November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[EasternLI]

About a week ago, I mentioned this as a possibility as per HM's research. Pretty cool to see the man behind the work bringing it up now.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

10 hours ago, PB GFI said:

The talent on this board lessens every year and posts like this are what makes people's eyes water after reading something so hideous 

There is not 1 piece of guidance that doesn't transition this pattern in the 7 to 10

The rest of this is just jibberish , devoid of fact based guidance

And yet I see another Euro run with record blocking and yet we still torch 10 days out. 

The pattern does transition I'm not arguing that, but the outcome is still negative.

FYI don't take my posts so seriously. I'm already on board a wintry, BN second half of December. Guidance and teleconnections clearly point that out. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 47degs., or a solid 5degs. AN.

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And yet I see another Euro run with record blocking and yet we still torch 10 days out. 

The pattern does transition I'm not arguing that, but the outcome is still negative.

FYI don't take my posts so seriously. I'm already on board a wintry, BN second half of December. Guidance and teleconnections clearly point that out. 

Didn't you only predict 5" for the whole winter? 

[PB GFI]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And yet I see another Euro run with record blocking and yet we still torch 10 days out. 

The pattern does transition I'm not arguing that, but the outcome is still negative.

FYI don't take my posts so seriously. I'm already on board a wintry, BN second half of December. Guidance and teleconnections clearly point that out. 

The EPS and GEFS show the trough back by day 10 don't look at an OP run 

There's nothing but BN temps showing up on the guidance after that.

 

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The EPS and GEFS show the trough back by day 10 don't look at an OP run 

There's nothing but BN temps showing up on the guidance after that.

 

I never look past day 7 or so, 10 to 15 day guidance verification is no better than a coin flip.  This week is another zzzzzz, I'll check again next Sunday but I'm not expecting much the following week either.  

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

I never look past day 7 or so, 10 to 15 day guidance verification is no better than a coin flip.  This week is another zzzzzz, I'll check again next Sunday but I'm not expecting much the following week either.  

The next 10 days are a zzzzzz.

But he's missing the effects on blocking.

The next 5 to 7 days look to  Slightly AN with nothing but ridging at 18k feet .

Without blocking that 500 over the 7 days should be plus 10 , but blocking helps mute the real plains heat.

Most automated #s are very 50/39 ish , so the last 4 days of November aren't torching like that ridge should produce.

So once the MJO is out of 5 and the reaction is to force a trough in the east by day 10 what does he think that blocking should yield ? 

I agree the next 10 days are nothing more than an opportunity to get some rest for what should happened after the 8th

[Brian5671]

Let’s hope the day 10 pattern verifies.  Seems that we’ve seen modeled promising patterns going back to early to mid November that have not moved up in time.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Let’s hope the day 10 pattern verifies.  Seems that we’ve seen modeled promising patterns going back to early to mid November that have not moved up in time.  

It also has implications down the road. If this doesn’t come to fruition I would start to worry about a 11/12 type of winter. One where that great pattern is always at the end of the runs. 

I still think we have a great/good winter. I still like my 40” for the Park.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It also has implications down the road. If this doesn’t come to fruition I would start to worry about a 11/12 type of winter. One where that great pattern is always at the end of the runs. 

I still think we have a great/good winter. I still like my 40” for the Park.

it's also early.   People often rush it-the odds of an accumulating snowfall in November are slim.    The good news is that we've had some cold, so I think a ratter like 11-12 is unlikely.  If you remember that winter (and other ratters like 01-02) it was endless warmth with little to no storms at all.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's also early.   People often rush it-the odds of an accumulating snowfall in November are slim.    The good news is that we've had some cold, so I think a ratter like 11-12 is unlikely.  If you remember that winter (and other ratters like 01-02) it was endless warmth with little to no storms at all.

It was right around this time back in November, 2011 that the huge Bering Sea/AK vortex showed up and that was the beginning of the end for that winter. That pattern became semi-permanent and just locked in for the following 5 months. I doubt we have to worry about such a scenario happening this time around, I think the threat is a very dry winter, not a very warm one IMO

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Let’s hope the day 10 pattern verifies.  Seems that we’ve seen modeled promising patterns going back to early to mid November that have not moved up in time.  

 

When ?

Then how did we just manage a 14 day period of - 5 ? 

 

 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

When ?

Then how did we just manage a 14 day period of - 5 ? 

 

 

Colder yes, but no storms of note.   No one cares about the cold, it's the snow that's remembered.   Granted Nov accumulating snows are rare and I don't think many were really expecting much.

[BxEngine]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Colder yes, but no storms of note.   No one cares about the cold, it's the snow that's remembered.   Granted Nov accumulating snows are rare and I don't think many were really expecting much.

If no one was expecting much, what pattern didnt materialize? Lol

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

If no one was expecting much, what pattern didnt materialize? Lol

my point was in reality.    People throw out phrases like "november to remember", "Nov/December 1989" and "epic" but deep down I think they know anything like that is rarified territory.

[PB GFI]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Colder yes, but no storms of note.   No one cares about the cold, it's the snow that's remembered.   Granted Nov accumulating snows are rare and I don't think many were really expecting much.

Wait what ? 

This coming from the guy who only cares about temps when  he types torch.

you posted day 10 s keep changing when referencing the anomalies at 500 mbs and I asked you when 

It doesn't snow in November and  the forecast was for BN when everyone was yelling plus 3 to 5

The fact is from the 6th , many of us said that looking at that  500 it would turn us colder and you saw 14 days of - 5 and set off a BN month when the 1st few pages were awash with warm talk.

Your post about the 500mbs change was a troll post and you didn't support your argument with any failures at 500 in November 

 

[SnowGoose69]

6 hours ago, PB GFI said:

The EPS and GEFS show the trough back by day 10 don't look at an OP run 

There's nothing but BN temps showing up on the guidance after that.

 

The Op Euro run last night was a classic over bury the disturbance into the southwest around 160 hours which ultimately caused the remainder of the 00 Op run to probably be wrong.  I would think it's another 2-3 days til we see the Op Euro progress that disturbance more vs dropping into the southwest 

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op Euro run last night was a classic over bury the disturbance into the southwest around 160 hours which ultimately caused the remainder of the 00 Op run to probably be wrong.  I would think it's another 2-3 days til we see the Op Euro progress that disturbance more vs dropping into the southwest 

I think we will have to anchor the ridging all the way around by day 9 then look for something a week after ?

I always think the onset of the pattern is cold and dry but it's when it relaxes or releases I look for the backside to produce 

It does amaze me in here , if its warm it's page after page of ritualistic crying 

When it's cold , it's hey there's no snow so temps / busted forecasts don't matter 

All the ensembles show the trough digging back in around day 9 and deepening , lets see if we could make another run at a 10 day BN period 

Again ,  any snow should be tackled inside 5 days 

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Wait what ? 

This coming from the guy who only cares about temps when  he types torch.

you posted day 10 s keep changing when referencing the anomalies at 500 mbs and I asked you when 

It doesn't snow in November and  the forecast was for BN when everyone was yelling plus 3 to 5

The fact is from the 6th , many of us said that looking at that  500 it would turn us colder and you saw 14 days of - 5 and set off a BN month when the 1st few pages were awash with warm talk.

Your post about the 500mbs change was a troll post and you didn't support your argument with any failures at 500 in November 

 

slow down bud...no I am not saying the cold didn't come. I posted earlier in November that I was definitely buying it...   I'm saying it was by no means an epic pattern.  Notable and quite the reversal, yes.... Big difference.  Am i excited about the long run?  Absolutely.  Early blocking is a great sign....if you remember last year the blocking disappears after October and we had to deal with a torched Canada most of the winter-never a good sign... Not sure what you are talking about with regard to 500 MB-show me that post please... Chill.

[PB GFI]

On 11/26/2017 at 11:57 AM, SnoSki14 said:

We over performed the past few days, I definitely think we could set some records and take the month right to 0 or even a bit above.

Things look incredibly mild and dry for the next two weeks (+8-10) courtesy of a raging Pacific jet. Very hideous pattern moving forward as strong blocking favors a cold dump over Europe than us. 

Just look at the 12z gfs, no sign of a colder pattern. Just because blocking is present doesn't mean we benefit, the other side of the world does this time.

The Pacific pattern is garbage for us.

Your forecast for the next 2 week's of + 8 to 10 looks  to be off by about oh 8 to 10.

Like I said yesterday ,  this is just 1 crazy post 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

PB is triggered today, running around all the boards claiming there are masses of people shouting torch, when in reality, its mainly in his head. And i agree, nobody cares about cold, its the same song and dance every year, and it gets old and tiresome. For such a tough guy, PB sure gets baited easily by a few trolls. 

Yes, who's yelling torch?  Even Snowman19 isn't touting the torch....

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Yes, who's yelling torch?  Even Snowman19 isn't touting the torch....

I just responded to a post in here that forecasted the next 2 weeks to be plus 8 to 10.

You miss that one ? 

[Brian5671]

Speaking of torches....This fall will rank Top 5 for warmth.   The last 3 falls (including this one) fall into the top 5 for warmth.  That's noteworthy.   Amazing this one held rank given the cold of the last 2 weeks or so.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I just responded to a post in here that forecasted the next 2 weeks to be plus 8 to 10.

You miss that one ? 

yeah there might be one or two people yelling torch, (and no I'm not one of them!)  but I think the consensus is for a cold period upcoming.   Hell there's always a few dissenters no matter the pattern...think back to 11-12 some were still calling for cold and snow while we were all wearing shorts....who knows, the models could flip in a day or two and they'd be right...you just never know...that's why we debate here 25 hours a day...LOL

[Paragon]

11 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I never look past day 7 or so, 10 to 15 day guidance verification is no better than a coin flip.  This week is another zzzzzz, I'll check again next Sunday but I'm not expecting much the following week either.  

Models often have a problem with the transition periods, about exactly when the pattern flip will occur and how long it will last.

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

my point was in reality.    People throw out phrases like "november to remember", "Nov/December 1989" and "epic" but deep down I think they know anything like that is rarified territory.

haha people would be jumping off bridges if 1989-90 repeated.

[Paragon]

Any idea how close we are to setting the new record for the biggest one month drop off in average temps?  Previous record was December 2015 to January 2016.  Let's see how close we get to setting the new record with the average temp drop between October 2017 and November 2017.

 

 

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, Paragon said:

 

 

35 minutes ago, Paragon said:

haha people would be jumping off bridges if 1989-90 repeated.

Not sure what’s worse the cold dry month or what followed in January-March.   

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 

Not sure what’s worse the cold dry month or what followed in January-March.   

That was a really bad month (December 1989) because it was a huge tease.

We were supposed to get a big snowstorm (predicted 8 inches which was big for back then), and as soon as it started snowing, I heard a clap of thunder and saw lightning and it changed right over to rain......... What made it even worse was that the previous winter we had another 8 inch bust when it was predicted we'd get 8 inches of snow in February 1989 and all we got was 8 inches of virga- while Atlantic City got 20 inches!  It was overcast all day and felt like it would snow but we never got a flake.

The other "events" were very minor 1-2 inch events that occurred once a week or so.  Oh, the 1-2 inches were mostly on the south shore, NYC got like T-0.5 inch in those "events" in December 1989.

 

[sferic]

7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That was a really bad month (December 1989) because it was a huge tease.

We were supposed to get a big snowstorm (predicted 8 inches which was big for back then), and as soon as it started snowing, I heard a clap of thunder and saw lightning and it changed right over to rain......... What made it even worse was that the previous winter we had another 8 inch bust when it was predicted we'd get 8 inches of snow in February 1989 and all we got was 8 inches of virga- while Atlantic City got 20 inches!  It was overcast all day and felt like it would snow but we never got a flake.

The other "events" were very minor 1-2 inch events that occurred once a week or so.  Oh, the 1-2 inches were mostly on the south shore, NYC got like T-0.5 inch in those "events" in December 1989.

 

But like you know every day in December 1989 had a low of 32 or lower...has that ever happened for NYC ever ?