Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[IWXwx]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Only thing I'd feel remotely optimistic in saying is that some area south of I-80 should have snow for Christmas.  

Not disagreeing but I just think if that Euro output verifies, I will declare:

 

 

 

[snowlover2]

9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Not disagreeing but I just think if that Euro output verifies, I will declare:

 

 

 

Maybe but GFS/GGEM also showed some form of Apps runner so we could be seeing the general track coming into focus.

[HighTechEE]

2 hours ago, JNichols said:

So how close to Christmas is it before we can actually say "This is probably what is going to happen".  LOL As of right now it looks like Western Kentucky is going to miss out on most of it  I was really hoping for a White Christmas! 

When Buckeye says its going to happen!

[Jackstraw]

 

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

You gotta love all this model madness with each batch of guidance showing so many different scenarios.  Makes it pretty fun I guess.

Lol, something better give or we're all gonna be here...

 

[Hoosier]

Some pipe bursting cold on the 18z GFS. Some of these numbers are with no snow on the ground (southeast Iowa eastward).  

 

[Chambana]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Some pipe bursting cold on the 18z GFS. Some of these numbers are with no snow on the ground (southeast Iowa eastward).  

 

Haven’t we seen this before? I always feel like long range temperature output factor in snowcover, only to correct themselves when it becomes within appropriate range. It’s been so mild here, idk if the ground is completely frozen yet lol. 

[andyhb]

This current and most of the forecast regime for the next week+ is a good example of how all cold generally isn't a great thing. There's too much suppression of lee cyclogenesis occurring due to the baroclinic zone being so far south. There's too much confluence downstream as well and it's leading to the shortwaves getting sheared out with eastward progression (such as Friday's shortwave).

[Hoosier]

20 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Haven’t we seen this before? I always feel like long range temperature output factor in snowcover, only to correct themselves when it becomes within appropriate range. It’s been so mild here, idk if the ground is completely frozen yet lol. 

I'm not exactly sure how the models handle snow that hasn't actually fallen yet.  Some models seem like they factor it in as the progged thermal fields appear colder in areas with snow.

The 18z GFS would be an interesting case in how cold can it get if the PV drops in over areas with no snowcover.  I can recall getting below zero without snowcover, but I don't remember getting well below zero (say -10F or colder) without it.  Upstream snowcover does matter too though, and it looks like we will have snow on the ground at least in parts of the Midwest.

[Jonger]

6 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

12z GGEM is a bit chilly in the Upper Midwest on days 7-9.    For entertainment only...

 

-43F.

Yea, that's a bit painful.

[iluvsnow]

I can tell you on Christmas day 1983 we had no snow cover per see in Dayton and Indianapolis and the temperatures never got warmer than 6 or 7 below zero. My wife and I drove from Dayton to Indy to celebrate Christmas at my parents. Winds were ferocious all day too. To this day...I have never experienced such a bitter cold feel. My face felt like it was being sand papered as I filled the gas tank.

[Snowstorms]

The Euro weeklies by mid-January are 

The current MJO state is certainly playing a role in mitigating the typical Nina pattern were familiar with (west trough, east ridge). As the MJO propagates towards phases 2-3, likely by the 2nd week of January, we may revert back to a typical Nina pattern with perhaps a thaw somewhere around then. Now the key questions are;  

Will this current upcoming pattern, influenced heavily by the MJO wave, result in some storminess?

And will the thaw be brief and we revert back to a much colder pattern towards late January-early February?

Long ways out, but lets see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks! 

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

I can tell you on Christmas day 1983 we had no snow cover per see in Dayton and Indianapolis and the temperatures never got warmer than 6 or 7 below zero. My wife and I drove from Dayton to Indy to celebrate Christmas at my parents. Winds were ferocious all day too. To this day...I have never experienced such a bitter cold feel. My face felt like it was being sand papered as I filled the gas tank.

I went back and checked 12/25/83... you're correct about no snowcover in those areas.  There was snow on the ground not far upstream though... for example, 7" in Springfield, 8" in Moline, 4" in Chicago, which undoubtedly contributed to the brutality of that airmass even in the snowless areas downstream.

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

The Euro weeklies by mid-January are 

The current MJO state is certainly playing a role in mitigating the typical Nina pattern were familiar with (west trough, east ridge). As the MJO propagates towards phases 2-3, likely by the 2nd week of January, we may revert back to a typical Nina pattern with perhaps a thaw somewhere around then. Now the key questions are;  

Will this current upcoming pattern, influenced heavily by the MJO wave, result in some storminess?

And will the thaw be brief and we revert back to a much colder pattern towards late January-early February?

Long ways out, but lets see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks! 

 

I believe the euro weeklies had next week's cold depicted as warm just a few weeks ago.

 

[Hoosier]

I'd settle for the 00z GEM. #keepChristmashopealive

[WxMatt21]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd settle for the 00z GEM. #keepChristmashopealive

Another plus is that it isn't a new idea. Just need to see some consistency, which unfortunately few, if any, of the models are providing at the moment.

[Hoosier]

The GEM is almost like a cold apocalypse.  Ok, I'm exaggerating, but it's pretty impressive.

Too early to buy it of course, but I will say, expect some potentially wild results if the Midwest actually comes under the influence of a 1060 mb high.  

[harrisale]

The way the 24th-27th period has evolved on the models in the last few days has been interesting to watch. Operationals are all over the place. 

Canadian digs the main vort a bit deeper and phases with the northern stream a bit later for that nice Xmas gift.

CMC:

GFS:

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Christmas is the event, if we have a good day tomorrow night it will have big storm. 

[cyclone77]

For this area Friday's system looks like maybe a burst of flurries at the tail end.  The secondary energy is looking weaker and weaker each run, and further suppressed/further south.  My hopes for anything other than a DAB before the end of the year is very quickly fading.  Luckily January will be rocking.

[snowlover2]

0z Euro looks similar to the GGEM.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

For this area Friday's system looks like maybe a burst of flurries at the tail end.  The secondary energy is looking weaker and weaker each run, and further suppressed/further south.  My hopes for anything other than a DAB before the end of the year is very quickly fading.  Luckily January will be rocking.

Funny I was just thinking to myself that cyclone is probably going to come in here with a pessimistic post.  Maybe I should play the lottery lol?

[Hoosier]

It would be nice if Christmas could evolve into a 1/5/14 type deal... even a poor man's version.  

Mama nature, make it happen.

[Powerball]

51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It would be nice if Christmas could evolve into a 1/5/14 type deal... even a poor man's version.  

Mama nature, make it happen.

I thought I was the only one who noticed the similarities between that storm and the upcoming setup. If I recall, that one also started off as a coastal bomb at this range. 

Another possible analog would be 12/23/2004.

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It would be nice if Christmas could evolve into a 1/5/14 type deal... even a poor man's version.  

Mama nature, make it happen.

I would take a poor mans 1/5/14. One of my favorite winter storms ever. 

[snowlover2]

12z GFS still takes the Christmas storm up the coast while the 12z GGEM has a nice snowfall for much of the OV.

[RogueWaves]

8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS still takes the Christmas storm up the coast while the 12z GGEM has a nice snowfall for much of the OV.

a LOT to sort out yet by, you guessed it "KLOT" 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS still takes the Christmas storm up the coast while the 12z GGEM has a nice snowfall for much of the OV.

Gotta like how the GGEM still manages a decent Christmas event right after the storm before.  

[geddyweather]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS still takes the Christmas storm up the coast while the 12z GGEM has a nice snowfall for much of the OV.

Gonna let my IMBY weenie side show for a moment and say that 12z GGEM run is beautiful. Been awhile since there's been that much snow during Christmas time. 

Alright, that said, we'd need quite a few things to happen for that to materialize. As of now though, just the trend itself is looking encouraging for much of the forum to see action of SOME kind. Lots to sort out yet but I'd much rather see encouraging signs of a storm like this instead of the continuation of the idle period we've been in (and looked to stay in before this drop south) since the clipper regime made it's appearance.

[JNichols]

If the cold could dip quickly enough into Western Kentucky for snow that would be great!

[Hoosier]

Long way out but end of the month looks intriguing.