hlcater Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hawkeye approved Why can't one of the "good models" show that EDIT: Although the ukie had a somewhat similar solution this morning IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Have to wonder if the GFS is crashing the cold too fast. I'm not saying yes definitively, but that would play right into the model bias. Let's see what the Euro does. I'm off to bed...hoping to wake up to a good Euro and 6Z GFS run. Good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Why can't one of the "good models" show that EDIT: Although the ukie had a somewhat similar solution this morning IIRC. If it's going to go this way we might as well hope for a super-wound up system that pulls half the precipitation around the backside of it for a half-rain / half-snow. The gentle "colorado low" type deal is not looking so likely anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Oh boy at that end of month storm on the GFS. Looks reminiscent of GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Maybe the good ol' NAVY model will pull a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Well, the 0Z EURO and 06 GFS have both trended cooler with the end-of-week system. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, blackrock said: Well, the 0Z EURO and 06 GFS have both trended cooler with the end-of-week system. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend. Pretty much think the story is written on that first wave of energy. Seems like the focus has shifted to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day period with additional energy moving along the baroclinic zone. Not a bad set up- provided it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baum said: Pretty much think the story is written on that first wave of energy. Seems like the focus has shifted to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day period with additional energy moving along the baroclinic zone. Not a bad set up- provided it occurs. Yeah, it definitely looks like there are better opportunities afterwards. Just read GRR NWS morning discussion, and they mention that models trended cooler on the late week system, and will "need to be watched." There is still a bit of hope...at least here. Even if we don't get much, the farther south it is, the less our snowpack gets obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 19 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Based on the EC's site, Windsor has recorded 20.6" of snow this month already! Can you confirm that? Sounds preposterous! Yes, I would confirm those numbers. While a few inches didn't survive the radiant warmth of the sun on asphalt and were of the 18:1 LES fluff. The month from the 7th till yesterday was daily overachieving snow. Hate watching the warmth kill the snow pack though. The ingredients of a system of importants are making signatures on the daily models further out. I myself, think true weather snowmakers are going to wait till the new year. Friday will be mostly rain to backside snow giving a C-1 coatings locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I have been using my tractor beam on this one.... New rain/snow line is running about 150 miles south of where it was yesterday on thee 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS has really beefed up snowfall chances after Xmas into the New Year. I mean that's 200+ hrs out and obviously is far from being set in stone but with a cold air mass in place and southwest flow aloft that def could bring a whopper of a storm. 0z gfs shows a fantasy storm just before the New Year. Like snow of 1-2ft. GHD part 3. Ha. If only we could lock that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Looks like the models are trending in the right direction for the late week storm, Really depends on how strong this low becomes, this run GFS is weaker which helps it from cutting so much. Also LES looking pretty good over the weekend into next week. that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 With the amount of cold air the sub will have to work with - think high pressure at ~1050mb ; it’s not going to take much moisture to produce a decent storm, nonetheless a GHD 3 that some guidance is beginning to show. Until then, local Mets have 48° tomorrow under full torch and 50’s with thunderstorms on Friday. Nothing but dirty snow piles by then, so it’ll be a clean slate for whatever decides to come to fruition for the holiday weekend and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12Z NAM has the same general idea as the more recent GFS runs. It is a bit farther north than the GFS, but it does have the tendency to show systems farthest north. GEM is still blowing it up, but is farther south and east than it was on 0Z run. We'll see what the EURO shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GEM dishing out some model porn for the western sub this morning. Wish the other models would board this train lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GEM dishing out some model porn for the western sub this morning. Wish the other models would board this train lol. Smash and dash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GEM dishing out some model porn for the western sub this morning. Wish the other models would board this train lol. That would be great for you guys, but I will pass on the nearly 2 inches of precip. it is showing for here. Several inches of snow and an inch and a half of rain? No, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GEM dishing out some model porn for the western sub this morning. Wish the other models would board this train lol. Also showing a decent system for Xmas Day for the eastern parts of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, harrisale said: Also showing a decent system for Xmas Day for the eastern parts of the sub. Yep a nice west apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GEM dishing out some model porn for the western sub this morning. Wish the other models would board this train lol.That run gets , would be fun though. I suppose since run to run continuity has been crappy we can't completely rule it out either. 00z Euro deepened the wave along the cold front like the GEM is doing but not nearly to the extent of the GEM. A few 00z Euro ensemble members also had a similar progression. Very low probability outcome, but still within the spectrum of possibilities. I'm hoping at the least the Euro still hangs back the baroclinic zone over the weekend for the Christmas eve snow potential to work out. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: That run gets , would be fun though. I suppose since run to run continuity has been crappy we can't completely rule it out either. 00z Euro deepened the wave along the cold front like the GEM is doing but not nearly to the extent of the GEM. A few 00z Euro ensemble members also had a similar progression. Very low probability outcome, but still within the spectrum of possibilities. I'm hoping at the least the Euro still hangs back the baroclinic zone over the weekend for the Christmas eve snow potential to work out. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk With the progressive pattern we have been in, it doesn't seem as likely for the storm to slow down and develop this deeply. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 So how close to Christmas is it before we can actually say "This is probably what is going to happen". LOL As of right now it looks like Western Kentucky is going to miss out on most of it I was really hoping for a White Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Since it appears likely at this point that someone should see a decent thump of snow for the 21st storm system, I decided it was worth starting a thread for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Looks like 12z Euro going with west Apps runner like 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GGEM is a bit chilly in the Upper Midwest on days 7-9. For entertainment only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z Euro snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I'm not buying into the spine runner scenario yet. Either someone in the west or central part of the subforum going to get hit or it ends up "going coastal" (with apologies to any letter carriers here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: 12z GGEM is a bit chilly in the Upper Midwest on days 7-9. For entertainment only... Have to wonder if it's maxing out the cold like that because of where it "thinks" there's going to be snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'm not buying into the spine runner scenario yet. Either someone in the west or central part of the subforum going to get hit or it ends up "going coastal" (with apologies to any letter carriers here). Only thing I'd feel remotely optimistic in saying is that some area south of I-80 should have snow for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 You gotta love all this model madness with each batch of guidance showing so many different scenarios. Makes it pretty fun I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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