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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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With a 5 pm reading of 41° at Central Park and the guidance, it appears likely that Central Park will see its first readings of the season in the 30s later this evening or tomorrow. The first such reading on November 7 or 8 would be the latest date for a sub-40° reading since 1994. The first reading below 40° occurred on November 11 in 1994. That temperature was 38°.

Such a late reading does not necessarily indicate that New York City and the surrounding region would see very little snowfall. Snowfall amounts for New York City for winters following the first reading in the 30s on November 7 or later were as follows:

1898 (November 11): 55.9”
1916 (November 12): 50.7”
1938 (November 15): 37.3”
1943 (November 9): 23.8”
1946 (November 13): 30.6” (October mean: 61.7°)
1955 (November 8): 33.5”
1961 (November 9): 18.1” (October mean: 61.1°)
1971 (November 7): 22.9” (October mean: 62.7°)
1977 (November 12): 50.7”
1994 (November 11): 11.8”

 

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NYC is on track for its first record low temperature in November since 1976 . Pretty impressive considering how much colder September and October 1976 were than this year. Almost like a November version of the February 2016 record cold following such an historic warm pattern.

 

5a023cc573187_Screenshot2017-11-07at6_04_01PM.png.d0df820c9d8ed92c404e3c7e57d8cee1.png

 

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC is on track for its first record low temperature in November since 1976 . Pretty impressive considering how much colder September and October 1976 were than this year. Almost like a November version of the February 2016 record cold following such an historic warm pattern.

 

5a023cc573187_Screenshot2017-11-07at6_04_01PM.png.d0df820c9d8ed92c404e3c7e57d8cee1.png

 

 

Amazing how those record lows really drop off after the 15th

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1 hour ago, SI Mailman said:
1 hour ago, ThatHurricane said:
Do you think there is a possibility at a trace of snow at any of the NYC observing stations? I think the temperature is still going down here. It would be cool to have the first trace of snow in NYC so early.
 

today is the 5 year anniversary of the post-sandy snowstorm.

Measured 7" here...quite the stretch of weather.

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I got 7" where I lived on Staten Island at the time...here is a list of first snows for NYC since 1947...

 

Year.....trace.....0.1"

1947...11/15...12/10

1948...11/29...12/15

1949...11/18...11/27

 

1950...11/21...12/16

1951...11/03...12/15

1952...10/21...10/21

1953...11/06...11/06

1954...11/02...12/21

1955...11/19...11/19

1956...11/23...12/09

1957...11/23...12/03

1958...11/03...12/08

1959...11/29...11/29

 

1960...10/24...12/11

1961...11/09...12/09

1962...10/26...12/09

1963...11/30...12/12

1964...12/06...12/06

1965...10/28...01/20

1966...12/02...12/21

1967...11/07...11/30

1968...11/12...12/15

1969...11/30...12/25

 

1970...12/05...12/15

1971...11/10...01/05

1972...10/18...01/29 latest date for first 0.1"+...

1973...12/11...12/16

1974...11/25...11/25

1975...11/14...12/22

1976...11/29...12/25

1977...11/12...11/27

1978...11/21...11/27

1979...10/10...12/19 earliest date for first trace...

 

1980...11/17...12/15

1981...12/06...12/11

1982...12/11...12/12

1983...11/25...12/22

1984...11/13...12/05

1985...11/16...12/05

1986...11/05...12/09

1987...11/06...11/11

1988...12/10...12/13

1989...11/22...11/22

 

1990...12/05...12/27

1991...11/08...12/05

1992...12/11...12/12

1993...11/20...12/11

1994...11/23...01/11

1995...11/12...11/29

1996...11/14...11/28

1997...11/14...01/18

1998...12/23...12/23

1999...12/27...01/20

 

2000...10/29...12/08

2001...12/17...01/07

2002...10/29...12/05

2003...12/05...12/05

2004...11/13...12/19

2005...11/24...12/04

2006...01/10...01/19 latest date for the first trace...

2007...11/19...12/02

2008...11/20...12/16

2009...12/05...12/19

 

2010...11/08...12/14

2011...10/29...10/29

2012...11/07...11/07

2013...11/12...12/08

2014...11/13...11/26

2015...12/28...01/17

2016...11/20...12/11

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Maybe 2 or 3 weeks. Anyway, the late NW jog on guidance is something to keep in mind going forward.

Same thing happened early last season, nam went on stretch nailing the first 3-4 light events to start off the season before failing miserably on a learner event, these boundary layer events alsways seem to get picked up well by the nam

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