Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder what the difference is between the Kuchera map on Pivotal and the one on COD.  They don't quite match.  The latter one gives me like 2 feet so I'mma go with that.  

Focus. JI rule...stay focused.

[OHweather]

If the trend of the winter so far of medium to long range cold not being nearly as extreme as modeled continues, have to think that leaves the door pretty wide open for a more amped solution late next week.  Being in Ohio I naturally worry about rain with that setup, but the cold source to our north should be good so maybe, just maybe this is the big, soothing storm that we need.  There have certainly been a lot of juicy op runs and ensemble members over the last few days off and on...though I'd like to see the EPS dive in more to get super excited.  A lot of members have some snow in that timeframe, but many are suppressed and not many have a huge storm like the GFS.  At least the 12z operational had some sort of middle ground solution with a decent, but not extreme storm. 

[Stebo]

00z GFS run was damn close to being one hell of a storm. It is still very good for a large area but with that second piece of energy diving in from the NW, it gave me shades of some of the big dog storms for this region.

[mimillman]

Clear that the 6-8 day period brings some potential to the eastern half of the country. All that's left to do is wait a couple days to see if this can actually materialize.

[snowlover2]

Yeah 0z GFS was another nice looking run. Can't help but to get somewhat excited for this time period.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

00z GFS run was damn close to being one hell of a storm. It is still very good for a large area but with that second piece of energy diving in from the NW, it gave me shades of some of the big dog storms for this region.

Visual 

[Hoosier]

With higher ratios, the GEM managed a band of 6-10", and it really didn't even have much of a "storm" per se.

Just tremendous potential if everything comes together right.  But that's the tricky part as things often don't.

 

[RCNYILWX]

Best operational Euro run of the winter for the subforum tonight after arguably the worst run for last night's 00z lol. Light to moderate events earlier on then an extended event with LES/lake enhancement late week, then another event at the end of the run.

 

Obviously can't take anything that far out verbatim, but main takeaway is 2 consecutive op runs lost the horribly suppressed meatgrinder PV look of the 00z 12/21 run. Hopefully they continue to show a similarly active look.

 

 

 

 

[cyclone77]

36 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Best operational Euro run of the winter for the subforum tonight after arguably the worst run for last night's 00z lol. Light to moderate events earlier on then an extended event with LES/lake enhancement late week, then another event at the end of the run.

 

Obviously can't take anything that far out verbatim, but main takeaway is 2 consecutive op runs lost the horribly suppressed meatgrinder PV look of the 00z 12/21 run. Hopefully they continue to show a similarly active look.

 

 

 

 

Yeah the new Euro is a huge change compared to last night at this time.  Not too surprised to see it waffle a little with things beyond 120hrs, but to see such differences well within 96hrs seems pretty surprising/unusual for the EC.  For there to be such large inconsistencies like this we are definitely dealing with a pattern in which any subtle changes in timing and strength of the incoming shortwaves makes a youuuuuugggee difference.  With that being said I like the latest Euro. 

[andyhb]

I like what I see going forward in that, regardless of the exact orientation, the polar jet appears to be in control of the pattern as opposed to the sub-tropical nuisance and influence we've had for the better part of the past three years. There was definitely still a hangover from the super Nino in 15-16 last year.

[snowlover2]

Seems the big storm idea for late next week is disappearing. Energy just isn't digging as deep as was once shown.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Seems the big storm idea for late next week is disappearing. Energy just isn't digging as deep as was once shown.

On what model? The last posters only 7 hours ago were commenting on the fact it was one of the better set ups for the sub forum in quite awhile. Seems reactionary to dismiss an event over 5 days out based on one model and 1 or 2 runs of that model. To me, if we can avoid being over run by cold air and prevent suppression while keeping the baroclinic zone in and near the midwest it won't take much energy to kick off some decent overrunning episodes even minus a deep cyclone over the sub forum. Sometimes these are the best of set ups. Large broadscale overunning for a large area versus a deep low that could  potentially pull in warm air and we have to worry more about track and its effects.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Seems the big storm idea for late next week is disappearing. Energy just isn't digging as deep as was once shown.

Could come back. Models are clueless beyond 48-72 hrs. Look how this Christmas wave is trending all of a sudden. They don't know which wave will get muted or amped until short range. All the runs while the energy is out over the Pacific are mere guesses, or more like stabs in the dark really. And, the flaw of the GFS is it's prone to putting the most postive spin on everything at those ranges. Euro leans opposite it would appear, being unenthused for anything long to mid-range.

[Frog Town]

I think one needs to focus on the pattern in this case.  What the Mets see, is a pattern interacting with various tele-connections.  The models will waffle all over the place.  Patience.    

[UMB WX]

Yeah the GFS sucks but its the only model that's given me any hope of white this winter month.   I forgive it.   Outside of last december -  winter has stunk here for yrs so I'm getting pretty immune to this garbage climate in winter.  It's like living in the Mid-Atlantic or Ohio Valley -  anyway to let a snow a lover down its done so for going on almost a handful of winters in a row here

[Jonger]

45 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Yeah the GFS sucks but its the only model that's given me any hope of white this winter month.   I forgive it.   Outside of last december -  winter has stunk here for yrs so I'm getting pretty immune to this garbage climate in winter.  It's like living in the Mid-Atlantic or Ohio Valley -  anyway to let a snow a lover down its done so for going on almost a handful of winters in a row here

We pretty much live and die by clippers outside of the lake belt. The 1990's through the mid 2000's were epic for clippers. We are either too warm for snow or too cold for snow.

 

[HighTechEE]

4 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Seems the big storm idea for late next week is disappearing. Energy just isn't digging as deep as was once shown.

I just noticed that myself, but on the positive for snow chances, once the 850s go negative tomorrow night, they stay that way thru day 16 on the last few GFS runs!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

We pretty much live and die by clippers outside of the lake belt. The 1990's through the mid 2000's were epic for clippers. We are either too warm for snow or too cold for snow.

 

Clippers, cutters, and random shortwaves oh my. Our snow comes from many different sources, that's why it snows more frequently here. A good clipper pattern is winter heaven but I wouldn't say we live and die by them 

[jlauderdal]

2 hours ago, UMB WX said:

Yeah the GFS sucks but its the only model that's given me any hope of white this winter month.   I forgive it.   Outside of last december -  winter has stunk here for yrs so I'm getting pretty immune to this garbage climate in winter.  It's like living in the Mid-Atlantic or Ohio Valley -  anyway to let a snow a lover down its done so for going on almost a handful of winters in a row here

as we say in the tropics..the gfs is Good For S**t

 

if you want a major hurricane model storm then look to the gfs

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Lets don't over do it. The blocking in the pacific is actually starting to breaking down by Christmas(and we are close enough now to see that beginning) and that narrows the window between the energy and upstream energy to kick a major phase.

Perhaps. Although my scenario will be more popular on the board.

[snowlover2]

18z GFS looking better with the late next week threat. Looks pretty similar to what the 12z Euro showed.

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It's crazy how quiet this forum is compared to the Southeastern Forum. So i'm just going to assume that the southeast is in a better location for snow and ice over the next 10 days than the midwest is.

There's a lot of members who have either moved out of this sub, or just don't post anymore.  Kind of sad, but it is what it is.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

There's a lot of members who have either moved out of this sub, or just don't post anymore.  Kind of sad, but it is what it is.

Yeah, those who are here though are very active posters especially when a storm of decent magnitude shows up.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

There's a lot of members who have either moved out of this sub, or just don't post anymore.  Kind of sad, but it is what it is.

I miss the eternal optimism and slant sticking of “Geos”

[ConvectiveIA]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

There's a lot of members who have either moved out of this sub, or just don't post anymore.  Kind of sad, but it is what it is.

My location is at the extreme western edge of this sub-forum but the central states subforum is much less active and very spread out in participation

[snowlover2]

0z GFS took steps toward a better looking late next week storm. Actually had a fairly long duration event from the mid atlantic southwest to Texas. Energy dug into the southwest but took its time ejecting keeping everything in the south.

[RCNYILWX]

0z GFS took steps toward a better looking late next week storm. Actually had a fairly long duration event from the mid atlantic southwest to Texas. Energy dug into the southwest but took its time ejecting keeping everything in the south.

GEM also made a better attempt, was closer to getting there than GFS even.

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[hlcater]

Euro has a copious amount of systems which benefit almost everyone in the sub. Looks like it has the GFS system around FH 138 and another at FH180. Similar to the pair of systems in close proximity idea that has shown up on many models. 

[Hoosier]

18z GFS has a better look with the late week/weekend setup... handles the trough differently.

[cyclone77]

Now that today's system is starting to wind down out this way I'm starting to pay more attention to the medium range stuff.  Looks like a nice parade of clippers on the way, with the next one of interest coming around Thursday.  I'm liking the more west-northwest/east-southeast orientation of this "parade" compared to the more northwesterly orientated one a few weeks back.  As you would expect there's some differences between the Euro and GFS with Thursday's clipper.  The Euro is pretty far north compared to the GFS, at least on the op runs.  The next one appears on both the Euro and GFS around New Years.  This one looks pretty potent, but is hauling ass in that fast flow.  If we can get it to amplify and slow down we could have a pretty nice snowstorm to bring in the new year.