November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

up or down?

The difference upstate is 60 degrees.   It is down from last run. 

[Morris]

GFS has our first freeze next Friday.

It only takes 850's of -14.

[psv88]

73 today, doesnt feel like November.

[Rtd208]

Another warm day. Current temp is 74 here.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Another warm day. Current temp is 74 here.

Should be about 25 to 30 degrees colder a week from now. Oh and also dark

[NJwx85]

I’m not buying a shift towards below normal temps next week. Highs for early November in the city should still be near 50. 

Instead I believed we see a gradual cool down followed by longer stretches of milder weather, sort of like how tomorrow will only be in the upper 50’s while Sunday and Monday should bring middle to upper 60’s, followed by another quick cool down.

It seems the ridge tries to rebuild, and then these fast moving Northern stream disturbances, almost clippers attempt to bring in a cold shot, only to be quickly shunted out. I suspect once the blocking regime re-establishes itself, the southeast ridge will win out.

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be about 25 to 30 degrees colder a week from now. Oh and also dark

We'll see about that, I'll happily take the over on temps next week.

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Dakota said:

Actually its 60 F; but who's counting...

Around December 1st; the normal high in NYC drops to about 50 F.

Oh okay, according to this website the average high in NYC for November is 54 degrees. My point is that I don’t expect a below average pattern (highs below 50) to settle in during the forseable future.

https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/new-york/united-states/3202

[NJwx85]

I haven’t needed to run my heat yet, that’s a plus. I’ve clicked it on a few times but I’ve ended up turning it back off in under 12 hours each time. In fact I think I’ve run my AC more times since mid September than my heat.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Well, it certainly is not something to get into a twist over and you know I never  belabor a point; but you did very specifically use the adjective early  November and per the OKX NWS page the normal high temperature for today, November 3rd (which is definitely early November) is 59 F at both LaGuardia & Newark Airports.  I wouldn't want Our Readers to be left with any potential misconceptions; and I am certain neither would you!

*Smiles Happily*

*Ooh...I'm at post 259...which is 1/3 of 777!

 

Well I have to give you that one. My guess wasn’t as accurate as I thought. Still, what’s a few degrees among friends?

[MJO812]

Maybe our first flakes next Friday ?

[WeatherFeen2000]

I don't know if you guys noticed but navgem has some snow for the area.

since putting a picture doesn't work here's the link

hr 114  navgem 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017110318&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=15

[tmagan]

Record low next Saturday is doable.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, tmagan said:

Record low next Saturday is doable.

Guarantee models trend warmer by then.

But if it stays that way then it's a very quick but potent cold shot. It's sort of how NYC went to below zero one day when the rest of that winter was very warm. 

[CIK62]

Could it happen soon?  A negative 8 day period?!  Next 8 days way down to average only 51degs., or just +1deg.

Like I pointed out yesterday, the GFS gets manic/depressive late in period.

[uncle W]

first and last freeze dates in Central Park...

season....first.freeze....last.freeze..

1876-77.......10/15.......4/08

1877-78.......11/07.......3/26

1878-79.......11/05.......4/06

1879-80.......10/25.......4/12

1880-81.......11/18.......4/07

1881-82.......11/22.......4/12

1882-83.......11/03.......4/03

1883-84.......11/12.......4/06

1884-85.......11/19.......4/14

1885-86.......11/01.......4/04

1886-87.......11/07.......4/19

1887-88.......10/30.......4/25

1888-89.......11/17.......3/31

1889-90.......10/24.......4/19

1890-91.......11/21.......5/06

1891-92.......11/04.......4/25

1892-93.......11/11.......3/30

1893-94.......11/15.......4/09

1894-95.......11/07.......4/05

1895-96.......11/12.......4/08

1896-97.......11/23.......4/20

1897-98.......11/18.......4/07

1898-99.......11/24.......4/06

1899-00.......11/12.......4/11

1900-01.......11/15.......3/31

1901-02.......11/10.......3/20

1902-03.......12/05.......4/05

1903-04.......11/07.......4/20

1904-05.......10/31.......3/15

1905-06.......11/14.......4/01

1906-07.......11/29.......4/03

1907-08.......12/03.......4/05

1908-09.......11/04.......4/11

1909-10.......11/30.......3/18

1910-11.......11/20.......4/03

1911-12.......11/03.......4/04

1912-13.......11/03.......3/28

1913-14.......11/11.......4/13

1914-15.......11/10.......4/04

1915-16.......11/18.......4/09

1916-17.......11/15.......4/10

1917-18.......10/31.......4/12

1918-19.......11/24.......4/26

1919-20.......11/14.......4/11

1920-21.......11/12.......4/11

1921-22.......11/06.......4/21

1922-23.......11/21.......4/14

1923-24.......11/09.......4/03

1924-25.......11/16.......4/21

1925-26.......10/29.......4/20

1926-27.......11/04.......3/28

1927-28.......11/07.......4/16

1928-29.......10/30.......3/18

1929-30.......11/22.......4/24

1930-31.......11/05.......3/14

1931-32.......11/07.......4/13

1932-33.......11/20.......3/25

1933-34.......10/26.......3/29

1934-35.......11/14.......4/16

1935-36.......11/23.......4/08

1936-37.......10/26.......3/31

1937-38.......11/21.......4/07

1938-39.......11/24.......4/13

1939-40.......11/13.......4/15

1940-41.......10/19.......3/31

1941-42.......11/25.......2/28

1942-43.......11/13.......4/16

1943-44.......11/15.......4/06

1944-45.......11/23.......3/11

1945-46.......11/21.......3/12

1946-47.......11/23.......3/31

1947-48.......11/19.......4/04

1948-49.......12/11.......3/20

1949-50.......11/22.......4/14

1950-51.......11/16.......3/27

1951-52.......11/03.......3/17

1952-53.......11/29.......3/11

1953-54.......11/06.......4/04

1954-55.......11/10.......3/29

1955-56.......11/19.......3/28

1956-57.......11/10.......3/25

1957-58.......11/11.......4/09

1958-59.......11/28.......3/29

1959-60.......11/17.......3/27

1960-61.......11/07.......3/21

1961-62.......11/10.......3/09

1962-63.......11/07.......3/23

1963-64.......12/01.......4/05

1964-65.......11/21.......4/01

1965-66.......10/29.......3/29

1966-67.......11/04.......4/12

1967-68.......11/08.......4/06

1968-69.......11/21.......4/01

1969-70.......10/23.......4/11

1970-71.......11/23.......3/27

1971-72.......11/08.......4/09

1972-73.......10/20.......3/21

1973-74.......11/10.......4/10

1974-75.......10/19.......4/10

1975-76.......10/31.......4/12

1976-77.......10/27.......4/10

1977-78.......11/14.......4/03

1978-79.......11/25.......4/08

1979-80.......11/30.......4/17

1980-81.......11/16.......3/21

1981-82.......11/25.......4/08

1982-83.......11/13.......3/30

1983-84.......11/13.......3/18

1984-85.......11/19.......4/10

1985-86.......12/02.......3/22

1986-87.......11/13.......4/01

1987-88.......11/11.......3/23

1988-89.......10/31.......3/22

1989-90.......11/18.......3/28

1990-91.......11/09.......4/13

1991-92.......11/26.......4/13

1992-93.......11/08.......3/20

1993-94.......11/21.......3/19

1994-95.......11/23.......4/06

1995-96.......11/09.......3/29

1996-97.......11/12.......4/10

1997-98.......11/13.......3/23

1998-99.......12/22.......3/16

1999-00.......11/30.......4/09

2000-01.......11/20.......3/28

2001-02.......12/16.......4/07

2002-03.......11/27.......4/08

2003-04.......11/09.......4/06

2004-05.......11/09.......3/16

2005-06.......11/18.......3/22

2006-07.......12/04.......4/09

2007-08.......11/11.......3/30

2008-09.......11/18.......3/24

2009-10.......12/07.......3/27

2010-11.......12/04.......3/29

2011-12.......12/10.......3/27

2012-13.......11/06.......3/23

2013-14.......11/12.......4/16

2014-15.......11/18.......4/01

2015-16.......11/24.......4/10

2016-17.......12/09.......3/23

NYC's latest 1st 32 day since 1876...

1998...12/22

2001...12/16

1948...12/11

2011...12/10

2016...12/09

2009...12/07

1902...12/05

2010...12/04

2006...12/04

1907...12/03

1985...12/02

1963...12/01

[snywx]

37° temp swing. 70° for a high, 33° for a low this morning

[SnowDemon]

17 minutes ago, snywx said:

37° temp swing. 70° for a high, 33° for a low this morning

Definitely felt the shift as the sun was setting and winds picked up. 

[IrishRob17]

18 minutes ago, snywx said:

37° temp swing. 70° for a high, 33° for a low this morning

Same swing here but 71 for the high yesterday and 34 for the low this morning. 

[donsutherland1]

Despite the change to cooler weather after yesterday's unseasonable warmth, the Monarch migration continues. A photo from this morning when the temperature was 49° is below. The last time I saw Monarchs in November was in 2015.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models really struggling with this pattern as the 12z GFS lost the brief cool down for next weekend in just 1 run. The UKMET backed off also.

 

 

 

No surprise there, there's really nothing that favors any extended BN period, even the -EPO isnt doing much. 

12z gfs actually shows no BN days.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models really struggling with this pattern as the 12z GFS lost the brief cool down for next weekend in just 1 run. The UKMET backed off also.

 

 

 

The trend continues, it’s been a common theme all fall. Everytime the models have shown a cool down since September 1st, they back down and it turns out either not happening or becomes just a turn down to normal temps. The warmth keeps overperforming and the cool downs keep underperforming

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

No surprise there, there's really nothing that favors any extended BN period, even the -EPO isnt doing much. 

12z gfs actually shows no BN days.

With the GEFS and EPS still favoring a cold shot, the 12z GFS may be an outlier. 

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

No surprise there, there's really nothing that favors any extended BN period, even the -EPO isnt doing much. 

12z gfs actually shows no BN days.

No one said extended. please dont be disingenuous. We have enough of that here

[WeatherFeen2000]

Did anyone see the Canadian gives us a snowstorm next Tuesday lol something to track though.

[Isotherm]

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

 

 

Gorgeous fall scenes.

[Isotherm]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Gorgeous fall scenes.

Thanks Don. Color not nearly as lurid as the past couple of years, but if you search for the right places, there are some beautiful spots still. We're probably about 90% changed at this point; peak probably occurring within a day or two, about a week behind schedule.

[the_other_guy]

What the heck is going on with models for Friday? Never saw a one day temperature forecast go down then up 15 degrees in a 24 hour period 6 days out.

[WeatherFeen2000]

jfklganyc   

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ID: 128   Posted 24 minutes ago · 

What the heck is going on with models for Friday? Never saw a one day temperature forecast go down then up 15 degrees in a 24 hour period 6 days out.

 Like this

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Remember 120 hrs is a long ways from now on in meteorological terms