Tatamy Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Animal said: Is this legit. Saw a few post about snow possible mid week and sunday. Mt Holly NWS has not mention of it. 0z NAM 12K had this also. Looks like an outlier for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 How does a -PNA affect us if AO/NAO are negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: How does a -PNA affect us if AO/NAO are negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, Animal said: Is this legit. Saw a few post about snow possible mid week and sunday. Mt Holly NWS has not mention of it. No it's typical NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 0z NAM 12K had this also. Looks like an outlier for now. 12z NAM backs off - just a small accumulation across NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 46 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z NAM backs off - just a small accumulation across NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 It's November 6 and I've already had my fill of NAM snow maps for the season. No more pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: On the site that calculates the Kuchera ratio it shows up to 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Oh... now we're doing Kuchera for the NAM with no other model support for moisture in the area. That's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 There could be a few flakes mixed in, especially over the higher terrain of NE PA and the Southern tier of NY, however moisture and lift will be limited and the BL is marginal at best to support frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 The 12z RGEM supports the idea of a few mangled or wet flakes mixing in over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 According to the most recent ensemble guidance, an air mass that is 1.5σ to 2.0σ below normal is forecast to move through the region on November 11. Such an air mass would suggest near record to perhaps record low temperatures in New York City and its suburbs. In addition, the latest ensemble guidance is now providing a fairly high confidence idea that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could become negative to strongly negative after November 10. With wave lengths beginning to lengthen, such an outcome would suggest somewhat colder readings than would be typical. As a result, even as November still appears likely to finish warmer than normal, the implied probability of such an outcome is lower than it was at the beginning of the month. Furthermore, the implied probability of the month's averaging 50° or above has fallen to about 1-in-3. The probability of a record warm autumn has also fallen. After November 20, it remains to be seen whether the forecast blocking will be sustained. If it is, the month could end on a cold note. If not, a warmer and possibly zonal pattern could develop. The CFSv2 favors the redevelopment of warmth. However, until recently, it did not pick up on the development of what will likely be a cold period commencing later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Animal said: Is this legit. Saw a few post about snow possible mid week and sunday. Mt Holly NWS has not mention of it. RGEM gives a inch. Most likely won't happen but it's good to see some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: RGEM gives a inch. Most likely won't happen but it's good to see some support. I would go with a few flakes for the interior with a slight possibility of a slushy accumulation for the highest spots. Animal prob has the best shot out of all of us of seeing any accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Animal said: Is this legit. Saw a few post about snow possible mid week and sunday. Mt Holly NWS has not mention of it. UPTON The first forecast challenge is precipitation chances Tuesday night. A series of lows will develop along the frontal boundary south of the region through the middle of the week. The first of these passes Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS is a glancing blow. The NAM has a decent band of moderate precipitation over the area. The ECMWF is dry. The non-NAM solution has been favored by WPC, but with the latest SREF coming in with 25-50% chance of measurable, slight chances have been included in the forecast for the southern 2/3 of the area. The SREF even has low probabilities for measurable snow across portions of the Hudson Valley. If wetter scenario does develop, some wet snow cannot be ruled out over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 12z GFS also has a freeze on both Friday morning (and evening) and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 The 12z GFS was even colder than its 0z and 6z runs for November 11. Forecast low temperatures for November 11 (11/6/2017 12z MOS ) included: Albany: 8° (Record: 15°) Bridgeport: 23° (Record: 22°) Danbury: 15° (Record: 14°) Islip: 23° (Record: 24°) New Haven: 22° (Record: 16°) New York City: …JFK: 24° (Record: 19°) …LGA: 26° (Record: 29°) …NYC: 24° (Record: 28°) Newark: 20° (Record: 25°) Poughkeepsie: 14° (Record: 13°) Westhampton: 16° (Record: 21°) White Plains: 17° (Record: 20°) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 The 12z Euro has a record low of 26 Saturday morning in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 12 hours ago, Eduardo said: Was wondering when we could expect your return, Paul. I understand it's only November 6th, but any December thoughts just yet? Great to have you back!! Colder and more active than the last 2. We should get off to a fast start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Some trees still have green leaves, wondering if this hard freeze will kill them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 If the 12z UKMET verified it would probably bring a period of wet snow to the interior late tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just your run of the mill AO drop to 4SD negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Fantom X said: Some trees still have green leaves, wondering if this hard freeze will kill them ummm yeah...24 degrees would do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Just your run of the mill AO drop to 4SD negative.... -NAO/-AO pattern sets up mid month. Look for a big storm the week prior to Thanksgiving as things begin to rebound. Until then it will probably be unseasonably cold and relatively boring around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Relief is coming! Cold front already passed NW Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Morris said: Relief is coming! Cold front already passed NW Jersey. Relief from lower 60's? It might be the last time we see widespread 60's for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Relief from lower 60's? It might be the last time we see widespread 60's for the foreseeable future. Yup! My ideal weather if it's not snowing is 43 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS is trending stronger with the -AO at 12z. 12z 0z Looks like a real negative -AO?. It's been a long since I seen something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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