Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest

[PrinceFrederickWx]

It's time for my 3rd annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region!

 

You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. Snowfall totals should be rounded to the nearest tenth of an inch. The tiebreaker this year will the total snowfall NWS records at Salisbury Airport (SBY). While this is not an "official" climo location, NWS does keep records on it and I thought it would be fun to involve the Eastern Shore people more in the contest.

 

Please use the following format when posting your forecast:

BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY):

The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. (A second post will explain this in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification.)

The deadline for entries is Thursday, Nov. 30 at 11:59pm. No extensions will be given, so please have your forecasts in by then! You are welcome to edit your forecasts as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well.

The winner will be announced sometime in mid/late April. I'll be giving periodic updates as to who's leading throughout the winter when I have time. If you have any questions, feel free to post here or PM me.

Good luck everyone!

 

 

 

 

[RickinBaltimore]

BWI: 8.4"
DCA: 5.6"
IAD: 7.3"
RIC: 4.3"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 2.7"

[PrinceFrederickWx]

*This post is just to clarify how the totals are calculated, since there's been some confusion on it in the past.*

 

The winner is the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all for airports. This means the departures will be calculated for each individual airport, the absolute value of each one of those will be taken, and then all four totals will be added. This format rewards players who had more skill in forecasting individual airports rather than someone who was only correct at the total level because incorrect forecasts cancelled each other out.

 

 

For example, if you forecasted:

BWI: 0"

DCA: 0"

IAD: 0"

RIC: 10"

 

The actual seasonal totals were:

BWI: 2.5"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 2.5"

RIC: 2.5"

 

Your absolute value departures would be:

BWI: 2.5

DCA: 2.5

IAD: 2.5

RIC: 7.5

 

Your total departure would be 15 (not zero!)

[Cobalt]

BWI: 14.6"
DCA: 9.2"
IAD: 13.8"
RIC: 6.5"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.4"

[BristowWx]

BWI: 7.9"
DCA: 3.2"
IAD: 5.7"
RIC: 2.2"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 2.8"

[North Balti Zen]

BWI: 16.4"
DCA: 10.8"
IAD: 23.5"
RIC: 9.3"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1"

[yoda]

BWI: 12.7"
DCA: 9.4"
IAD: 14.6"
RIC: 4.8"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 2.9"

[KingJWx]

BWI: 9.6
DCA: 7.2
IAD: 11.5
RIC: 4.1

Tiebreaker (SBY): 2.8

[NorthArlington101]

BWI: 17.5"
DCA: 12.1"
IAD: 21.2"
RIC: 7.8"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 9.9"

Gotta stick with my signature a little bit here. I'm used to tossing away December at this point, so I'm not that phased by current developments. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I'll put in mine now too:

BWI: 12.5"
DCA: 8.8"
IAD: 13.1"
RIC: 2.3"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.0"

[Eskimo Joe]

Can we add HGR as a site as well to give the hill folk some love?  

 

My thoughts:

 

BWI:  12.0"

DCA: 10."

IAD: 17.0"

RIC: 10.0"

HGR*: 28.0"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 8.0"

[ErinInTheSky]

BWI: 15.0"
DCA: 17.0"
IAD: 19.0"
RIC: 6.0"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.0"

[Onceinalifetime2009-10]

BWI:7.2
DCA:6.0
IAD:13.5
RIC:3.5

Tiebreaker (SBY):0

[gopper]

BWI:  17

DCA: 13

IAD: 21

RIC: 11

Tiebreaker SBY: 9

[PCT_ATC]

On 11/1/2017 at 10:08 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

BWI:  23.7
DCA: 8.7 (snow hole)  16.2 @Arlington Courthouse
IAD: 26.8
RIC: 8.7  RIC.. the new DCA!

Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.6

 

[winter_warlock]

BWI:23.5
DCA:17.5
IAD:26.5
RIC:10.5

Tiebreaker (SBY:5.5

[CAPE]

BWI: 15
DCA: 10.5
IAD: 18
RIC: 7.5

SBY: 7.5

Westminster: 28.5

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

BWI: 45
DCA: 35
IAD: 45
RIC: 20

[NorthArlington101]

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

BWI: 45
DCA: 35
IAD: 45
RIC: 20

Somehow I knew you'd have really high numbers.

[RIC Airport]

BWI: 38.9"

DCA: 37.1"

IAD: 46.4"

RIC: 30.4"

 

SBY: 29.2

[mattie g]

22 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

BWI: 45
DCA: 35
IAD: 45
RIC: 20

Plenty of model runs between now and November 30 for you to change your mind.

[Eskimo Joe]

22 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

BWI: 45
DCA: 35
IAD: 45
RIC: 20

 You sure you didn't mean to put a decimal point in the middle?

[Ger]

BWI: 44

DCA: 26 (anywhere outside the immediate airport vicinity, 34"+)

IAD: 41

RIC: 13

SBY: 16

Westminster/HGR: 55 and 50, respectively

Thinking we (BWI) hit the jackpot with a NESIS level 3/4, plus a 6-10er and a couple 2-4s. 

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 11/1/2017 at 1:46 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Can we add HGR as a site as well to give the hill folk some love?  

As far as I can tell, LWX only collects temp and liquid precip measurements at HGR, not snowfall.

If that data is out there somewhere and I'm not aware of it, let me know and I'll consider adding HGR as a tiebreaker next year.

[mattie g]

BWI: 20.1"
DCA: 15.4"
IAD: 22.0"
RIC: 10.3"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 9.3"

I took the easy way out this year...

[PrinceFrederickWx]

34 minutes ago, mattie g said:

BWI: 20.1"
DCA: 15.4"
IAD: 22.0"
RIC: 10.3"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 9.3"

I took the easy way out this year...

I see what you did there... climo lol

[Interstate]

BWI: 34.3
DCA: 25.4
IAD: 41.3
RIC: 22.2

Tiebreaker (SBY): 12.4

[yoda]

1 hour ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

BWI: 34.3
DCA: 25.4
IAD: 41.3
RIC: 22.2

Tiebreaker (SBY): 12.4

Go big or go home lol

[Interstate]

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Go big or go home lol

I think I will be on the low end of totals

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The forecasts keep getting bigger and bigger. I love these calls with balls. I want to see someone go all out and call for 100” at BWI (usually attml fills that role every year).

Keep the entries coming- the more the better! Especially lurkers- don’t be afraid to join in!