Hoosier Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z Euro sort of bungles the Christmas storm, but manages a strip of light snow. Plenty of time to sort that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Sure hope this is wrong lol. 10-day Euro snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 A slight lack of continuity on the 12z/18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A slight lack of continuity on the 12z/18z GFS. The models are struggling with this suspected cutoff. But I'll take the 18z over what I've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The 00z GFS forecast for Christmas is brutal. It's dropping a giant PV right down into the US with widespread sub-zero across the upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 00z GFS forecast for Christmas is brutal. It's dropping a giant PV right down into the US with widespread sub-zero across the upper midwest. Just beat me to it. A good deal of uncertainty yet, but with any luck hopefully we avoid a grinch storm then. Though depending where you are, maybe the late week storm is the grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 00z GFS forecast for Christmas is brutal. It's dropping a giant PV right down into the US with widespread sub-zero across the upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 00z GFS forecast for Christmas is brutal. It's dropping a giant PV right down into the US with widespread sub-zero across the upper midwest. Dry cold is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Given the persistent ensemble support for a very robust -EPO, almost have to wonder if a more brutal cold shot is a given at this point and it's just a question of when and exactly where it comes in and how bad it is. As for the potential "threat" next weekend through around Christmas, just way too many questions to get excited yet. On paper, energy potentially ejecting out of the SW with decent cold pressing in from the north and a SE ridge in place should favor something in the region, but I feel like locally whenever this "setup" is evident in the mid-range it fails at least 75% of the time (that's completely anecdotal so I may be well wrong). I feel like we either get too much energy ejecting out and a larger storm forms farther west (which could be good for other parts of the sub), the energy comes out weak and there's a weaker storm farther south, the energy comes out too slow and gets sheared out or so late that it isn't timed with the cold (not likely here I don't think), or the cold comes in stronger/weaker or at a different angle. But, it is the next period to watch. The players will be on the field so to speak, just a giant question mark regarding the exact evolution of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, OHweather said: Given the persistent ensemble support for a very robust -EPO, almost have to wonder if a more brutal cold shot is a given at this point and it's just a question of when and exactly where it comes in and how bad it is. As for the potential "threat" next weekend through around Christmas, just way too many questions to get excited yet. On paper, energy potentially ejecting out of the SW with decent cold pressing in from the north and a SE ridge in place should favor something in the region, but I feel like locally whenever this "setup" is evident in the mid-range it fails at least 75% of the time (that's completely anecdotal so I may be well wrong). I feel like we either get too much energy ejecting out and a larger storm forms farther west (which could be good for other parts of the sub), the energy comes out weak and there's a weaker storm farther south, the energy comes out too slow and gets sheared out or so late that it isn't timed with the cold (not likely here I don't think), or the cold comes in stronger/weaker or at a different angle. But, it is the next period to watch. The players will be on the field so to speak, just a giant question mark regarding the exact evolution of everything. Great points. I really think the warmer waters of the Great Lakes attract Low Pressure systems moving out of the SW. So, they often go up through the western Lakes. The positive thing I've noticed from the models is that there is only so far north these systems can go with the cold air fighting back from up north. I am thinking this late-week system is going to be a mix of different precip. types through a big chunk of this forum with the battle between cold air and warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: GGEM and UKMET with **** shows tonight. I think all of the models are whacked beyond 5 days right now. The only thing that's consistent is its gonna get cold. My 5 year old grand daughter told me that at dinner tonight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 56 minutes ago, OHweather said: Given the persistent ensemble support for a very robust -EPO, almost have to wonder if a more brutal cold shot is a given at this point and it's just a question of when and exactly where it comes in and how bad it is. As for the potential "threat" next weekend through around Christmas, just way too many questions to get excited yet. On paper, energy potentially ejecting out of the SW with decent cold pressing in from the north and a SE ridge in place should favor something in the region, but I feel like locally whenever this "setup" is evident in the mid-range it fails at least 75% of the time (that's completely anecdotal so I may be well wrong). I feel like we either get too much energy ejecting out and a larger storm forms farther west (which could be good for other parts of the sub), the energy comes out weak and there's a weaker storm farther south, the energy comes out too slow and gets sheared out or so late that it isn't timed with the cold (not likely here I don't think), or the cold comes in stronger/weaker or at a different angle. But, it is the next period to watch. The players will be on the field so to speak, just a giant question mark regarding the exact evolution of everything. BUF NWS agrees: Quote Looking further down the road...medium to long range guidance is looking very interesting for the period from Christmas to New Years. For a few model runs now...this longer range guidance has been hinting at a return to notably colder weather for the Great Lakes region. A closed low over Siberia is forecast to break down in the coming days with a chunk of its energy being ejected out across the Kamchatka Peninsula and northern reaches of the Pacific ocean. Eventually...this very robust bundle of mid level energy is forecast to help carve out a full latitude trough over the heart of North America. While highly anomalous ridging off the West coast would extend from 20N all the way to the Pole...a large portion 0f the polar vortex would settle south to northern Ontario. This newly phased pattern would not only include a cross polar flow...but more importantly would allow H85 temps of <-30c within the vortex to make their way across the northern plains. While this long range forecast would place the coldest air of this outbreak over the plains states...the air would eventually make its way to the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 00z Euro is also fairly cold toward the end of the run, with some below zero readings in parts of IA/IL/WI that have no snowcover on the run (temps really crash farther north in areas with snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 And I see the Canadian and Euro have both suddenly dropped all notion of IA snow that looked decent for several runs prior, I would hope that this is just a "hiccup" but it looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Don't want to root for futility, but if the Euro is correct and we make it to Dec 26th with no measurable snow at MLI I'll probably be rooting for the record latest measurable snowfall. Might as well try to capitalize something out of it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The never ending gift gif right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 24 minutes ago, Stebo said: The never ending gift gif right there! That stuff is viral material. I hope the poor guy on the receiving end of that gift gif received his cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The clipper pattern was great while it lasted... One thing I took from the last week or so was not look too close to the details more than 36 hrs out. Just the pattern. Tuesdays clipper appeared out of nowhere, this theme will continue for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, UMB WX said: Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On December 16, 2017 at 6:14 AM, Baum said: LOT and surrounding offices much more optimistic on a potential snow event as we transition back to cold later this week. Quite a turn based on some the more downtrodden dialogue around here. Great write up by RC today. Better yet, turn jives with some of his pattern analysis posted from a few weeks back as we entered the NW flow regime. Be nice to see a series of SW lows ride along the periphery of an arctic air mass with plenty of warmth and moisture to feed it. It's been awhile. Not so much this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Baum said: Not so much this morning. Nothing like winter wx boredom going into Christmas, eh? 2013 since we had true excitement on the horizon. Sure, '15 had the sleet storm on the 28th and '14 had the Gulf bomb fail from which mby netted 0.5" Christmas Eve, but it already had melted by morning - yippee! Amazing what a perennial dead-spot this period has become around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Nothing like winter wx boredom going into Christmas, eh? 2013 since we had true excitement on the horizon. Sure, '15 had the sleet storm on the 28th and '14 had the Gulf bomb fail from which mby netted 0.5" Christmas Eve, but it already had melted by morning - yippee! Amazing what a perennial dead-spot this period has become around these parts I'm big believer in "the rubber band theory." The weather only pulls so far in one direction before it snaps back far to the reverse. We're getting to that point.....How's that for in depth medium/ long range analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The big deciding factor for the end of the week system will be how far the cold air can sink in from the northeast. It wouldn't take much for many of us to get a good winter event from it. Hoping for trends to start showing it farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z GFS is hanging back a lot of energy so far. Let's see if we get a respectable Christmas storm after the late week cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GFS is hanging back a lot of energy so far. Let's see if we get a respectable Christmas storm after the late week cutter. Thoughts on the 12Z GFS vs GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, blackrock said: Thoughts on the 12Z GFS vs GGEM? Well, the GGEM is more favorable in more ways than one. First because of how it handles the late week storm, and then the situation after that. For the time around Christmas, the GFS was holding back energy in the west, but it ended up getting sheared out by the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 7 hours ago, DAFF said: The clipper pattern was great while it lasted... One thing I took from the last week or so was not look too close to the details more than 36 hrs out. Just the pattern. Tuesdays clipper appeared out of nowhere, this theme will continue for the winter. Based on the EC's site, Windsor has recorded 20.6" of snow this month already! Can you confirm that? Sounds preposterous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1073 ridge? C'mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GFS is hanging back a lot of energy so far. Let's see if we get a respectable Christmas storm after the late week cutter. Let's hope the late week cutter fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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