November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[NJwx85]

19 hours ago, danstorm said:

Revisionist history.

1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average.  Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above.

2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes.  In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal.  NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below.  And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month.  You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month.  Not happening, not even close.

3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.

You took everything I said completely out of context per the usual. I called for a dry and cold period mid November followed by a flip to more milder conditions. Most of next week should be above normal. Perhaps 3-5 above was a bit over zealous, but that call was made before the flip to the colder weather occurred. It had been mild to that point and I didn’t envision that early November would be as cold as it ended up being. 

I was more correct about no big storms occurring during the week of Thanksgiving when several posters on here were going nuts over the blocking signal. I stated that the fast Pacific flow would ruin our chances for snow, and it did.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 50degs., or 8degs. AN.

[gravitylover]

12 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I have to add that just a few miles north of the city we have had several nights below freezing outside of that cold patch...there are no flowers, no green grass and no insects buzzing around.

Heck, we were below freezing this morning.

I just think that people viewing the forum from afar should have the correct picture of what is going on in the metro area.

 

There's lots of green grass and over the last two days there was both a gnat and mosquito hatch. There is a fair amount of new growth of leafy greens in the forest too. All this with mornings at 20-23* but daytime temps have been above 50 for the last two days.

 

[PB GFI]

11 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

You took everything I said completely out of context per the usual. I called for a dry and cold period mid November followed by a flip to more milder conditions. Most of next week should be above normal. Perhaps 3-5 above was a bit over zealous, but that call was made before the flip to the colder weather occurred. It had been mild to that point and I didn’t envision that early November would be as cold as it ended up being. 

I was more correct about no big storms occurring during the week of Thanksgiving when several posters on here were going nuts over the blocking signal. I stated that the fast Pacific flow would ruin our chances for snow, and it did.

 

Your forecast was plus 3 to 5 and so far the 1st 25 days are minus 2, and you were just over zealous? 

You called for a few cold days in November ,  the last 20 days in NYC are -3.

No one called for a big storm the post from the 9th , 15 days out  , November would finish BN ( the 1st 7 days were well AN ) and watch around Thanksgiving for something on the E / C and the day prior to Thanksgiving a phase was just missed on the EC ,  it rained in NYC and snowed in NE.

Both of those in the face of what just occurred and 15 days away were VG. 

Missing the month by 5 degrees is a more than just excitement my man.When you forecast a warm month and it's cold the dry aspect is a consolation prize I wouldn't look for.

The day 1- 6  GEFS and EPS  for the week are N at 2 M, so there is no big warm up is occurring at all.

So it's N and not mild.

You guys see some red at 18k feet that must denote warm , look at the surface.

Now I see where you are AN for December ,  you told me nothing supports BN , In my humble opinion I think you should rethink that one.

 

 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

Your forecast was plus 3 to 5 and so far the 1st 25 days are minus 2, and you were just over zealous? 

You called for a few cold days in November ,  the last 20 days in NYC are -3.

No one called for a big storm the post from the 9th , 15 days out  , November would finish BN ( the 1st 7 days were well AN ) and watch around Thanksgiving for something on the E / C and the day prior to Thanksgiving a phase was just missed on the EC ,  it rained in NYC and snowed in NE.

Both of those in the face of what just occurred and 15 days away were VG. 

Missing the month by 5 degrees is a more than just excitement my man.When you forecast a warm month and it's cold the dry aspect is a consolation prize I wouldn't look for.

The day 1- 6  GEFS and EPS  for the week are N at 2 M, so there is no big warm up is occurring at all.

So it's N and not mild.

You guys see some red at 18k feet that must denote warm , look at the surface.

Now I see where you are AN for December ,  you told me nothing supports BN , In my humble opinion I think you should rethink that one.

 

 

I never said anything close to that, but whatever.

[bluewave]

This November is much like December 2013 where a few days are determining the monthly departure. The cold departure this November is largely a result of the record cold earlier in the month. The warm departure in December 2013 was caused by the record warmth right before Christmas.

[PB GFI]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This November is much like December 2013 where a few days are determining the monthly departure. The cold departure this November is largely a result of the record cold earlier in the month. The warm departure in December 2013 was caused by the record warmth right before Christmas.

I disagree with this , November 1 - 6 was plus 6 at KNYC,  what determined this month was the duration of the BN anomalies 

From Nov 7 - 24 at KNYC they are - 5

-5

-6

-3

-12

-18

-10

-6

-6

-4

+2

-4

+4

-8

-2

that's a pretty good 14 day stretch which constituted 2/3 rd of the actual month so far and in the end represent an entire 2 weeks of the anomalies.

 

[PB GFI]

Dec 2016 was a one week debacle that twisted the month 

We were -3 by Dec 22nd ( I was cruising ) and ended up plus 2.

I remember because I forecasted BN for the month and a week of plus 12 blew up the forecast.

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I disagree with this , November 1 - 6 was plus 6 at KNYC,  what determined this month was the duration of the BN anomalies 

From Nov 7 - 24 at KNYC they are - 5

-5

-6

-3

-12

-18

-10

-6

-6

-4

+2

-4

+4

-8

-2

that's a pretty good 14 day stretch which constituted 2/3 rd of the actual month so far and in the end represent an entire 2 weeks of the anomalies.

 

Strip out the 3 really cold days and the month finishes N with the 50's coming up this week. We are at -0.3 without the 3 coldest days. That would come back to N with the milder temps to close out the month.

 

[PB GFI]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strip out the 3 really cold days and the month finishes N with the 50's coming up this week. We are at -0.3 without the 3 coldest days. That would come back to N with the milder temps to close out the month.

 

Then can I strip out weeks 1 plus 13 and plus 11 ?

There are 8 days of at least -5 , the month will finish BN and there was a 2 week period that averaged 5 below.

we just can't strip out 2 very cold days brother.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Then can I strip out weeks 1 plus 8 plus 12 and plus 10 ?

There are 8 days of at least -5 , the month will finish BN and there was a 2 week period that averaged 5 below.

we just can't strip out 2 very cold days brother.

Did you even read my original post above of how a few extreme days can flip a monthly departure? See December 2013. Strip out the 70 degrees before Christmas and the month was cold. Just making a point that sometimes a few days of extremes don't represent the overall flavor of the month.

[PB GFI]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Did you even read my original post above of how a few extreme days can flip a monthly departure? See December 2013.

I responded that Dec 2016 fit's that better than November 2017 IMO

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I responded that Dec 2016 fit's that better than November 2017

Outside of the record cold, this was one of the dullest Novembers for weather around here in a while. 

[PB GFI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Outside of the record cold, this was one of the dullest Novembers for weather around here in a while. 

Many Novembers are. The argument was not about this being active it was against that we were in for another torch.

Reading pages 1 thru 6 in here you will see the opinions were clear.

So now its onto Dec where I think it's BN once again but this time not so boring.

[SACRUS]

Dep thru 11/25

NYC: -1.7
EWR: -1.4
LGA: -1.1
JFK: -2.2
ISP: +0.1
TTN: -1.6
PHL: -1.0

 

[SACRUS]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Outside of the record cold, this was one of the dullest Novembers for weather around here in a while. 

That sudden turn from the record warmth to the cold was the highlight but overall this will be close to normal and very dry.  If it wasnt for the deluge in late Oct we'd be in record dry autumn territory. The 2007 record oct to cold nov looked good but this warmup will make 2017 much warmer overall.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

That sudden turn from the record warmth to the cold was the highlight but overall this will be close to normal and very dry.  If it wasnt for the deluge in late Oct we'd be in record dry autumn territory. The 2007 record oct to cold nov looked good but this warmup will make 2017 much warmer overall.

Warm departure Octobers turning colder in November is standard La Nina climo. But the dramatic swings we have seen this fall are a reflection of the more extreme regime of the 2010's. The record November cold was a first following the record October warmth.

[SACRUS]

I think we will outperform guidance this week but fall a few degrees short of records on Wed 11/29. Mayabe some 65/66 readings.

 

11/29:

NYC:  69 (1990)
EWR:  70 (1990)
LGA: 69  (1990)
JFK: 64 (1991)
TTN: 70 (1990) 

 

[CIK62]

November should still finish about  0.60degs, BN and become only the sixth month out of the last 32 months to do so[NYC]----and four of those six months are less than 1 degree BN.

If December comes in AN, I would view November as another atmospheric accident.    The best run in the last 32 months was the springtime of 2016, when we hovered just above normal for all three months.

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

November should still finish about  0.60degs, BN and become only the sixth month out of the last 32 months to do so[NYC]----and four of those six months are less than 1 degree BN.

If December comes in AN, I would view November as another atmospheric accident.    The best run in the last 32 months was the springtime of 2016, when we hovered just above normal for all three months.

Anything +/- 1.00* is normal in my book. No month will ever be 0.00. This month will end up normal. Other than maybe islip which could end up more than +1

[PB GFI]

Plus 1 is AN

Minus 1 is BN

The latest satellite data says the globe is currently running +.25 AN and NOAA says the globe is running  +.6 AN

I have not read any AGW literature that would consider the world's temps are running just N.

NYC should end up - 1 

 

[uncle W]

23 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Plus 1 is AN

Minus 1 is BN

The latest satellite data says the globe is currently running +.25 AN and NOAA says the globe is running  +.6 AN

I have not read any AGW literature that would consider the world's temps are running just N.

NYC should end up - 1 

 

noaa has a mean temperature for NYC in November of 47.7 for the 1981-2010 period...the 1981-2010 monthly average was 48.0...the 2010's is 48.1 so far...as of yesterday the average was 46.6...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

I think we will outperform guidance this week but fall a few degrees short of records on Wed 11/29. Mayabe some 65/66 readings.

 

11/29:

NYC:  69 (1990)
EWR:  70 (1990)
LGA: 69  (1990)
JFK: 64 (1991)
TTN: 70 (1990) 

 

We over performed the past few days, I definitely think we could set some records and take the month right to 0 or even a bit above.

Things look incredibly mild and dry for the next two weeks (+8-10) courtesy of a raging Pacific jet. Very hideous pattern moving forward as strong blocking favors a cold dump over Europe than us. 

Just look at the 12z gfs, no sign of a colder pattern. Just because blocking is present doesn't mean we benefit, the other side of the world does this time.

The Pacific pattern is garbage for us.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

noaa has a mean temperature for NYC in November of 47.7 for the 1981-2010 period...the 1981-2010 monthly average was 48.0...the 2010's is 48.1 so far...as of yesterday the average was 46.6...

November is the only month of the year not to see a top 10 coldest in NYC since 1901. But 1976 almost made it. 

[swamplover56]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We over performed the past few days, I definitely think we could set some records and take the month right to 0 or even a bit above.

Things look incredibly mild and dry for the next two weeks (+8-10) courtesy of a raging Pacific jet. Very hideous pattern moving forward as strong blocking favors a cold dump over Europe than us. 

Just look at the 12z gfs, no sign of a colder pattern. Just because blocking is present doesn't mean we benefit, the other side of the world does this time.

The Pacific pattern is garbage for us.

And again the pacific is not really forecast to be better for two weeks. All the ensembles are showing a beautiful trough in the east with a -nao -ao beginning dec 7 th or so not quite sure what your harping on the post turkey day warmup was well modeled on all guidance

[Neblizzard]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We over performed the past few days, I definitely think we could set some records and take the month right to 0 or even a bit above.

Things look incredibly mild and dry for the next two weeks (+8-10) courtesy of a raging Pacific jet. Very hideous pattern moving forward as strong blocking favors a cold dump over Europe than us. 

Just look at the 12z gfs, no sign of a colder pattern. Just because blocking is present doesn't mean we benefit, the other side of the world does this time.

The Pacific pattern is garbage for us.

What are you talking about ? The ensembles shift to a much colder regime after Dec 8th.  Read the models 

[bluewave]

I guess that some people consider -0.5 to +0.5 closer to normal for a monthly temperature departure. It's generally when departures go below  or above those levels that the average person may begin to take notice. Top 10 warmth or cold in either direction really gets peoples attention.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess that some people consider -0.5 to +0.5 closer to normal for a monthly temperature departure. It's generally when departures go below  or above those levels that the average person may begin to take notice. Top 10 warmth or cold in either direction really gets peoples attention.

We also saw only one warm spell to start the month and a cool down mid month, but 20 out of 30 days will end up within 5 degrees of average.

[uncle W]

here are some years that had some very mild days during the first 10 days in December and then had an abrupt turn to cold or snowy as the month went on...some periods were short like in 1982 and some long like in 1962...there have been years with a warm start to December and it stayed that way most of the month...2006, 2001 and 1998 come to mind...

12/06/1912.....64 degrees.....max/min of 19/29 on the 13th...11.4" of snow on the 24th...

12/03/1914.....64 degrees.....max/min of 3/15 on the 26th...10 degrees on the 15th...

12/05/1916.....63 degrees.....12.7" of snow on the 15th...17 degrees on the 16th...

12/07/1932.....63 degrees.....+ 50 1 thru 8th...2.4" 11-12th...7.2" 17-18th...max/min 11/20 on the 17th...

12/08/1951.....64 degrees.....+ 50 1-9th...+ 60 3-8th...3.3" snow 14th-15th...max/min of 8/20 on the 17th...

12/06/1960.....64 degrees.....15.3" of snow on the 11-12th...max/min of 8/20 on the 13th...

12/01/1962.....68 degrees.....below freezing highs 10-16th...max/min of 13/23 on the 13th...

12/09/1966.....66 degrees.....+ 60 8-11th...wet snow 13-14th...7.1" snow 24th-25th...

12/02/1968.....60 degrees.....5" of snow on the 15th...max/min of 9/24 on the 10th...

12/03/1970.....64 degrees.....ice on the 11th.....max/min of 17/35 on the 8th...

12/04/1973.....66 degrees.....3" snow and ice on the 16-17th...17 degrees on the 17th...

12/08/1980.....64 degrees.....1" snow on the 15th...max/min of -1/20 on the 25th...

12/04/1982.....+ 50 1-8...3" of snow on the 12th...17 degrees on the 13th...

12/15/2008.....67 degrees.....1" snow on the 16th...4" snow on the 19th...max/min of 13/27 on the 22nd...

12/03/2009.....66 degrees.....10.9" of snow on the 19-20th...max/min of 29/21 on the 11th...

 

[PB GFI]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We over performed the past few days, I definitely think we could set some records and take the month right to 0 or even a bit above.

Things look incredibly mild and dry for the next two weeks (+8-10) courtesy of a raging Pacific jet. Very hideous pattern moving forward as strong blocking favors a cold dump over Europe than us. 

Just look at the 12z gfs, no sign of a colder pattern. Just because blocking is present doesn't mean we benefit, the other side of the world does this time.

The Pacific pattern is garbage for us.

The talent on this board lessens every year and posts like this are what makes people's eyes water after reading something so hideous 

There is not 1 piece of guidance that doesn't transition this pattern in the 7 to 10

The rest of this is just jibberish , devoid of fact based guidance