SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 This coming cold shot will be a huge slap to the face after experiencing record warmth since September. Tomorrow looks pretty chilly as well, don't see highs getting out of the mid 40s if it rains, possibly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 24 hrs away and it’s still way off . Rgem seems more believable It's gonna be a long season in here lol...I really dreaded the return of snow maps and model hugging. Anyway, looks like some cold nights for us coming up later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: 95-96 was a good winter. I remember it well from JHS 93-94 Awesome 94-95 El nino with 10 inches of snow in the city. All from a Feb snowstorm that ended in some mixing. 95-96 Awesome We will see... 95/96 was epic. Just solid straight through. I too was in JHS. Made a killing with my buddy’s after the blizzard of 96. 96/97 was pretty awful at the coast. The one snow storm ended in pouring rain and a slushy mess. Anyone expecting snow anytime soon near the coast is in for dissapointment. 63 degree water is going to kill any threat. We saw that with the 2011 storm. Real snow accumulations started near the queens border. Your going to need a perfect setup like November 2012 with a just east of the benchmark track and a real bomb. Winds are going to have to be straight north. Any east in the flow at all and it’s game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 95/96 was epic. Just solid straight through. I too was in JHS. Made a killing with my buddy’s after the blizzard of 96. 96/97 was pretty awful at the coast. The one snow storm ended in pouring rain and a slushy mess. Anyone expecting snow anytime soon near the coast is in for dissapointment. 63 degree water is going to kill any threat. We saw that with the 2011 storm. Real snow accumulations started near the queens border. Your going to need a perfect setup like November 2012 with a just east of the benchmark track and a real bomb. Winds are going to have to be straight north. Any east in the flow at all and it’s game over. That's actually a fair point, but I think that most here are excited at the prospect of avoiding the holiday season torches we've endured the past few years. I'm cautiously optimistic right now. Hopefully things continue to break in our favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 hours ago, psv88 said: You are correct. Winter ended end of January 2011 NYC could have easily beaten 1996 if that winter didn't end in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 95/96 was epic. Just solid straight through. I too was in JHS. Made a killing with my buddy’s after the blizzard of 96. 96/97 was pretty awful at the coast. The one snow storm ended in pouring rain and a slushy mess. Anyone expecting snow anytime soon near the coast is in for dissapointment. 63 degree water is going to kill any threat. We saw that with the 2011 storm. Real snow accumulations started near the queens border. Your going to need a perfect setup like November 2012 with a just east of the benchmark track and a real bomb. Winds are going to have to be straight north. Any east in the flow at all and it’s game over. November 2012 happened early in the month We are starting to get later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Next 8 days keeps getting colder, now averaging 43degs., or a solid 6degs. BN. Don't know what to believe for after this surprise dip, since AN is predicted from mid-Nov. to Dec. 06 or so by the output that formerly indicated we would be waiting till Week 3 for a change. At any rate, 'Next 45' are shown as Normal or less now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 hours ago, JerseyWx said: It's gonna be a long season in here lol...I really dreaded the return of snow maps and model hugging. Anyway, looks like some cold nights for us coming up later this week. Finally got a good freeze .28.6 was my low last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: That's why the day 11-15 part of the EPS forecast is so important. The blocking has to build across the pole to Greenland otherwise this was just a transient pattern change caused by the MJO. If the AO drops strongly enough, then it could have the lasting power to persist into December. I would like to see the stronger -AO actually verify first since the models have been too bulllish longer range with their AO forecasts in recent years. So far I like what I am seeing. The EPS builds the ridge between HB and Greenland. It's AO is - 3SD after day 10 and it's NAO is negative. I am looking for something big off the east coast under that block Thanksgiving week. We started talking about 2 days ago away. The 500 looks good the surface could / should materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Interestingly the EURO achieves this BN spell we are in on the BN 850mb. temps. solely. It keeps 500mb heights 10 to 30 meters AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Forecast low of 22 Friday night. That is incredible for early November. The swings between records highs and lows has been absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's been a piece of cake getting record blocking over the NE Pacific since April 2013. But it has been more challenge to get strong enough Greenland blocking. That's why I want to see the blocking verify strong enough there first. the water is warmer south of Greenland this fall. In recent years there has been a cold pool which coincided with much less -NAO....let's see if there's more blocking this year. We also have a quiet sun which can help high altitude blocking patterns from what I have read.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 A big east coast storm is most likely going to happen if the models are right with the pattern. The precip will be determined later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 95/96 was epic. Just solid straight through. I too was in JHS. Made a killing with my buddy’s after the blizzard of 96. 96/97 was pretty awful at the coast. The one snow storm ended in pouring rain and a slushy mess. Anyone expecting snow anytime soon near the coast is in for dissapointment. 63 degree water is going to kill any threat. We saw that with the 2011 storm. Real snow accumulations started near the queens border. Your going to need a perfect setup like November 2012 with a just east of the benchmark track and a real bomb. Winds are going to have to be straight north. Any east in the flow at all and it’s game over. 1993-1994 was my all-time favorite. Could be because I was in JHS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 The models continue to point to an exceptionally cold air mass for November 11. Forecast low temperatures for November 11 (11/7/2017 0z MOS ) included: Albany: 8° (Record: 15°) Bridgeport: 20° (Record: 22°) Danbury: 15° (Record: 14°) Islip: 22° (Record: 24°) New Haven: 22° (Record: 16°) New York City: …JFK: 25° (Record: 28°) …LGA: 24° (Record: 29°) …NYC: 22° (Record: 28°) Newark: 18° (Record: 25°) Poughkeepsie: 15° (Record: 13°) Westhampton: 16° (Record: 21°) White Plains: 18° (Record: 20°) Should the Albany forecast verify, the 8° low temperature would be Albany’s earliest single-digit reading on record. The current record is 7°, which was established on November 16, 1972. 1972-73 did not prove to be a snowy winter in much of the Northeast. Should the Newark forecast verify, the 18° reading would be the earliest sub-20° on record in Newark. The earliest reading in the teens occurred on November 15, 1933 when the temperature dipped to 18°. Winter 1933-34 saw historic cold in February and above normal snowfall in much of the East. The last time the temperature fell below 25° in New York City (NYC) prior to November 15 was November 14, 1986 when the low temperature was 22°. The temperature has never fallen below 20° in New York City prior to November 16. Winter 1986-87 saw somewhat below normal snowfall in parts of the East, but above normal snowfall in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. In the longer-range, the pattern approaching November 20 seems to be one that might linger for a time. If so, American Thanksgiving Day could wind up on the cooler side of normal in much of the Northeast and Ohio Valley (along with Ontario and Quebec). There are some similarities to the pattern that took hold in late November 1981, but it remains to be seen whether that will wind up being the case. Much will depend on whether the forecast blocking takes hold resulting in a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). Afterward, should December prove snowy, that could be a strong signal that the coming winter could feature above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, rgwp96 said: Finally got a good freeze .28.6 was my low last night Seems a little low, no? Most stations around the area were 33-35. I was at 34 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The models continue to point to an exceptionally cold air mass for November 11. Forecast low temperatures for November 11 (11/7/2017 0z MOS ) included: Albany: 8° (Record: 15°) Bridgeport: 20° (Record: 22°) Danbury: 15° (Record: 14°) Islip: 22° (Record: 24°) New Haven: 22° (Record: 16°) New York City: …JFK: 25° (Record: 19°) …LGA: 24° (Record: 29°) …NYC: 22° (Record: 28°) Newark: 18° (Record: 25°) Poughkeepsie: 15° (Record: 13°) Westhampton: 16° (Record: 21°) White Plains: 18° (Record: 20°) Should the Albany forecast verify, the 8° low temperature would be Albany’s earliest single-digit reading on record. The current record is 7°, which was established on November 16, 1972. 1972-73 did not prove to be a snowy winter in much of the Northeast. Should the Newark forecast verify, the 18° reading would be the earliest sub-20° on record in Newark. The earliest reading in the teens occurred on November 15, 1933 when the temperature dipped to 18°. Winter 1933-34 saw historic cold in February and above normal snowfall in much of the East. The last time the temperature fell below 25° in New York City (NYC) prior to November 15 was November 14, 1986 when the low temperature was 22°. The temperature has never fallen below 20° in New York City prior to November 16. Winter 1986-87 saw somewhat below normal snowfall in parts of the East, but above normal snowfall in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. In the longer-range, the pattern approaching November 20 seems to be one that might linger for a time. If so, American Thanksgiving Day could wind up on the cooler side of normal in much of the Northeast and Ohio Valley (along with Ontario and Quebec). There are some similarities to the pattern that took hold in late November 1981, but it remains to be seen whether that will wind up being the case. Much will depend on whether the forecast blocking takes hold resulting in a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). Afterward, should December prove snowy, that could be a strong signal that the coming winter could feature above normal snowfall. What’s up with that JFK 19? It doesn’t seem accurate compared to the other records. I understand it radiates slightly better but not enough for such a discrepency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What’s up with that JFK 19? It doesn’t seem accurate compared to the other records. I understand it radiates slightly better but not enough for such a discrepency. Yeah, surprised that JFK has gotten that cold in the first half of Nov before. I wonder what year that record was set? Maybe a time less urban than now. SE Queens leans somewhat suburban as it is now. Dunno how different it was 50 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Dakota said: The record low @ JFK for 11 November was 28 F in 1973 per the OKX webpage. There could be a glitch or some missing data; it does happen... The 19 F might refer to the 19 F recorded @ JFK on 30 November 1976 or 21 November 1987; the station's all time record low for the entire month of November. It was a typo on my part. Thanks for the correct value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 48 degrees in the park at noon (1 pm on the old clock...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS may be onto something day 11-15 with the block building across the pole to Greenland. I just like to see it get within the 6-10 EPS range which has much better skill than day 11-15. i wonder if those higher heights near greenland are just a response to the very deep trough over western canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 system zooming in from the west-went from clear to overcast in about an hour here...temps dropping as precip tries to overspread...down to 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i wonder if those higher heights near greenland are just a response to the very deep trough over western canada I was going to say the same thing earlier but didn’t want to get accused of anything lol. That does not look like a legit, cutoff high/block over Greenland, most likely a downstream response to a strong RNA pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I was going to say the same thing earlier but didn’t want to get accused of anything lol. That does not look like a legit, cutoff high/block over Greenland, most likely a downstream response to a strong RNA pattern It depends how far over the Pole that block can get. If it links up with the Kara Sea ridge and forms a true -AO, then real good times ahead. Especially if the modeled higher heights over Siberia take place. On the other hand, if we just get a weak east-based NAO, that may allow the retrograding pattern in the Pacific to warm up the East again. If that Aleutian ridge gets too far west, the trough will drop into the West, and the RNA pattern will allow the SE ridge to strengthen. I do see a lot of good signals for blocking, so I'm leaning towards the colder scenarios. The presence of high snow cover over Canada also makes me more confident in the delivery of cold airmasses. We shouldn't get much moderation with the extent and depth of the developing Canadian snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 The initial ridging is in response to the trough on the W shores of Canada but it connects with the height building over the pole. The ridging doesn't escape and the trough then gets stuck underneath. The ridging post day 8 are height rises that connect all the way to the Kara sea and maintains the blocking between Hudson Bay and Greenland post day 10. The trough on the W coast of Canada looks to retrograde W towards the Aleutians and should allow for the trough to develop again by day 11 thru 15. You can see that on both the EPS and GEFS post day 10. That is not a transient feature IMO but a real -AO/-NAO developing / it's duration can be debated. There is a ton of high lattitude blocking there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 A few inquiries to ponder: [1] Are the geopotential height rises progged by model guidance over the NATL consistent with current hemispheric and global physical forcing mechanisms? [2] If yes, are those forcing mechanisms indicative of an ephemeral pulse of favorability, or will they persist overall for the duration of the cold season? [3] With respect to any seasonal guidance suggestive of a mean -NAO/AO pattern, what factors have or have not altered over the past year which would enable that guidance to verify? Conversely, concerning any seasonal guidance indicative of a mean +NAO/AO - are the variables which aided in inducing a stronger than normal vortex still present? NAO prognostication is multifactorial, so it is important to examine all factors. My opinion is that there is a legitimate phase change occurring, due in part to positive feedback with vortex weakening via wave 2 forcing, which, contemporaneously with poleward -AAM propagation and other top-down factors such as easterly shear stress, will permit a response in the troposphere. However, in the medium to longer term, the tropospheric pattern begins to evolve such that it projects more strongly onto a vortex intensification precursor. This will complicate matters down the road, specifically with regards to the extent to which the upcoming -NAO action center persists. That question will be parsed out as we get a little closer; let's first enter the medium range of block initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Seems a little low, no? Most stations around the area were 33-35. I was at 34 again. I think you are correct , just had my sensors replaced and even the day tenps seems way low . I give up with this wxstation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Chilly day out there today and very fall like. Current temp is 47 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just overcast here 43/34. Radar showing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Heavy radar echoes is because of melting aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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