North and West Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: ummm yeah...24 degrees would do the trick Wait... kills the tree?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Looks like a real negative -AO?. It's been a long since I seen something like this. We'll see if it really happens. We've seen that so many times 10 days out and it hasn't verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We'll see if it really happens. We've seen that so many times 10 days out and it hasn't verified All the cold air in Canada means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, North and West said: Wait... kills the tree?!? no the leaves will be history-often around here when we get a hard freeze and the leaves are still on the trees-they will just drop off almost all at once...whether they are green or yellow etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We'll see if it really happens. We've seen that so many times 10 days out and it hasn't verified Not with all the models showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Wow. Next 7 days down again---to 44degs., or a good 5 degrees BN. Never thought this turn around would happen this fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 I've seen support for -AO/NAO in some studies. I see support on ensembles that mostly line up with that thinking. I'm buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Wow. Next 7 days down again---to 44degs., or a good 5 degrees BN. Never thought this turn around would happen this fast. But you continue to entertain us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We'll see if it really happens. We've seen that so many times 10 days out and it hasn't verified Agreed, best to be cautious as things can easily revert to less negative. Seeing the EPS trending more negative is reassuring though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: no the leaves will be history-often around here when we get a hard freeze and the leaves are still on the trees-they will just drop off almost all at once...whether they are green or yellow etc. Exactly, it’s not going to kill the trees. The November 12 snowstorm is a good example. Other then that I don’t think we have ever had such a hard freeze at the current foliage level in our lifetimes. It’s going to be interesting and I for one am curious as to what will happen. We aren’t talking your normal late droppers like Norway Mapples and Pears. This is going to effect allot of sensitive vegetation. I fully expect a major full scale leaf drop this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Cold front blowing through. Delicious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Euro weeklies say total pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 The -AO/-NAO is great if you enjoy cold and dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The -AO/-NAO is great if you enjoy cold and dry conditions. It can work out during and after the reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Exactly, it’s not going to kill the trees. The November 12 snowstorm is a good example. Other then that I don’t think we have ever had such a hard freeze at the current foliage level in our lifetimes. It’s going to be interesting and I for one am curious as to what will happen. We aren’t talking your normal late droppers like Norway Mapples and Pears. This is going to effect allot of sensitive vegetation. I fully expect a major full scale leaf drop this weekend. Thank you for the clarification!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, Morris said: Euro weeklies say total pattern flip. They don’t make sense. They are showing an El Niño pattern. We have a coupled La Niña reflection in the atmosphere and have for months; low AAM, classic La Niña tropical convective forcing and the PDO is dropping. The pattern it shows at week 4 is not jiving with the current Niña picture. View with extreme caution. Not saying what it shows is not possible but it is not making a whole lot of sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/6/2017 at 6:14 PM, snowman19 said: They don’t make sense. They are showing an El Niño pattern. We have a coupled La Niña reflection in the atmosphere and have for months; low AAM, classic La Niña tropical convective forcing and the PDO is dropping. The pattern it shows at week 4 is not jiving with the current Niña picture. View with extreme caution. Not saying what it shows is not possible but it is not making a whole lot of sense The EPS and GEFS connect the ridge from Alaska over the pole all the way to the Kara sea after day 10. You have a forecast - 3 SD AO with some of the coldest anomalies showing up in Canada that should produce something in the northeast around Thanksgiving. You can see the massive ridging that set up through the Alluetians which has been bending that PAC jet over the pole and that makes total sense. So you have no warm zonal PAC air in the pattern. We have had a SE ridge which will get depressed as the trough gets stuck under the high lattitude blocking. You're going to get off to a fast start here and the week 4 CFS agreed with this a week ago. As long as those heights build over the pole and the weeklies show that throughout its forecast period then you are going to push of the SE ridge. Of course you treat every 3 to 6 week forecast with caution but if that blocking is real then we could get off to fast start. I think we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Temp in the city dropped 10 degrees behind the front. From 66 to 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 On 11/3/2017 at 5:23 PM, NJwx85 said: I’m not buying a shift towards below normal temps next week. Highs for early November in the city should still be near 50. Instead I believed we see a gradual cool down followed by longer stretches of milder weather, sort of like how tomorrow will only be in the upper 50’s while Sunday and Monday should bring middle to upper 60’s, followed by another quick cool down. It seems the ridge tries to rebuild, and then these fast moving Northern stream disturbances, almost clippers attempt to bring in a cold shot, only to be quickly shunted out. I suspect once the blocking regime re-establishes itself, the southeast ridge will win out. Still believe this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: There's a small subset of La Nina Novembers with strong blocking near the Aleutians extending to Greenland. It happened before in 2010, 1995,1985, and 1950. And the Decembers in those years were pretty fab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Euro weeklies show some snow even down here in long range The snow in Canada is insane for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: The EPS and GEFS connect the ridge from Alaska over the pole all the way to the Kara sea after day 10. You have a forecast - 3 SD AO with some of the coldest anomalies showing up in Canada that should produce something substantial in the northeast around Thanksgiving. You can see the massive ridging that set up through the Alluetians which has been bending that PAC jet over the pole and that makes total sense. So you have no warm zonal PAC air in the pattern. We have had a SE ridge which will get depressed as the trough gets stuck under the high lattitude blocking. You're going to get off to a fast start here and the week 4 CFS agreed with this a week ago. As long as those heights build over the pole and the weeklies show that throughout its forecast period then you are going to push of the SE ridge. Of course you treat every 3 to 6 week forecast with caution but if that blocking is real then we could get off to fast start. I think we do. No argument with you. The reason I’m saying to view it with suspicion is that this year, we have classic Niña forcing. The El Niño setup it shows by week 4 is very suspect but possible. Guess we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2010-2011 a good analog moving forward ? The models are showing alot of blocking. That winter was also front loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2010-2011 a good analog moving forward ? The models are showing alot of blocking. That winter was also front loaded. I think too many people are being over zealous right now. We're seeing hints of a colder pattern, there's nothing definite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think too many people are being over zealous right now. We're seeing hints of a colder pattern, there's nothing definite. I agree. People forget that just because it’s cold doesn’t mean it will snow. We have been threading the needle the last few years big time. It could easily just be 30/40s for highs and dry. I would rather save this pattern for January or February anyway. Ohh and coastal buddy’s the waters 63 degrees. I’m still surfing in a spring/fall suit. This screams precip issues to me ala October 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2010-2011 a good analog moving forward ? The models are showing alot of blocking. That winter was also front loaded. I believe that winter the cold anomalies shifted about midway through and as soon as they did the winter basically ended. I may be confusing it with another La Niña winter but I thihk I'm correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I believe that winter the cold anomalies shifted about midway through and as soon as they did the winter basically ended. I may be confusing it with another La Niña winter but I thihk I'm correct. You are correct. Winter ended end of January 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 95-96 was a good winter. I remember it well from JHS 93-94 Awesome 94-95 El nino with 10 inches of snow in the city. All from a Feb snowstorm that ended in some mixing. 95-96 Awesome We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NAM! 24 hrs away and it’s still way off . Rgem seems more believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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