BlunderStorm Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I tend to ignore details past hour 200 especially after 240. The 18z GFS operational was encouraging but the GEFS was a flop with the SE ridge well established. The system at day 9-10 caught my eye though and should it continue to show in some form we may be on the lookout for something by Sunday somewhere between the 21st and Christmas. Wasn't quite sure where to pin this post btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Quote On another note, I thought I had heard a year or two ago that it had been a decade or more since Nashville recorded more than an inch of snow, is that true? Like this That streak was broken a few yrs back but prior too that it was true. It was a long snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 hours ago, bearman said: That streak was broken a few yrs back but prior too that it was true. It was a long snow drought. Yes! It was but we broke the SnowDome a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Some of the clown maps are already being posted on social media. They hype train has begun Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Yeah I told a friend in Kansas I'd let him get a away with it for Christmas. Plus they got a better shot out there. Otherwise I 'shame' Day 10 charts, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 My response to the Dec. 15, Friday 12Z GFS. I get a laugh out of these two unrelated yet correlated charts. Everything points to blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 THE 12z euro was very generous to me on this run. It puts me in 8-11 inches in my back yard, haha. Gotta love long range forecasts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Maps on Weather.us has some serious flaws,nothing supports these amounts.The ratios at best is 10:1 at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Cut the amounts out on my post,here's the link https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/tennessee/snow-depth-in/20171225-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Probably shouldn't have even dictated what might be right or wrong with anything at this point.Least we have a storm to follow right now which is more than what we've seen in a couple years.Memphis off the last Euro is close to being a nice snow storm and then again could be a nice ice storm..lol.I'm pulling for everyone to have a White Christmas in the Valley,how nice would that be?Here's some early sounding text for Memphis off the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Maps on Weather.us has some serious flaws,nothing supports these amounts.The ratios at best is 10:1 at this time Basically all these count ice/sleet as all snow. I'm not sure if I've found one that is completely accurate verbatim. I looked at the QPF as snow and it seemed more accurate as far as what snow would actually be produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Basically all these count ice/sleet as all snow. I'm not sure if I've found one that is completely accurate verbatim. I looked at the QPF as snow and it seemed more accurate as far as what snow would actually be produced. Yeah,i looked at text for BNA,its about half and half.The thing about the western half of the Valley is they are being shown to have the colder air pouring in than the rest of us.The ridge on the Euro in the east seems to be a big player,right now anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, John1122 said: Basically all these count ice/sleet as all snow. I'm not sure if I've found one that is completely accurate verbatim. I looked at the QPF as snow and it seemed more accurate as far as what snow would actually be produced. To back up what you said,its similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 5 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Probably shouldn't have even dictated what might be right or wrong with anything at this point.Least we have a storm to follow right now which is more than what we've seen in a couple years.Memphis off the last Euro is close to being a nice snow storm and then again could be a nice ice storm..lol.I'm pulling for everyone to have a White Christmas in the Valley,how nice would that be?Here's some early sounding text for Memphis off the Euro. Yeah man, it would be something special if we could get everyone in the forum in on some winter weather right around Christmas. Like you I'm just glad we have something to track and talk about! It seems like Memphis is usually always on the cutoff line for snow/ice, I'm anxious to see how this all pans out, but I really hope we can score something good out of this system!!! Glad to see you posting Jax!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The latest Euro has dropped, with what I would call a Christmas miracle. First and foremost, of course it shows a winter storm for Christmas. Secondly this winter storm on Christmas Eve has a clean cut transition between rain and snow with out a battleground of ice or sleet. Thirdly the storm is a transition from rain to snow instead of vice versa. Fourthly, while narrowly missing Memphis and Nashville areas, just south of the cities and in climo cursed northern Mississippi and Alabama a few nice inches of accumulating snow falls. Even areas of extreme southeast Arkansas and northern Louisiana get in on the fun. Following that it gradually flows northeast into the Great valley and Cumberland plateau up the Appalachians leaving moderate accumulations in it's wake. Later passing on to the Mid-Atlantic and re-consolidating in the southeast ending in Norfolk on the coast Christmas Day. If only something similar to this would occur... I can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: Yeah man, it would be something special if we could get everyone in the forum in on some winter weather right around Christmas. Like you I'm just glad we have something to track and talk about! It seems like Memphis is usually always on the cutoff line for snow/ice, I'm anxious to see how this all pans out, but I really hope we can score something good out of this system!!! Glad to see you posting Jax!!! Thanks,nothing is written in stone yet.I havent been feeling well lately as i talked with Carver recently but i feel much better the last couple days.Last run on the Euro was annoying,some snow but not what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Heh, the way I romanticize the run vs jax's blunt annoyance with it is hilarious! Wishing you well with plenty of snow jax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 So, who screwed the format up on mobile? Anyone connecting through computers....is it the same? I just want it put back the way it was, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: So, who screwed the format up on mobile? Anyone connecting through computers....is it the same? I just want it put back the way it was, lol Just when I was getting used to the "like" button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 28 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: So, who screwed the format up on mobile? Anyone connecting through computers....is it the same? I just want it put back the way it was, lol Yeah, it's messed up on the computer as well. Something has to be done half of the quote button is off and multiple account images are skewed awkwardly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I really think the 18z GFS the other night w 3' in Atlanta broke the forum. It has not been the same since that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 6 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: Heh, the way I romanticize the run vs jax's blunt annoyance with it is hilarious! Wishing you well with plenty of snow jax! Just want to see the ground white for once.Typical model mayhem it seems,it keeps us interested and in the long haul it will be a special for you guys and we'll be seeing a cold rain shower here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 For the time being I would think you are in a better position for a winter storm ( or ice storm) but I'm not sure. To say that would go against the common wisdom that the NE of the forum does better. Being further west you are much more likely to be in freezing conditions given what has been shown. Things can change though I suppose. (EDIT) Woah! The style format just changed! It looks great! I do have mixed feeling about the reactions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The new update is slow when you post something,i have to refresh my page after i post something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 We back up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I see that new posts are being made and get notifications that there are new replies in threads but I can't actually see any of the new posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 This thread seems to sort of be working but the winter disco thread is not. It just keeps going to the same post from over an hour and says there's been 16 replies since but shows none of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: This thread seems to sort of be working but the winter disco thread is not. It just keeps going to the same post from over an hour and says there's been 16 replies since but shows none of them. I'm having the same issue. I tried to write a complaint in the help thread but it wouldn't let me send it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 When the entire circulation pattern of NA is changed every run, the model cannot be trusted. - Quote from Carver's in the speculation forum. I'm just really venting because I see a local FB page advertise a white Christmas after last nights GFS and even spells out which counties are going to have a white Christmas. Now of course, he always puts the "this might change" disclaimer, but geez dude. It's to the point where people "trust this page" more than guys who have spent years studying atmospheric sciences. It undermines the validity of the true experts. I wish he'd read these boards - listen to a few guys here, maybe take Carver's quote into consideration. Ok, end of rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 hours ago, EastKnox said: When the entire circulation pattern of NA is changed every run, the model cannot be trusted. - Quote from Carver's in the speculation forum. I'm just really venting because I see a local FB page advertise a white Christmas after last nights GFS and even spells out which counties are going to have a white Christmas. Now of course, he always puts the "this might change" disclaimer, but geez dude. It's to the point where people "trust this page" more than guys who have spent years studying atmospheric sciences. It undermines the validity of the true experts. I wish he'd read these boards - listen to a few guys here, maybe take Carver's quote into consideration. Ok, end of rant. LOL. If this cold comes...w a snowstorm included...we are firing up the internet radio. LOL. Snow for everybody!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.