mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 Rain over performing here! A nice change of pace! Just 2 days ago, no rain forecasted! Currently moderate rain. Been raining off and on since around 7 AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Forecast: Rain, mainly after 7pm Disco: expanding into the highway 1 corridor toward midnight. (I'm well East of Hwy 1) I guess any rain after 7pm makes the forecast valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Rain over performing here! A nice change of pace! Just 2 days ago, no rain forecasted! Currently moderate rain. Been raining off and on since around 7 AM! rec'd nearly a quarter of an inch of rain - high temp of only 45.9 - great fall day, fireplace on all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 light rain 44/44 100% calm wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Started this morning at 39 and rose up to 61 under increasingly cloudy skies. Currently 53/51 and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Currently 43.2.. max was 45.1 today. As I predicted, below the forecast of 49. Currently raining and loving it. Had a fire going most of the day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 0.68” overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 Pea soup fog/49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 .14" was we could wring out. Currently 54/53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Topping off at 50 looks like. Once again, the clouds held on all day and came in cooler than forecast. That's been the trend recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 64 beautiful degrees today Low to mid 60's with sunny skies is the forecast for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 .41" yesterday, not too shabby. Today was a perfect fall day and a thick cloud deck above and cool temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 After a low of 40 we are currently at 60/50. Very nice out actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 37/56 partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 A high of 51.3.. once again lower than forecast of 54. Tomorrow may be the warmest day we see in a while with a forecast high of 65. I've got a lot of leaves to blow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I'm a little confused. RDU averaged normal today with the below values: TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY NORMAL TODAYS DIF MAXIMUM 67 64 3 MINIMUM 36 41 -5 AVERAGE 52 52 0 If you average 67 & 36 you get 51.5 If you average 64 & 41 you get 52.5 So they round the current temps up but round the average temps down. That's a scam, it should be 1 degree below normal today. Edit: after thinking about it, maybe the whole number temps they display are not the actual number of record; meaning maybe the average high of 64 is actually 63.6. ...or something like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I'm a little confused. RDU averaged normal today with the below values: TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY NORMAL TODAYS DIF MAXIMUM 67 64 3 MINIMUM 36 41 -5 AVERAGE 52 52 0 If you average 67 & 36 you get 51.5 If you average 64 & 41 you get 52.5 So they round the current temps up but round the average temps down. That's a scam, it should be 1 degree below normal today. Edit: after thinking about it, maybe the whole number temps they display are not the actual number of record; meaning maybe the average high of 64 is actually 63.6. ...or something like that.. It's a weighted average. You can't just average the high and the low. You have to account for how long the temperature remained at each measurement, including all the values between the high and the low.Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 hours ago, calculus1 said: It's a weighted average. You can't just average the high and the low. You have to account for how long the temperature remained at each measurement, including all the values between the high and the low. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk So basically they need a database to manage all the daily readings and scripting/programming to determine the weighted high and low. And what they report out to the public is generalized as whole numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 17 hours ago, FallsLake said: So basically they need a database to manage all the daily readings and scripting/programming to determine the weighted high and low. And what they report out to the public is generalized as whole numbers. The high and low for the day are not weighted: They are simply reported as the actual highest and lowest temperature recorded on the calendar day. The average temperature for the day is what is weighted. Wikipedia has a good article on weighted averages, and their basic example is quite easy to follow, I think. Similar to Wikipedia's example of test scores, in weather, you can't just average the high and the low to get the average temperature for the day. Here's why: Suppose on any given day, the high were 60F and the low were 50F. It would appear as if the average temperature should be 55F, right? But, suppose that the low of 50F was recorded at midnight, and then the temperature quickly rose to 60F by 1:00 AM, before remaining a constant 60F for the rest of the calendar day. Thus, for the vast majority of the day (23/24 of the day, to be exact), the temperature was 60F. The average temperature for that calendar day would actually be much closer to 60F than it would be to 55F. Assuming we only took measurements on the hour -- in reality, you could take them a lot more frequently -- then your average would be calculated in this way: (50 + 60 + 60 + ... + 60 + 60)/24 = 59.58F (There were 23 measurements of 60F in the above calculation.) This is an extreme example, but I hope it helps illustrate the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 4 hours ago, calculus1 said: The high and low for the day are not weighted: They are simply reported as the actual highest and lowest temperature recorded on the calendar day. The average temperature for the day is what is weighted. Wikipedia has a good article on weighted averages, and their basic example is quite easy to follow, I think. Similar to Wikipedia's example of test scores, in weather, you can't just average the high and the low to get the average temperature for the day. Here's why: Suppose on any given day, the high were 60F and the low were 50F. It would appear as if the average temperature should be 55F, right? But, suppose that the low of 50F was recorded at midnight, and then the temperature quickly rose to 60F by 1:00 AM, before remaining a constant 60F for the rest of the calendar day. Thus, for the vast majority of the day (23/24 of the day, to be exact), the temperature was 60F. The average temperature for that calendar day would actually be much closer to 60F than it would be to 55F. Assuming we only took measurements on the hour -- in reality, you could take them a lot more frequently -- then your average would be calculated in this way: (50 + 60 + 60 + ... + 60 + 60)/24 = 59.58F (There were 23 measurements of 60F in the above calculation.) This is an extreme example, but I hope it helps illustrate the situation. Thanks for the info. I understand and it makes since; they are truly getting the average high for the day. But I'm on the fence of saying just take the high and the low and going with those numbers. There's a lot of complicating factors in weighting values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Dropped down to 30 last night - forecast called for 35. If only that would happen during one of those "Chance of rain or snow..." events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, Solak said: Dropped down to 30 last night - forecast called for 35. If only that would happen during one of those "Chance of rain or snow..." events It will. About 50 miles north, south, east, and west of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 14 hours ago, FallsLake said: Thanks for the info. I understand and it makes since; they are truly getting the average high for the day. But I'm on the fence of saying just take the high and the low and going with those numbers. There's a lot of complicating factors in weighting values. 2 Here are always complicating factors and too many more things than we realize. Any time you see the word average you need to investigate how that average is figured for it to have much meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Hit 35 this morning and now up to 69/51. Sunny and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Currently 26.6/25 with a decent NW wind and still snowing. Just under an inch so far, mainly on elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 picked up a mere .03" this morning, man we need some rain. Currently 49/33. Temp has been slowly dropping since the sun went down from a high of 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Picked up 0.20 inch of rainfall early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 Should be headed for coldest night of the year, already 36 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 31º at 11:30 pm. It's gonna be a chilly night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 28.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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