Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[cyclone77]

The Euro is looking far less optimistic on a very snowy later half of next week compared to past few GFS runs.  Let's hope the GFS is correct in sniffing out a nice storm in that time period.  It has been fairly consistent up to this point in showing something around then.

[snowlover2]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro is looking far less optimistic on a very snowy later half of next week compared to past few GFS runs.  Let's hope the GFS is correct in sniffing out a nice storm in that time period.  It has been fairly consistent up to this point in showing something around then.

Pretty surprising to see it basically disappear. It will probably be back on the 12z run.

[RCNYILWX]

The Euro is looking far less optimistic on a very snowy later half of next week compared to past few GFS runs.  Let's hope the GFS is correct in sniffing out a nice storm in that time period.  It has been fairly consistent up to this point in showing something around then.

That run is a clinic on how to suppress/shred every threat with too much fast flow northern stream dominance and high pressure. Just by comparing the Euro and 00z GFS you can see how the TPV lobes extend farther south on the Euro, compressing the flow too much. Hopefully the ensembles still remain more optimistic.

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[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

That run is a clinic on how to suppress/shred every threat with too much fast flow northern stream dominance and high pressure. Just by comparing the Euro and 00z GFS you can see how the TPV lobes extend farther south on the Euro, compressing the flow too much. Hopefully the ensembles still remain more optimistic.

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Been my worry all along, last period we were lucky enough to get a couple of systems out of it but that was basically being shown ahead of the last cold snap as well. We need to flush this -EPO/+PNA pattern or we will be fighting this all winter

[RCNYILWX]

Been my worry all along, last period we were lucky enough to get a couple of systems out of it but that was basically being shown ahead of the last cold snap as well. We need to flush this -EPO/+PNA pattern or we will be fighting this all winter

This isn't a +PNA being modeled moving forward unlike what we just had, it's more of a neutral to -PNA (also shown on EPS teleconnection forecasts on WxBell). The extreme -EPO blocking will dislodge lobes of the TPV and we just need them to not crush everything south, to allow for lower amplitude semi- zonal flow. Functionally though, what the 00Z ECMWF op shows acts like a +PNA because of the crusher PV lobes. A -EPO is preferable if everything else can evolve favorably because of the cold air it supplies. The 00z Euro is a great demonstration of how everything can go wrong though.

 

 

 

[Stebo]

Just now, RCNYILWX said:

This isn't a +PNA being modeled moving forward unlike what we just had, it's more of a neutral to -PNA (also shown on EPS teleconnection forecasts on WxBell). The extreme -EPO blocking will dislodge lobes of the TPV and we just need them to not crush everything south, to allow for lower amplitude semi- zonal flow. Functionally though, what the 00Z ECMWF op shows acts like a +PNA because of the crusher PV lobes.

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Yeah it isn't as off the wall of a +PNA, which is why the models keep wavering with something for our region. We need the PNA to go full on negative.

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

This isn't a +PNA being modeled moving forward unlike what we just had, it's more of a neutral to -PNA (also shown on EPS teleconnection forecasts on WxBell). The extreme -EPO blocking will dislodge lobes of the TPV and we just need them to not crush everything south, to allow for lower amplitude semi- zonal flow. Functionally though, what the 00Z ECMWF op shows acts like a +PNA because of the crusher PV lobes.

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So basically too much extreme cold pushing everything south? And too much downstream confluence for storm systems?

[RCNYILWX]

Yeah it isn't as off the wall of a +PNA, which is why the models keep wavering with something for our region. We need the PNA to go full on negative.

Agree, a full blown -PNA would be better, though there the concern would be too dominant of a southeast Ridge, but it's worth the risk to get the bigger systems. It's a delicate balancing act. Not gonna get hopeless over 1 Euro run, because it could easily go back to a more favorable flow pattern next week the next run.

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[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Agree, a full blown -PNA would be better, though there the concern would be too dominant of a southeast Ridge, but it's worth the risk to get the bigger systems. It's a delicate balancing act. Not gonna get hopeless over 1 Euro run, because it could easily go back to a more favorable flow pattern next week the next run.

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I would take every chance in the world on a -PNA, most of our big dogs come out of a -PNA and an open gulf. I mean I had 8 inches of snow in my yard at one point and it blasted away to nothing within 2 days because lack of moisture in it. Fluffy snow isn't good to build up a snow base.

[Powerball]

8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sam Lashley inserting a little humor into his afternoon discussion concerning late next week:

Day 7 thru 9 looking potentially interesting with possible southern
stream wave lifting northeast with residual arctic air still in 
place. This has actually led to the more brief intrusion of the 
very cold arctic air with slight moderating trend Tue into Wed in
the GEM and GFS. Still a lot to digest and GEM showing potential 
for a northwest track that might yield some type of liquid pcpn 
across the area. However, ECMWF says what system with a very weak
and suppressed look. For now, remember the plinko game and think 
of it as you look at these solutions and the output that will 
likely be coming to your favorite social media sites shortly.

That's seriously what the love the most about NWS AFDs.

 

[geddyweather]

Goodness. 06z GFS is back south and pummels everyone from IA to NJ from Dec 29 to Dec 31.

Some big time fantasy stuff right here:

[snowlover2]

12z GFS has 2 waves. A small one around the 28th and a big one gets going a day later both brush the far southern parts of the sub. 12z GGEM also has 2 waves but both are way south.

[hlcater]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS has 2 waves. A small one around the 28th and a big one gets going a day later both brush the far southern parts of the sub. 12z GGEM also has 2 waves but both are way south.

It also cuts off the primary energy and retrogrates it SWward toward the Baja peninsula. Doesnt appear that it ever fully ejects.

[CoachLB]

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

This will be a wait and see situation, when we have hardly had model consistency within 84 hours we sure as hell ain't gonna have much this far out.

[Hoosier]

The Euro doesn't look half bad at 168 hours.  Maybe something can come of it.

[snowlover2]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The Euro doesn't look half bad at 168 hours.  Maybe something can come of it.

Looks like a 2 wave event. Some snow for the first, and more snow for the second except I-71 and south get the WTOD on the second wave.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Looks like a 2 wave event. Some snow for the first, and more snow for the second except I-71 and south get the WTOD on the second wave.

Yeah, decent run...at least a lot better than previous.

[Hoosier]

18z GFS is "brewing"

[snowlover2]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z GFS is "brewing"

Looks like one big long duration storm with I-70 being the battlezone.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Looks like one big long duration storm with I-70 being the battlezone.

We've said that a few times over the years.

[IWXwx]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z GFS is "brewing"

Just one more time in my life, I'd like to see 48 hrs straight of snow falling. The GFS is gonna break my heart.

[hlcater]

Another clown storm on the GFS.

 

 

[snowlover2]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We've said that a few times over the years.

No doubt.

[WxMatt21]

9 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Another clown storm on the GFS.

 

 

I mean, I'd rather have models grasping at SOMETHING widespread instead of the moisture-starved clippers we seemed to hit or miss the past couple of weeks

[Hoosier]

I wonder what the difference is between the Kuchera map on Pivotal and the one on COD.  They don't quite match.  The latter one gives me like 2 feet so I'mma go with that.  

[Guest]

Some of the best flips to a good winter after a poor December occurrs around the New Year.

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[IWXwx]

4 minutes ago, Guest said:

Some of the best flips to a good winter after a poor December occurrs around the New Year.

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Alek, you've been awfully optimistic in past couple of posts.

[Indystorm]

Yep, GFS loves to keep showing us the big dog right when I hope to travel back to Indpls area from visiting family in nw IN.  I'll just have to wait and see if this is fantasy or reality and adjust accordingly.

[Hoosier]

This is nice... apparently they are leaning against the uber dry/suppressed scenarios.  I think we will know more in the next few days about whether this big storm idea has legs.