. Nice broad swath of 0.2" precip over Iowa into northern IL, and a little less than that to the east. Would probably fluff up to several inches if LSRs cooperate this time. The Euro continues to be north of the GFS though, so I'm hoping the GFS is right with this one lol. Merry Christmas everyone! Merry Christmas to you too! Yeah, I'm hoping for GFS solution, although it will be a freshener at best. The Euro is north as you said, and the Canadian is sheared to shreds. I am pinning my hopes on the Friday/Saturday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Please God tell me the next week is not going to be cold and dry here in East Central Indiana. One positive is the snow here won't melt but I'd sure like to keep building a snow pack. I have not done that in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Gfs ensembles are not bad with the late week clipper. Clippers have produced well here so far so I'm ready to keep it up. And hopefully spread the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 15 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'd say 4" in 2 weeks is not bad the farther south one gets from I-80. Not very good though. North of there, I'd agree that the bar should be higher than that. I think he meant he got 4" in one day, not 2 weeks lol. In the last 2 weeks I have gotten snowfalls of 6.7", 4.7", and 4.0" (plus some other light stuff). My climo is snowier than Chicagos but not much. The western portion of the sub has not had a good start to the season but hopefully it changes for the snow weenies there. What snow they have is clearly going nowhere though as we head into deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The past several GFS runs continue to be pretty friendly for Iowa/northern IL, and points east for that Thursday clipper. Nice broad swath of 0.2" precip over Iowa into northern IL, and a little less than that to the east. Would probably fluff up to several inches if LSRs cooperate this time. The Euro continues to be north of the GFS though, so I'm hoping the GFS is right with this one lol. Merry Christmas everyone! I guess though its still too soon to latch on to those model runs just yet, with DSM office calling for an inch in the central part of the state thus favoring a more conservative solution. Will be interesting to see how this evolves when we are 24-36 hours out and I am twiddling my thumbs waiting for 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Been busy with Christmas stuff, but a quick look at the Euro shows well below temps right on through day 10. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It's subtle, but the GFS has trended drier with the Thu clipper for 3 runs in a row. Unfortunately it's trending towards the Euro. Hope trends don't continue. Starting to think that unless you live by a Great Lake, or live in southeast MI this winter is gonna be another **** show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: It's subtle, but the GFS has trended drier with the Thu clipper for 3 runs in a row. Unfortunately it's trending towards the Euro. Hope trends don't continue. Starting to think that unless you live by a Great Lake, or live in southeast MI this winter is gonna be another **** show. Fortunately the CFS and Euro monthlies are suggestive of a wetter pattern next month and beyond, but yeah, it's gotta actually come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The Friday night/Saturday potential looks somewhat interesting. Should have some high ratios with it leading to 2-4"/3-5" fluff. GFS seems to be the only one not seeing it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 00z GFS is basically my idea of hell to sum things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: 00z GFS is basically my idea of hell to sum things up. The western death ridge straight out of hell is back and the GFS doesn't want to get rid of it at all on the latest op run. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 36 minutes ago, rolltide_130 said: The western death ridge straight out of hell is back and the GFS doesn't want to get rid of it at all on the latest op run. UGH Well we are heading into the coldest time of the year, it's supposed to be cold. Just be grateful this isn't happening during Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Well there goes my balls on January 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 hours ago, cyclone77 said: It's subtle, but the GFS has trended drier with the Thu clipper for 3 runs in a row. Unfortunately it's trending towards the Euro. Hope trends don't continue. Starting to think that unless you live by a Great Lake, or live in southeast MI this winter is gonna be another **** show. And the NAM has really been and is even more now, the scary one for the Thurs storm. It has eliminated snow for us. The GFS is subtle but a couple more trends further in that direction and it will do the same. A shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 14 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Considering the GFS's score this month, I would not take one iota of its says past 84hours. It is that bad. I was wondering how the GFS was scoring. Pretty bad then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Spot said: I was wondering how the GFS was scoring. Pretty bad then? I never remember the link for the verification scores but I saw somebody saying that it was basically performing like the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 0z NAM looks GFS like for the weekend potential. It loses the Friday/Saturday wave and by hour 84 looks like its setting up the bigger storm that GFS has for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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