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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Weird to see the GGEM the slowest with the s/w. That really is the key. Looks like a pump and dump of cold air anyway you go about it. By the end of the month the pac jet starts its run.................pray the ggem is right for once in its life.

IWX jumps the gun with an SWS already for the Christmas cold wave. Now that's early! Guessing their confidence is pretty darn high on that component

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Weird to see the GGEM the slowest with the s/w. That really is the key. Looks like a pump and dump of cold air anyway you go about it. By the end of the month the pac jet starts its run.................pray the ggem is right for once in its life.

You should change your screen name to "pacific jet."

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55 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

The late next week storm continues to look impressive on both 0z GFS/GGEM. GGEM has 48 straight hours and probably longer of snow for parts of IL/IN/OH. GFS did something similar but had 2 waves of snow.

The long duration aspect is striking, and that has been advertised on multiple models and multiple runs.

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Carbon copy of the ukmet. A big step away from a good system though, the upper low is absolutely destroying the southern stream and shearing out the energy. 
Considering our almost complete lack of snow on this side of the lake this month, we'd pay money for that run to verify

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Verbatim it's a nice high ratio advisory type event for here. Needless to say, confidence remains low in that period until we see some sort of consistency.

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The GFS is a holdout at this point with not indicating anything.

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Considering our almost complete lack of snow on this side of the lake this month, we'd pay money for that run to verify emoji1.png

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Oh don't get me wrong, it is a nice little event but I am looking for something spectacular which this would be just a nice holiday treat.

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Watching the latest runs of the GFS, I'm reminded of a casino one arm bandit.  BAR - BAR -

                                                                                                                                   BAR

 

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7 minutes ago, DAFF said:

Watching the latest runs of the GFS, I'm reminded of a casino one arm bandit.  BAR - BAR -

                                                                                                                                   BAR

 

a few days ago there was talk of 50's on friday for chicago, thats been blown to bits so thats progress..just not enough moisture to do much, oh well..maybe end of next week

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

All I want is snow for the holiday...I don't care how it happens.

I'd be surprised if we don't see a white Christmas. Given the fact we haven't encountered a real synoptic snow event in over a year that's a big deal. My optimism runs counter to most of the pessimism that permeates this board. Another fine write up by LOT again this AM....btw.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

I'd be surprised if we don't see a white Christmas. Given the fact we haven't encountered a real synoptic snow event in over a year that's a big deal. My optimism runs counter to most of the pessimism that permeates this board. Another fine write up by LOT again this AM....btw.

Chicago's snow drought last winter was crazy. But dont forget the March snowstorm lol

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Caution flags acknowledged with run total ensemble mean snowfall products, but the last 2 runs of the EPS mean are the best looking I can recall for the subforum as a whole since these graphics became readily available. Looking at the individual members, there's very few total clunkers and more solid to substantial hits than "meh" members.

 

Perhaps this means there will be less failure modes moving forward during the cold -EPO driven pattern for as long as it lasts to get more areas in on the fun outside of central/northern Wisconsin, MI and the lake effect belts.

 

The main worry will be suppression at times if the TPV crushes short-waves south. It does however look like there will be periods of quasi-zonal flow with embedded waves as higher heights try to impinge northward tightening the baroclinic zone, while the folded over -EPO will act to provide excellent low level cold. This will be a good setup for episodes of overrunning snow.

 

We also can't rule out strong synoptic systems, as energy will be able to come ashore from the Pacific under the ridge, vs. what happened with the high amplitude +PNA ridge that set up too far east.

 

I was certainly too optimistic too soon for what turned out to be a crappy pattern except for LES and those that scored on the clippers. But I think there are good reasons to be optimistic for the late December through early January period and hopefully beyond if the southeast ridge doesn't become too dominant. After whatever happens, if anything, on Christmas Eve, there's pretty good agreement/consistency in the first widespread threat being mid to late next week.

04af7474b38faa5954e69d88e6310e5b.jpg&key=34f9ededddfd4dc521232404d841493b39706b028de0b27b7ade9d8eaf4041cceec988e1599bc64772eedd6dd73bfde6.jpg&key=b30f434c1d1a505b40b81790ae592907082e45e35d6901dd758defd53f4e07ed

 

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Yes, I'm definitely liking the model trend for next week.  They are backing off of the extreme cold with the PV diving down into Iowa.  The trend is toward solid cold(highs in the teens instead of near or below zero) with some good pacific energy able to move west to east across the country and pull moisture from a wide-open gulf(finally) up into the cold.  Many of us could at least see some light to moderate snow accumulation.

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