Hoosier Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 12z GEM is a bit more interesting with the storm next weekend. Better phasing gets more people involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 5:06 PM, Jonger said: I liked the 06z GFS better than the 12Z. Expand That run signaled another round of tundra for the subforum. The 12th - 17th was an icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 5:43 PM, GreenBo said: That run signaled another round of tundra for the subforum. The 12th - 17th was an icebox. Expand I'd prefer not having to start over rebuilding snowpack in the northwoods starting Feb 1st. That's kind of depressing. Granted, I don't think that's going to happen.... but I have seen it happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 5:34 PM, IWXwx said: I can envision some real dense fog issues throughout IN along about Wed/Thur with 40's and 50's over the tundra Expand I hope so, I love working fog nights at the airport. 8 hours of jammed packed with several obs per hour. Between snowstorms and severe weather, fog ranks right behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 The biggest take away from these op runs that I do see and like, is that we are going to get into a pattern of deep long wave troughs ejecting out of the southwest, compared to energetic but tiny shortwaves out of the northwest. These deeper troughs are your money maker for big time systems compared to the clippers where you have to get real lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:16 PM, Stebo said: The biggest take away from these op runs that I do see and like, is that we are going to get into a pattern of deep long wave troughs ejecting out of the southwest, compared to energetic but tiny shortwaves out of the northwest. These deeper troughs are your money maker for big time systems compared to the clippers where you have to get real lucky. Expand These are one reason why I think we aren't going to see one big warmup out this way. I think there's gonna be several associated with the warm sector of each of these systems, followed by a brief shot of cooler air, then warms up as the next system approaches. This definitely isn't a snow longevity pattern but I think it's one that has potential for some larger systems, especially compared to what we have seen so far. Some of the longer range models support this idea and to me, would make more sense with all the troughs coming ashore in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:28 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: These are one reason why I think we aren't going to see one big warmup out this way. I think there's gonna be several associated with the warm sector of each of these systems, followed by a brief shot of cooler air, then warms up as the next system approaches. This definitely isn't a snow longevity pattern but I think it's one that has potential for some larger systems, especially compared to what we have seen so far. Some of the longer range models support this idea and to me, would make more sense with all the troughs coming ashore in the west. Expand Agreed, the location of where the train tracks will set up isn't set in stone though this is a pattern that would be better north and west in the forum. If you are in Ohio, probably best to fold up shop for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 12z Euro is a great track, a little to much WAA leading to a messy mix but definitely keeping consistent. Vort maps really tell the evolution of this storm and how it could evolve under the right pieces and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:40 PM, Snowstorms said: 12z Euro is a great track, a little to much WAA leading to a messy mix but definitely keeping consistent. Vort maps really tell the evolution of this storm and how it could evolve under the right pieces and timing. Expand Are you referring to the end of the week storm? If so, is it looking colder than the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:40 PM, Snowstorms said: 12z Euro is a great track, a little to much WAA leading to a messy mix but definitely keeping consistent. Vort maps really tell the evolution of this storm and how it could evolve under the right pieces and timing. Expand That's what I thought too. The 12z euro had what normally is a killer snowstorm track for CMH and western OH.... low from e.KY through w.WV to upstate NY...and yet the snow map looks like one you would see with a storm cutting over top of us with a rich getting richer band of snow through nw.IN into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Where do you guys see a Euro precip map? Something better than a low res 24 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:56 PM, blackrock said: Are you referring to the end of the week storm? If so, is it looking colder than the GFS? Expand Yeah the weekend storm. It's warmer than the GFS. However, if there was more colder air on the Euro, it would be an ideal track for most of us. See below; Judging by the vort maps, it seems to phase a bit with the oncoming northern stream. Alot of moving parts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 7:05 PM, Jonger said: Where do you guys see a Euro precip map? Something better than a low res 24 hr period Expand What a bummer that we can't see Op Euro free maps anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Oh, that's the one after the first end of week storm.... Canadian doesn't look too much different...definitely slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 7:28 PM, blackrock said: Oh, that's the one after the first end of week storm.... Canadian doesn't look too much different...definitely slower Expand These "secondary waves" usually never work out and it becomes one primary storm most of the time. We'll see how this plays out. A bit slower and we can perhaps getting better phasing with the northern stream. Not sold out on anything, yet! We'll get a better picture by Tuesday, at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 7:27 PM, blackrock said: What a bummer that we can't see Op Euro free maps anymore... Expand Who funds the euro models? Could you imagine if the NWS charged us to view their maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 7:05 PM, Jonger said: Where do you guys see a Euro precip map? Something better than a low res 24 hr period Expand about the best free euro maps you're gonna get are at ryan maue's site https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:37 PM, Stebo said: Agreed, the location of where the train tracks will set up isn't set in stone though this is a pattern that would be better north and west in the forum. If you are in Ohio, probably best to fold up shop for a while. Expand You said that last month and the northeast got 2 storms while Great Lakes got nothing. You never really know until a few days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 7:53 PM, BuffaloWeather said: You said that last month and the northeast got 2 storms while Great Lakes got nothing. You never really know until a few days before. Expand True, but we ended up with a negative EPO and positive PNA off the charts. We see changes in that already going forward especially with the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 6:37 PM, Stebo said: Agreed, the location of where the train tracks will set up isn't set in stone though this is a pattern that would be better north and west in the forum. If you are in Ohio, probably best to fold up shop for a while. Expand The shops in Ohio have been closed for two years dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I think the only thing that matters right now is that there is something showing up on the models. When, what & where & details to be worked out much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 9:50 PM, pondo1000 said: I think the only thing that matters right now is that there is something showing up on the models. When, what & where & details to be worked out much later. Expand Agree. Lots of model support for a low developing out of the gulf on a new shot of arctic air coming in next weekend. Most guidance favors a track somewhere between Ohio and the coastal plain. That's about all you can hang your hat on right now other than a brief warm up before that and a more sustained warm up after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro still has the end of week storm, but is farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 6:43 AM, Hoosier said: Euro still has the end of week storm, but is farther west. Expand Is that the second wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Buffaloweather wants to lock in the GFS for a synoptic dump. Actually, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are in amazing agreement with the low placement for six days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I keep hoping the models will start shifting the Thursday system farther south (like they have for others) so I can preserve more of my snowpack, but not much positivity for that. The GFS has slightly trended southward. Sigh...I find thaws so depressing... Then after the thaw/storm, it's back to cold and dry...I really feel for those of you under 5 inches on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 4:30 PM, blackrock said: I keep hoping the models will start shifting the Thursday system farther south (like they have for others) so I can preserve more of my snowpack, but not much positivity for that. The GFS has slightly trended southward. Sigh...I find thaws so depressing... Then after the thaw/storm, it's back to cold and dry...I really feel for those of you under 5 inches on the season. Expand Meh, it's gonna be a roller coaster, because after cold and dry, then it's back to torch (probably until Feb.) Que sera sera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 4:30 PM, blackrock said: I keep hoping the models will start shifting the Thursday system farther south (like they have for others) so I can preserve more of my snowpack, but not much positivity for that. The GFS has slightly trended southward. Sigh...I find thaws so depressing... Then after the thaw/storm, it's back to cold and dry...I really feel for those of you under 5 inches on the season. Expand I just posted in the other thread but it fits here. It' sbeen a cold white winter so far here and I have no complaints. But i hate thaws. It's depressing to see so much snow melt. But honestly for those that want action usually the risky patterns are what pays off. For those who just like deep winter, the pattern we have had for most of the last month is what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 5:17 PM, michsnowfreak said: I just posted in the other thread but it fits here. It' sbeen a cold white winter so far here and I have no complaints. But i hate thaws. It's depressing to see so much snow melt. But honestly for those that want action usually the risky patterns are what pays off. For those who just like deep winter, the pattern we have had for most of the last month is what you want. Expand I want both! lol...very few places in the U.S. have such a climate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I'm happy to see that the UP does a lot better over the entire run for preserving and adding to snow depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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