Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[cyclone77]

6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

1073 ridge?  C'mon 

The NWS will have to institute nosebleed advisories for the first time.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The NWS will have to institute nosebleed advisories for the first time.

Peeps out west might shrink with that kind of subsidence.

[ConvectiveIA]

For snow medium range it's looking a better for the western part of this board than the 00 sunday runs, but still iffy.

[cyclone77]

I'm liking the trends for something on Christmas Eve.  The new Euro rolling in is advertising it as well.  Hope trends continue.  It would be a Christmas miracle special.

[ConvectiveIA]

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm liking the trends for something on Christmas Eve.  The new Euro rolling in is advertising it as well.  Hope trends continue.  It would be a Christmas miracle special.

And oh that does look very....purple. However at 7 days out, 8 out of 10 times that will go away by 4 days out, if trends I have seen since last winter verify. I am still placing my hopes on a solid 3 inches on the night of the 21st because that will NOT melt by christmas if we do get it!

[hlcater]

6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm liking the trends for something on Christmas Eve.  The new Euro rolling in is advertising it as well.  Hope trends continue.  It would be a Christmas miracle special.

Miracle would be an understatement given how this december has gone for us.

[Frog Town]

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm liking the trends for something on Christmas Eve.  The new Euro rolling in is advertising it as well.  Hope trends continue.  It would be a Christmas miracle special.

I concur!  It's something that everyone sort of felt would happen.  Too much energy left behind along with a powerful gradient in place.  Just where the boundary sets will be the key.  Hopefully through SE Ohio so the majority of the sub-forum will benefit

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm liking the trends for something on Christmas Eve.  The new Euro rolling in is advertising it as well.  Hope trends continue.  It would be a Christmas miracle special.

I definitely haven't given up on that timeframe.  The pattern just has the look for something... even if we can't manage good cyclogenesis.

[hlcater]

That 1060mb high scenario continues to gain traction on all models. Any storm that spins up is gonna have some crazy cold air to work with and probably a steep pressure gradient as well, even if it doesn't deepen too much.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Let's hope the late week cutter fizzles out.

Best case scenario. Need that to be dry south of the snow fall, and just strong enough to pull a decent CF down to an IND to BUF line. All in favor, raise your holiday snow globes..

[Frog Town]

15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Best case scenario. Need that to be dry south of the snow fall, and just strong enough to pull a decent CF down to an IND to BUF line. All in favor, raise your holiday snow globes..

 

[josh_4184]

18 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Best case scenario. Need that to be dry south of the snow fall, and just strong enough to pull a decent CF down to an IND to BUF line. All in favor, raise your holiday snow globes..

At this rate with the trending NW, the storm will be in Minn soon and we all get flooded. 

[IWXwx]

Although the 12z Euro pushed it back by 24 hrs from the 00z, to Northern WI/MN: Hi

 

[Hoosier]

12z Euro peaks the high pressure around 1063 mb.  Wild stuff on the globals but I'm not going to believe that yet.

[Hoosier]

DVN took note of that ridiculous surface high being progged in the extended.

Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF now suggest a overrruning or elevated
frontogenetical snow event to funnel up along this thermal ribbon
Sunday into Sunday night. Much will depend on what moisture this
zone will have to utilize for snow production especially with more
significant precip bands further to the southeast from the lower MS
RVR Valley and up along/south of the OH RVR Valley. But the models
are showing a long duration snow event possibly of 24 hours that
could utilize high LSR`s for several inches of snow to eventually
pile up in bands somewhere in or near the area. The GFS may be too
wet, but it advertises higher end advisory or even winter storm
warning snow amounts by Monday morning acrs the northwest 2/3s of
the DVN CWA, but again that is over a long duration. The drier ECMWF
is a touch further southeast with it`s snow axis and has half the
snow accum amounts that the GFS does. There is still plenty of time
for the models to change this scenario, but moderate CHC POPs for
snow will need to be added to the fcst for Sunday and Christmas Eve.
An intense cold regime being advertised by the latest run medium
range models for the upper mid CONUS, lurking just past Christmas
with unbelievable sfc high pressure strengths into the northern
Rockies and northwest high plains.  

[RCNYILWX]

Not so much this morning. 

Not quite ready to throw in the towel yet, but barring a significant change in the modeling away from the stronger/slower trend the last few cycles, we'll have a better chance of thunderstorms Friday than getting any snow from this system.

I was definitely guilty of being too optimistic too early with the northwest flow pattern, with some signs a few weeks back that the western ridge would set up farther west and put us in a better path for the clippers, which obviously it didn't.

Moving forward to close December and into January, it appears that more often we'll have opportunities with a west or southwest component to the mid and upper flow due to higher height tendencies in the south and southeast. While there is significant variability among individual ensemble members, a decent amount of them show the potential of the pattern.

Christmas weekend could have a chance or two before the massive Arctic high builds in. If we don't manage to cash in at all the rest of the month it'll really start to feel like we're snakebit snowfall wise.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not quite ready to throw in the towel yet, but barring a significant change in the modeling away from the stronger/slower trend the last few cycles, we'll have a better chance of thunderstorms Friday than getting any snow from this system.

I was definitely guilty of being too optimistic too early with the northwest flow pattern, with some signs a few weeks back that the western ridge would set up farther west and put us in a better path for the clippers, which obviously it didn't.

Moving forward to close December and into January, it appears that more often we'll have opportunities with a west or southwest component to the mid and upper flow due to higher height tendencies in the south and southeast. While there is significant variability among individual ensemble members, a decent amount of them show the potential of the pattern.

Christmas weekend could have a chance or two before the massive Arctic high builds in. If we don't manage to cash in at all the rest of the month it'll really start to feel like we're snakebit snowfall wise.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, it's unfortunate things didn't set up farther west to get more of the region in on the clipper action.

Sometimes you get lucky and get a good system in a pretty hostile pattern and sometimes not much comes from what looks like a favorable pattern, so there are certainly no guarantees about what happens storm wise in the final week or so of the month.  We're just playing the odds and hopefully we get a good system.  It will be frustrating if we get into January without anything, but I am a fan of the weeklies/monthlies going forward which are suggesting the southeast ridge being more of a factor than what has happened so far.  Yes, we may be playing with fire and having to contend with meltdowns in that type of regime, but personally I'd rather take my chances with that compared to perpetual northwest flow.

[ConvectiveIA]

I may be speaking irrelevantly because I dont have as intensive of an understanding as actual meteoroligists and some other posters here about the mechanics behind pattern over the next several days beyond simple placement of alternating pressures and temperatures, but I am holding onto strong hope that the last two model runs are outliers and will return to painting snow back over IA through upper portions of IL, IN, Nrn OH and southern MI

What the 18z GFS is doing looks familiar to last year's deal of forecasting central IA to be kept in a swath of empty rain while the NW gets moderate snow, and then after that, some kind of "deformation" dumps snow well south of us in MO, KS, and central IL after cold air arrives

Another is a repetitive history of trending further south early on in models before going north 3 days out and then actually realizing those later northern trends, I don't recall seeing the reverse of that and wonder why we bite on it before being bitterly disappointed. I again hope this is not going to fit my observation of that stereotypical model behavior

 

[TugHillMatt]

From checking out models, the path of this storm at the end of the week looks greatly dependent upon what that developing Low in the southeast does. The GFS and Euro show the Low moving more North and feeding into the Plains Low. This in turn causes a more powerful storm with moisture and warmth being drawn in from the southern Low.

Now, the Canadian and (what it looks like the most recent NAM is about to do), keeps the southern Low separate, and moving almost due east through the south. This allows the Plains low to continue it's track due east without being influenced by the southern Low. Thus, more wintry precip. through the Great Lakes.

If we want wintry weather in a larger area, we need that southeastern Low to stay away.

[hlcater]

7 minutes ago, blackrock said:

From checking out models, the path of this storm at the end of the week looks greatly dependent upon what that developing Low in the southeast does. The GFS and Euro show the Low moving more North and feeding into the Plains Low. This in turn causes a more powerful storm with moisture and warmth being drawn in from the southern Low.

Now, the Canadian and (what it looks like the most recent NAM is about to do), keeps the southern Low separate, and moving almost due east through the south. This allows the Plains low to continue it's track due east without being influenced by the southern Low. Thus, more wintry precip. through the Great Lakes.

If we want wintry weather in a larger area, we need that southeastern Low to stay away.

The Ukie has a southern track as well, so it might be having a similar evolution to what you mentioned.

[Hoosier]

00z GGEM is pretty wound up with the late week system.

[Hoosier]

That's a man strength LLJ too on that run... yikes.

[Hoosier]

Hawkeye approved

[TugHillMatt]

Ugh.

[Jackstraw]

GFS looking like its trying to flip back to last nights 00Z

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, blackrock said:

Ugh.

Good news is that it follows up with a bit of snow on the 25th.  Meanwhile the GFS suppresses the 25th into the abyss.

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good news is that it follows up with a bit of snow on the 25th.  Meanwhile the GFS suppresses the 25th into the abyss.

More like...gives New Orleans and Pensacola snow again. lol

[Snowstorms]

The classic pre-Christmas grinch storm. It ain't Christmas without it. 

This is slowly becoming another December to forget for many of us. With the reigning high pressure coming in across the Plains, it wouldn't surprise me if the "Christmas storm" is suppressed "into the abyss" (Hoosier). At this point in time, that is looking more likely. I remain somewhat optimistic beyond that, but I believe it'll be just a repeat of what we experienced these last two weeks, which was only great locally. 

[TugHillMatt]

Note how the GGEM is making that southern Low the Primary Low...hence, the huge mass of warmth and moisture moves up North. 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, blackrock said:

More like...gives New Orleans and Pensacola snow again. lol

Have to wonder if the GFS is crashing the cold too fast.  I'm not saying yes definitively, but that would play right into the model bias.  Let's see what the Euro does.