Jonger Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 My Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday in the UP is looking a lot better now than it was 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 5:18 PM, blackrock said: I want both! lol...very few places in the U.S. have such a climate though. Expand Me too lol. 2013-14 was historic for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 7:58 AM, Jonger said: Is that the second wave? Expand Yes Models have been showing some relative consistency with it lately, so hopefully something happens somewhere and it isn't one of those mirages. A surface low that makes it to Alabama usually isn't good for areas where I am and farther west, unless the wave quickly takes on a negative tilt. Therefore, would currently favor areas to my east having a better shot at something significant, but still tantalizing enough to keep me watching lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 5:24 PM, Jonger said: I'm happy to see that the UP does a lot better over the entire run for preserving and adding to snow depths. Expand I have a good foot and a half of snow depth here with several more inches coming tonight. I would be shocked if I lost it all after this week...but lake effect goes fast...but it is a couple feet of dense lake effect compacted. It was HEAVY when I shoveled my roof off last week. So, we shall see.... GFS does look cooler in the long range and doesn't take me above 40 at all. At the very end, though, it shows 3 INCHES of rain with temps in the mid 30s...lol. Yes, I know that will change... hopefully? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 1:46 PM, IWXwx said: Buffaloweather wants to lock in the GFS for a synoptic dump. Actually, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are in amazing agreement with the low placement for six days out. Expand I'm highly skeptical of that low placement. 20 years living on the east coast, I very seldom recall seeing a low rising along the ridge of the Apps actually verifying. Gives me hope that the secondary will shift west with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 5:59 PM, mimillman said: I'm highly skeptical of that low placement. 20 years living on the east coast, I very seldom recall seeing a low rising along the ridge of the Apps actually verifying. Gives me hope that the secondary will shift west with time. Expand That was a pretty common track during the 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 5:59 PM, mimillman said: I'm highly skeptical of that low placement. 20 years living on the east coast, I very seldom recall seeing a low rising along the ridge of the Apps actually verifying. Gives me hope that the secondary will shift west with time. Expand Happened in March of ‘08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 It will end up over Toledo.Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:03 PM, pondo1000 said: Happened in March of ‘08. Expand Very seldom...march of '08 was 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:10 PM, mimillman said: Very seldom...march of '08 was 10 years ago. Expand Correct, very seldom true, but very possible as well. Maybe it’s a 1 every 10 years thing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:03 PM, Guest said: It will end up over Toledo. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Expand That's probably money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:13 PM, IWXwx said: That's probably money. Expand I'm holding you guys to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:12 PM, pondo1000 said: Correct, very seldom true, but very possible as well. Maybe it’s a 1 every 10 years thing. Lol Expand Wouldn't be the first time this winter found another bizarre and extremely rare way to **** over Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:14 PM, mimillman said: Wouldn't be the first time this winter found another bizarre and extremely rare way to **** over Chicagoland. Expand I hear ya, but we haven’t been cashing in as of late either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 How bout some middle ground.....Columbus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:13 PM, Hoosier said: I'm holding you guys to it. Expand lol An ORD special on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:15 PM, IWXwx said: lol An ORD special on the way Expand I was actually too warm for all snow on the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:03 PM, Guest said: It will end up over Toledo. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Expand I could see that. Then again trends west and stronger have been a rarity in the modelling. Could also see this morph into multi-piece waves riding a front further east. On top of all that we have the first low cutting up into the mw on Thursday. I'm sure how that plays out will have a big effect too. IOW, maybe we'll know by the end of the week the what and ifs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z Euro @120 has a low in east MS and looks like its starting to go neg tilt. Next frame should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Passes almost right over TOL lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 WOW @12Z Euro. Too warm for my liking but that is one nice looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 And Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 1052 vs 985... nice pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:26 PM, Hoosier said: Here it comes Expand Reel er' in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Lol, it would figure that the first west and stronger trend in a storm we've seen in two seasons finally happens on a storm originally modelled on a perfect track to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:32 PM, mimillman said: Reel er' in Expand Still a little nervous about letting it get to the lat/lon of Alabama. That could work for us but there's no margin for error with the handling of the trough at that point... gotta quickly go negative tilt or else it's easy for it to escape east of where we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 That Euro run is about as far West as you will see this, the 500 pattern with neutral tilt at the river would suggest east, this basically went north northeast from MS which is a rare storm trajectory, I would have expected something more northeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:42 PM, Hoosier said: Still a little nervous about letting it get to the lat/lon of Alabama. That could work for us but there's no margin for error with the handling of the trough at that point... gotta quickly go negative tilt or else it's easy for it to escape east of where we'd like. Expand Yep see above for similar commentary. Euro still is a bit notorious for wrapping up systems too strongly in this forecast range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:41 PM, buckeye said: Lol, it would figure that the first west and stronger trend in a storm we've seen in two seasons finally happens on a storm originally modelled on a perfect track to our east. Expand That was actually east of the 0z Euro run. 0z tracked through the NW corner of OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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