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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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4 hours ago, Baum said:

I'd be surprised if we don't see a white Christmas. Given the fact we haven't encountered a real synoptic snow event in over a year that's a big deal. My optimism runs counter to most of the pessimism that permeates this board. Another fine write up by LOT again this AM....btw.

I am cautiously optimistic for white in time for Christmas, though as we have seen with the model handling of events lately, can't really take anything for granted.

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NoDoppler4TnySandz

NoDoppler4TnySandz

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2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The Canadian is even more ridiculous, has a Christmas storm and the 27th one

THIS!!!!! Let's crank up the winter!!! 

Next week's potential looks quite nice....even if MBY tends to be south of the good action....lots of time to correct all that, but the signal has been persistent the last couple of days.

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ILSNOW

ILSNOW

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z still has a big dog.  And talk about a classic ice setup with a sprawling banana 1050 mb high to the north.

I know it’s a week out and lots can and will change but this system is showing 2 total inches of precipitation in Chicago with.48 being ice and 14 inches of snow. Been a long time since we have seen that.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I have precip for at least 60 hours straight. I know its still far out but wonder if it's too far north since it's not showing the snow from the Christmas eve system thus making it warmer instead of colder?

It could be too far north but I don't know if it would necessarily be for that reason. I look at pre-existing snowcover as a relatively minor player when it comes to future systems.  Like maybe it would keep your temps a little colder than they otherwise would be, but a system can still track north if the setup dictates.  

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

I know it’s a week out and lots can and will change but this system is showing 2 total inches of precipitation in Chicago with.48 being ice and 14 inches of snow. Been a long time since we have seen that.

I'm always a little skeptical when models try to show such big amounts of 2 or more winter precip types in the same spot.  Usually it seems to go one way or the other.  Not that it can't happen.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Sam Lashley inserting a little humor into his afternoon discussion concerning late next week: 

Day 7 thru 9 looking potentially interesting with possible southern
stream wave lifting northeast with residual arctic air still in 
place. This has actually led to the more brief intrusion of the 
very cold arctic air with slight moderating trend Tue into Wed in
the GEM and GFS. Still a lot to digest and GEM showing potential 
for a northwest track that might yield some type of liquid pcpn 
across the area. However, ECMWF says what system with a very weak
and suppressed look. For now, remember the plinko game and think 
of it as you look at these solutions and the output that will 
likely be coming to your favorite social media sites shortly.
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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sam Lashley inserting a little humor into his afternoon discussion concerning late next week: 


Day 7 thru 9 looking potentially interesting with possible southern
stream wave lifting northeast with residual arctic air still in 
place. This has actually led to the more brief intrusion of the 
very cold arctic air with slight moderating trend Tue into Wed in
the GEM and GFS. Still a lot to digest and GEM showing potential 
for a northwest track that might yield some type of liquid pcpn 
across the area. However, ECMWF says what system with a very weak
and suppressed look. For now, remember the plinko game and think 
of it as you look at these solutions and the output that will 
likely be coming to your favorite social media sites shortly.

That is hilarious!  Gil would be proud:P  As much as I want to get my hopes up, especially from the always pessimistic but surprisingly optimistic IND discussion below, I'm going to be glass half empty for now.  Disappointment reigns along the east half of hwy. 28.  

A very active weather pattern will extend through the remainder of
the holiday weekend and into early next week as all signs are
pointing towards a transition to much colder weather with multiple
chances for snow not only through the extended but through the
last days of 2017. The details remain in question but model
guidance is starting to convene on the main features late weekend
and early next week. The potential for snow on the ground
Christmas Day is most certainly on the table at this point with
confidence beginning to rise. Forecast trended more towards the
global solutions and their ensembles /ECMWF and GGEM/ as opposed
to the wildly erratic 12Z GFS. The 12Z version of the GFS looks
markedly different than the 00Z and is not engendering much
confidence in its solution at this time...


The extended period begins as the storm system bringing precip on
Saturday begins to move away from the region. The frontal boundary
will drift southeast with high pressure briefly establishing late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Could still see light snow
Saturday evening before precip ends...but expecting generally dry
weather through midday Sunday. A trailing upper level wave will
track into the lower Great Lakes Sunday afternoon and night and
would bring the potential for a quick thump of snow for much of
the forecast area. ECMWF...GGEM and bulk of their ensemble members
capture this feature well but differ in the details. 12Z ECMWF in
particular bringing a strengthening wave aloft that interacts
with and spins up a surface low over the eastern Great Lakes by
early Monday. Still some details to be worked out over the next
couple days...but regardless of what happens Saturday...this
system Sunday afternoon and night could be what lays down a
blanket of white for Christmas morning...



Beyond the seven day...cold temperatures look to linger and some
signals beginning to show up on potential for a winter storm to
impact parts of the Ohio Valley towards the end of next week.
Active winter pattern for the next 10 to 14 days for the region
appears to be growing.

  

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WxMatt21

WxMatt21

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

All eyes turn on post-Christmas energy. Can this winter get a real snowstorm going for once?

The past few days of model riding is a good reminder why it is best not to get too excited about a particular feature until it's within at least 72 hours. 

In my weather department, we have a "48 hour" rule when it comes to making snow maps. Of course, even when things look good at 48 hours, it doesn't take much for things to take a stomach-churning wrong turn at the last minute. 

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

All eyes turn on post-Christmas energy. Can this winter get a real snowstorm going for once?

0z GGEM is way south but gets light snow as far north as SE IN/southern two-thirds of Ohio. 0z GFS is a two parter and farther north. Basically from Detroit to Chicago to most of Iowa stay snow for long duration. South of that is mix/rain.

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