Winter Banter 2017/18

[Carvers Gap]

I am absolutely fired up to see UT in the tournament, but at 18-5 I want to see them finish strong w the toughest part of the schedule being now.  They have some great resume wins...but I just look forward to seeing them in a bracket.  They play good defense, and that will take you places.   They have played a good schedule.  But this team has zero tourney experience.  So, not sure what to expect.  I just hope Kansas or Wichita St or ETSU stay clear of each other in the brackets.  After our luck w the cold spell and no snow in the eastern Valley, they all will be in the same venue for the first games w Villanova as the one seed.   

[Windspeed]

I am absolutely fired up to see UT in the tournament, but at 18-5 I want to see them finish strong w the toughest part of the schedule being now.  They have some great resume wins...but I just look forward to seeing them in a bracket.  They play good defense, and that will take you places.   They have played a good schedule.  But this team has zero tourney experience.  So, not sure what to expect.  I just hope Kansas or Wichita St or ETSU stay clear of each other in the brackets.  After our luck w the cold spell and no snow in the eastern Valley, they all will be in the same venue for the first games w Villanova as the one seed.   

 

I can see them realistically going 5-2 down the final stretch. That would put them at 23-7 heading into the SEC Tourney and a 3 or 4 seed. If they were to go undefeated or 6-1, they could steal the regular season conference title from Auburn and even take a 1 or 2 seed in the Big Dance. They would also likely be knocking on a top 5 ranking by then. Though they are definitely good, I am not expecting that. Regardless, this season has been fun.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

Vols are YOUNG. James Daniel is the only SR. Future is bright!  

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

Vols are YOUNG. James Daniel is the only SR. Future is bright!  

That is just crazy right there.  Going to need basketball to ride-out the football storm of mediocrity.

[Windspeed]

That is just crazy right there.  Going to need basketball to ride-out the football storm of mediocrity.

Jeremy Pruitt is the real deal. The coaching staff he has put together is the best the Vols have had in over a decade. I think they'll weather that storm another year, perhaps two. I expect they will push Georgia for the SEC East by his third year. Perhaps even a conference championship by year four. At worst, not mediocre, and certainly nothing like 2017, the most awful Tennessee squad in my lifetime.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

Jeremy Pruitt is the real deal. The coaching staff he has put together is the best the Vols have had in over a decade. I think they'll weather that storm another year, perhaps two. I expect they will push Georgia for the SEC East by his third year. Perhaps even a conference championship by year four. At worst, not mediocre, and certainly nothing like 2017, the most awful Tennessee squad in my lifetime.

 

I definitely like Pruitt, but the Dawgs just signed arguably the best recruiting class in the modern era.   UT will need at least four recruiting classes in the top 7-8 to even get close to what UGA is going. Probably need three classes to be competitive.   0-8 in the SEC requires more than bad luck, but a total collapse of the program culture.  We have become the Browns.  I think Fulmer and Pruitt get it done, but this is a very long road back IMO, especially when we lose some more experience next year and at key positions.  Tennessee’s worst recruiting class since maybe 08 and second worst that I can remember combined with UGA’s success in recruiting is bad news.  Oddly, I think next year we will have a puncher’s chance since the Dawgs lose so much experience and we do have some older guys who will be good...after next year, the recruiting gap hits.  After that, I think UGA is untouchable for 3-4 years minimum.  I am the biggest homer ever and truly believe we now have the right guys in place, but we are in a really, really bad spot with talent and in concert with the recruiting cycle....and this class won’t help close that gap.  IMO have to get in three elite classes beginning in 2019.  So, fall of 2021 I think we are competitive again consistently.  What I really want to see is how Pruitt develops players and coaches on Saturday.   I think those will be two big areas where he makes us better and maybe shave a year off the nearly total rebuild needed after next season.  I actually think we will be worse in years 2-3 in terms of talent.  Sorry, that was no ray of sunshine.  LOL.   Right now, the most pressing concern is QB IMO.  FWIW, UGA looks like UT did during the late 90s in recruiting and on the field.

[nrgjeff]

Tennessee football has to improve with the departure of that awful AD. Relationships matter and the toxic guy is gone! 

Short-term this weekend looks like a washout. It'll be good for local NBC Olympics ratings. Also some good college basketball gems.

Last night I was not sure who to root for. Duke is Duke but UNC has fake classes. I still like Roy, but UNC is both corrupt and crony.

[Carvers Gap]

Going to watch cold and snow in South Korea on TV.  Go USA!  I am a big fan of Fulmer.  Don't even get me going w/ Currie...LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

My bar for UT football is, after this year, put up a fight against St Guinefort's School for the Blind. If nothing else I just want Pruitt to make us not lose bad. 

Grew up and fell in love watching Majors and Fulmer.   It's been hard. I remember thinking 8-5 was horrible and South Carolina and Kentucky (sorry for readers north of the border) were always taken for granted. The good old days...

[jaxjagman]

On 2/8/2018 at 5:13 PM, tnweathernut said:

Vols are YOUNG. James Daniel is the only SR. Future is bright!  

But this is the problem with college Basketball.The NBA can take you from first to last(Unless your Kentucky) in the SEC,you don't know who will declare for the the draft coming up from any team.The SEC has the most talent spread out between the top tier teams than ever before or more than many years ago.Almost every team in the top tier can beat anyone in that top tier badly then the next game they could lose to that same team badly.The SEC tournament will be decided by the team that gets one of the top four byes.Kind of unfair to me how the tournament goes.The first 4 byes don't even have to play until the quarter-finals,clearly this is an advantage for the top four teams with the rest you get

[jaxjagman]

Alabama  gets better each game with Avery Johnson coaching.I'm hoping they don't get one of the byes.They have a tough schedule closing out,Auburn,Kentucky and Florida.It's also possible Kentucky might not even get one of the bye spots in the tourney......whaaaaaaaaaaat !! The Vols have a cheese cake the rest of the way other than the Gators

[nrgjeff]

Kentucky and Kansas are both melting down. Kansas Conference Title streak is in serious jeopardy. Best outcome I can see is sharing with Texas Tech. Until that rematch Kansas has a tougher schedule than Tech. Kansas is already a game down. Well, it fits with a SER from hell coming in.

[Carvers Gap]

On 2/10/2018 at 9:11 PM, jaxjagman said:

Alabama  gets better each game with Avery Johnson coaching.I'm hoping they don't get one of the byes.They have a tough schedule closing out,Auburn,Kentucky and Florida.It's also possible Kentucky might not even get one of the bye spots in the tourney......whaaaaaaaaaaat !! The Vols have a cheese cake the rest of the way other than the Gators

I don't know, man.  South Carolina is a final four team that plays well in February.  UGA is on the road.  Florida is a very good squad that struggled early.  The SEC is as good as it has been in a very long time.  No easy games.  Tennessee has been snakebit at Bama for as long as I can remember in hoops...  The Vols were brought down to Earth.  They are not good enough just to show up.  Have to play every night in the SEC.  That loss could help them in the SEC tourney.  I would not want to play Tennessee twice after putting that thumping on them.  I think sometimes Barnes likes to bring his teams back to reality.  He did that earlier this year.  

[Carvers Gap]

Big game for the Vols tonight against South Carolina.  Will be interesting to see how the Vols respond.  And a 9:00 PM tipoff...man.  Also, looking forward to the ESPN bracket for the forum - for fun only.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

First off I want to apologize for helping along TN Valley Twittergate, 2018.  Since I’m new and have been posting quite a bit the past few days AND I’ve never seen any conversation like what I’ve seen today (I like this sub forum because of the lack of drama) I’m going to put 2 and 2 together and accept some responsibility for it. I know I’m new to posting, but have been lurking for years and I DO NOT want to be any part of any divisions here.

I also feel like I should try to offer my perspectives on what I’ve seen and posted since I obviously wasn’t very clear in the why and how of it all when I was posting.

The past couple of weeks and the next couple of weeks have been and seem to continue to be bad for tracking winter storms. As Carver’s said on some long forgotten thread I remember reading and as John has pointed out today, most people on this board like winter weather.  Lacking that, the Stratosphere stuff is all there’s been, even though as many have pointed out it will likely have a very muted and indirect and delayed effect (if any) here. I 100% agree that the amount of twitter reposting that has happened in the past few days is more than I’ve ever seen on here and I’ve definitely been part of it. Most winter threads I’ve followed here in the past have been folks’ commentaries of H5 potential vortices’ trends, overall 500 mb patterns, and even occasional 240 hour snowsfalls. But there just hasn’t been any of that, so the strat stuff started. Now here’s my explanation for my participation in that:

I really didn’t have any original thoughts about something as uncommon as the SSW and split, so I posted the thoughts of people I saw as respectable. I even tried to offer an opposing view.  Also, if I didn’t link to their twitter feeds I would feel like I was plagiarizing. These were in no way intended to hype something up way out of proportion.  I should have been clearer on that. Maybe I should have just kept quiet about the whole thing lacking original thoughts and will keep this in mind before posting in the future.

However, I will add that I never knew about some of the more respectable twitter scientists before people posted them on these boards. Example: for the longest time I didn’t know who “HM” was and it wasn’t until someone linked to his twitter on these boards that I figured it out. I’ve learned a lot from following him and maybe there are others like me who are only now lurking who might be able to learn from following scientists like him. 

To conclude, I am not trying to IN ANY WAY stir anything up. I sincerely do not want to be a part of anything that causes division here and respect Jeff immensely. He’s blunt and tells you what he thinks, for better or for worse. I like that.   

I just wanted to make my perspective clear and if it isn’t so far I’ll sum it up:

 

I’m glad to be a part of this subforum and respect all of you. Apologies for causing any trouble.

 

Also: I will be posting happy, soothing waterfall pics in the obs thread soon.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

First off I want to apologize for helping along TN Valley Twittergate, 2018.  Since I’m new and have been posting quite a bit the past few days AND I’ve never seen any conversation like what I’ve seen today (I like this sub forum because of the lack of drama) I’m going to put 2 and 2 together and accept some responsibility for it. I know I’m new to posting, but have been lurking for years and I DO NOT want to be any part of any divisions here.

I also feel like I should try to offer my perspectives on what I’ve seen and posted since I obviously wasn’t very clear in the why and how of it all when I was posting.

The past couple of weeks and the next couple of weeks have been and seem to continue to be bad for tracking winter storms. As Carver’s said on some long forgotten thread I remember reading and as John has pointed out today, most people on this board like winter weather.  Lacking that, the Stratosphere stuff is all there’s been, even though as many have pointed out it will likely have a very muted and indirect and delayed effect (if any) here. I 100% agree that the amount of twitter reposting that has happened in the past few days is more than I’ve ever seen on here and I’ve definitely been part of it. Most winter threads I’ve followed here in the past have been folks’ commentaries of H5 potential vortices’ trends, overall 500 mb patterns, and even occasional 240 hour snowsfalls. But there just hasn’t been any of that, so the strat stuff started. Now here’s my explanation for my participation in that:

I really didn’t have any original thoughts about something as uncommon as the SSW and split, so I posted the thoughts of people I saw as respectable. I even tried to offer an opposing view.  Also, if I didn’t link to their twitter feeds I would feel like I was plagiarizing. These were in no way intended to hype something up way out of proportion.  I should have been clearer on that. Maybe I should have just kept quiet about the whole thing lacking original thoughts and will keep this in mind before posting in the future.

However, I will add that I never knew about some of the more respectable twitter scientists before people posted them on these boards. Example: for the longest time I didn’t know who “HM” was and it wasn’t until someone linked to his twitter on these boards that I figured it out. I’ve learned a lot from following him and maybe there are others like me who are only now lurking who might be able to learn from following scientists like him. 

To conclude, I am not trying to IN ANY WAY stir anything up. I sincerely do not want to be a part of anything that causes division here and respect Jeff immensely. He’s blunt and tells you what he thinks, for better or for worse. I like that.   

I just wanted to make my perspective clear and if it isn’t so far I’ll sum it up:

 

I’m glad to be a part of this subforum and respect all of you. Apologies for causing any trouble.

 

Also: I will be posting happy, soothing waterfall pics in the obs thread soon.

You owe no apologies.  Your posts are welcome here.  There is no rule against Twitter.  None that I am aware of anyway.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I appreciate it Carvers, but regardless of right or wrong I don't want to party to any divisions. I just want everybody to get along. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I appreciate it Carvers, but regardless of right or wrong I don't want to party to any divisions. I just want everybody to get along. 

And I agree.  Posting a Tweet is not divisive.  Not sure what is going on...but this is not your fault.  You have been a great poster.  Keep posting.  Sometimes forums require thick skin.  

[Carvers Gap]

Edited.....Decided to post this here w deepest respect.  It is tough to get the tone correct when just using text.  What sounds good to me in my head, can sometimes come across as terse.  Getting the Twitter discussion out of banter.  For the record, I did not get this started today, but felt like this needed to be addressed since there was a second post.  But I think using the winter speculation thread is not the right place for my reply. I am not aware @nrgjeff of any rules against Twitter.  As far as I know, most other forums use Twitter.  I have no problem with it. I feel that the posts from Twitter have been responsible and in moderation during this winter.  I also think that if we are to interest future generations in meteorology, we should work communicate on their terms.  Social media is just part of the times IMO.  And that begins to move into my area of expertise which is education.  Otherwise, we will be just a bunch of old people on a weather forum with no new blood.  I am not a saint in this area...I mishandled things last winter w @Mrwolf1972 and I was wrong.  I incorrectly imposed an unsaid rule.   @jaxjagman called me on it, and he was right.  I grumbled, but Jax was right and so was Mrwolf.   I understand your comment that you desire only original thought.  I think it is an important conversation.  But I am confused...did you post a Twitter thread just last Thursday in another forum?    And for the record, we want you in the winter speculation thread!  

 

[Stovepipe]

Nothing at all wrong with posting other peoples' thoughts from outside this sub forum whether it's from other sub forums, the general, twitter, accuweather guys, Robert, etc.  It's ALL very much welcome.  Hell historically that's pretty much all I've done, with the exception of obs, is copy and paste data, maps, and other's thoughts.  It's even in my title "Copy/Pasta".  If people don't like the content they can skip over it or put me on ignore.  Never heard any complaints about posting content like that before.

Some of the twitter people may have biases and I may not agree with everything but that's fine.  Ryan Maue for example, I don't care for his anti-climate change nonsense but I still am interested to get his take on weather events.  For awhile we used to consistently quote Don Sutherland's amazing posts over here.  There are some weather geniuses in the Southeast forum too.  All together this is a repository of information and discussion that we can all learn from.  Let's keep that going and by all means people do not need to be afraid of posting.  

And Jeff, I have tons of respect for you and what you provide this forum.  Since we're airing our grievances a bit here, I'll go ahead and suggest that it would be nice if you'd keep your political jokes about Mueller etc. out of the main weather threads.  This country is divided as hell right now and there are plenty of places on the internet for snarking about politics.  You may think it's lighthearted fun but others can get riled up or turned off.  Just my frank opinion.

Carry on, and have a great evening.

[Stovepipe]

Possibly 248 National Weather Service forecasters to be fired.

http://fortune.com/2018/02/13/trump-budget-national-weather-service-layoffs/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

[nrgjeff]

I apologize for my conduct this week on here. No excuse for a Met to come in like that on the weather side. Mets are supposed to foster new interest as Carvers notes. This Board is all of yours, not mine. I failed there and I am sorry.

The flare up has nothing to do with Holston posts, which are excellent.

Carvers and I were having a candid forecast disagreement but it was friendly through Friday. I am the one who escalated. Carvers is a great member of the forum with informative posts.

Twitter is OK to share interesting threads or research. I'm a little surprised to see my Plains post over here, kind of like a Political Roundtable cross thread dig.

Speaking of it, some politics will happen, whether it is my jokes, or a partisan headline on an article about weather (see above).

I will have an overall low profile for several days. Daughter has winter break from school for President's Day.

Also looking fwd to our Bracket. I will take the Vols deep. That tenacious defense will take down a Goliath or two.

[Stovepipe]

1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Twitter is OK to share interesting threads or research. I'm a little surprised to see my Plains post over here, kind of like a Political Roundtable cross thread dig.

Speaking of it, some politics will happen, whether it is jokes, or a partisan headline on an article about weather (see above).

Which is why I posted that link in Banter and not a main weather thread.

[EastKnox]

50 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I apologize for my conduct this week on here. No excuse for a Met to come in like that on the weather side. Mets are supposed to foster new interest as Carvers notes. This Board is all of yours, not mine. I failed there and I am sorry.

The flare up has nothing to do with Holston posts, which are excellent.

Carvers and I were having a candid forecast disagreement but it was friendly through Friday. I am the one who escalated. Carvers is a great member of the forum with informative posts.

Twitter is OK to share interesting threads or research. I'm a little surprised to see my Plains post over here, kind of like a Political Roundtable cross thread dig.

Speaking of it, some politics will happen, whether it is my jokes, or a partisan headline on an article about weather (see above).

I will have an overall low profile for several days. Daughter has winter break from school for President's Day.

Also looking fwd to our Bracket. I will take the Vols deep. That tenacious defense will take down a Goliath or two.

I am grateful for the info that both you and Carver's (and others too) consistently deliver to this forum.  I have nothing but respect for the both of you and am glad I'll be seeing you both continue to post.

[Carvers Gap]

Firstly, no big deal.  Jeff, you are hugely appreciated around here.  Seriously.  I brag about your insight to a buddy of mine form Pennsylvania all of the time.   Like I said, I am not a saint when it comes to this issue.  So, I am good.  Thanks for you comments.  And like I said, don't take too low of a profile.  If I did anything to step on your toes, I definitely apologize.  I see it more like we(hobby folks) are just trying to one-up the teacher every once in a while.  We know it won't happen often.  It doesn't mean that we forget who has the expertise, but we can never get better if we don't test ourselves against the best.  Hopefully that comes across as a compliment.  And it will be a rare day that a person that does this for a hobby sneaks one past you or Mr. Bob.  I think we all appreciate the mets who post on this forum.  I think we have at least three others that participate as well and they are appreciated.  The worst thing that could happen in our forum is to lose the professionals that post here and/or to lose those seasoned posters that anchor the forum.  Now, that does not mean we don't want new posters.  Bring it on folks...we want you posting.  

Secondly(to everyone), I post because I enjoy the weather.  I used to be in this because I like to look at snow totals, but I have learned that I enjoy more than that.  I think a lot of us, including me, lean very heavily on numerical model output early-on because that is all that we know.  Over time by reading this forum and other forums(including the SE which I like a bunch of the folks over there), I have learned to see a little above the horizon, but still a long way to go as I have no professional training in the field.   But it is never my intent to become "the" poster on the board.  It as its most enjoyable for me when everyone is posting.  I forgot that last winter and like I said, Jax reminded me and was correct.  Now, I encourage you all to stop in during the summer.  The severe thread, the Nino thread, the pattern thread can be interesting.  Add in that we had some tropical stuff last year, it is a great time to learn about a different season.  

Lastly, time to get back to talking about the weather.  I posted earlier that we have over 100k views in the winter speculation thread.  That is our first to top that number and hopefully not our last.  I think the word is out that our forum has very good(if not spirited at times)  and level discussion about our region.  

[Hilton01]

I visit this forum (Tennessee Valley) when I want to read/learn about the weather.  I go to the SE page when I need some entertainment or a laugh.  It is always nice to be able to read about the latest brick bashing or sky healing incident.  Sorta like a secret soap opera escape.  Unfortunately, living where we do, these winters now often result in the entertainment value of the SE being almost as pressing/important as the actual winter weather.  Thank you to all of you who post here, it is a daily, often hourly or more habit of mine.  I truly appreciate all that each of you bring to the discussion.

[nrgjeff]

I completely understand. Yes I take it as a compliment. Confession #2: I was in a peeing contest with an energy trader. Oh yes I do the same thing, lol.

23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

...I see it more like we(hobby folks) are just trying to one-up the teacher every once in a while.  We know it won't happen often.  It doesn't mean that we forget who has the expertise, but we can never get better if we don't test ourselves against the best.  Hopefully that comes across as a compliment...

Now that energy markets have vindicated my cause, I am hoping the Euro weeklies follow the CFS colder tonight. Although the 11-15 day looks bad, March can turn quickly either direction. Hopefully it comes in like a lion.

Yes Stove, I will chill out on partisan jokes. We can all laugh at Congress blowing hot air, but I should not joke about an important role of law enforcement.

Believe the NWS should remain fully staffed. We have all this awesome technology from dual-pole radar to GOES-16; but, it does no good without the humans. Maybe they can move away from rigid shifts to more flexible schedules with the weather. However they should not lay off even one person. Keep the NWS fully staffed.

[ShawnEastTN]

Not sure if anyone else has come across this article, but very interesting read on a study from Dartmouth claiming average cooling of 1.2 degrees for the SE since the 1950s.  Very interesting read in how it is an anomaly to the global pattern.

Dartmouth Warming Hole Study 

[nrgjeff]

Yes the Tennessee Valley and parts of Ohio Valley may not see as much warming as the rest of the Lower 48 / World. There are other cooler spots in the World. Models have also done it and so far done it fairly well. Are we drifting into climate? We could safely say the discussion would be more civil in our Region.

[jaxjagman]

Auburn lost to SC today.But the big story would be the loss of McLemore who dislocated his ankle.Bad timing and a big blow for us.We won't go far without him and Brown with a bum shouder.

I'm expecting that we won't be eligible for the tournament either way with the investigation on going and what is said to be almost wrapped up.But now almost 3 dozen teams teams could be affected by the last SI report.But you never know with the NCAA,you can have one team do the crime and another team do the same crime and one team could could slapped hard while the other team gets there hand slapped and nothing comes of it

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/02/14/college-basketball-recruiting-scandal-fbi-probe-violations-punishments