November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Bluewave, Out of curiosity, which La Niña years had drier than normal November’s? And what was the total snowfalls for those winters? This November is likely to finish much drier than normal, we are way behind our normal precip to this point....

This is certainly among the driest of La Nina Novembers going back to 1950 for NYC. You can see how the fast Pacific Jet has been dropping most of the precip along the West Coast and Great Lakes. Not much correlation between November precip in NYC and winter snowfall during a La Nina. 2010 and 1998 were both dry but had much different winter snowfall outcomes. 1988 and 1995 were both wet and had a big winter snowfall divergence.

 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is certainly among the driest of La Nina Novembers going back to 1950 for NYC. You can see how the fast Pacific Jet has been dropping most of the precip along the West Coast and Great Lakes. Not much correlation between November precip in NYC and winter snowfall during a La Nina. 2010 and 1998 were both dry but had much different winter snowfall outcomes. 1988 and 1995 were both wet and had a big winter snowfall divergence.

 

Wow. We really have been dry as a bone this entire month, way below normal. Thanks 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Wow. We really have been dry as a bone this entire month, way below normal. Thanks 

That fast flow coming across the US has really shut down any coastal storm activity.

[Ralph Wiggum]

November will finish BN and people need to keep it mind  whenever any snow falls at 40N in November that's anomalous.

November is a fall month but the reversal from October in the northern tier through our area was seen by some here.

Most thought November would just be an extention of a very warm October and those ideas failed.

Now as we look into December and the newly corrected MJO today as it mutes the warm phases so that by the 5th a good pattern could emerge.

We are looking at high lattitude blocking to enter the month and could rule the forecast period.

December looks be BN.

I like the look of the Dec 5-10 period for some frozen activity potential in the LR. The models are sniffing something in the medium range though around D+6 but cold air seems lacking right now on those looks. Guess one at a time is the rule for now.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 48degs., 5degs. or 6degs. AN.

Wow what a furnace, CFS correct?

[PB GFI]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12 hours ago, PB GFI said:

November will finish BN and people need to keep it mind  whenever any snow falls at 40N in November that's anomalous.

November is a fall month but the reversal from October in the northern tier through our area was seen by some here.

Most thought November would just be an extention of a very warm October and those ideas failed.

Now as we look into December and the newly corrected MJO today as it mutes the warm phases so that by the 5th a good pattern could emerge.

We are looking at high lattitude blocking to enter the month and could rule the forecast period.

December looks be BN.
 

I like the look of the Dec 5-10 period for some frozen activity potential in the LR. The models are sniffing something in the medium range though around D+6 but cold air seems lacking right now on those looks. Guess one at a time is the rule for now.

Ralph , I think I am going to just keep forecasting the pattern rather than any individual events until they are inside 5 days , the models just aren't good enough beyond that.

I think if you set the pattern the rest will / should follow.

You can already see the LR guidance not warming the EC at 2 M even though the MJO runs into the warm phases because there's just too much blocking.

So you are close to N instead.

I like the look after day 12 , but I would like to see MJO stay closer to the null phase once past phase 4.

I like December as far as having the pieces in place for a BN month  , but it doesn't mean it has to snow , it just gives us an opportunity to be on the right side of the barroclinic zone and thats all anyone can ask for.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wow what a furnace, CFS correct?

Next 2 weeks generally taking steps (on avg) from BN to N to AN in terms of temps. I really dislike going out past D+10 but has anyone seen the weeklies as we approach weeks 2-3 of December? Textbook epo look with high lat blocking dumping cold air into the US. Great look BUT will it verify? Maybe the Dec 5-10 period Im looking at for a storm activity is our longwave transition to sustained BN with our first widespread frozen threat closer to mid-month. Seems like a realistic progression but again....good advertising in the LR longwave pattern doesnt always equate to reality. Hopeful anyway.

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow what a furnace, CFS correct?

I pretty sure his posts are always based on CFS. 

 

Just an observation, they have not been accurate outside a week or two.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow what a furnace, CFS correct?

CFS has now Jan,Feb and March cold

Not a good model

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ralph , I think I am going to just keep forecasting the pattern rather than any individual events until they are inside 5 days , the models just aren't good enough beyond that.

 

I think if you set the pattern the rest will / should follow.

 

You can already see the LR guidance not warming the EC at 2 M even though the MJO runs into the warm phases because there's just too much blocking.

 

So you are close to N instead.

 

I like the look after day 12 , but I would like to see MJO stay closer to the null phase once past phase 4.

 

I like December as far as having the pieces in place for a BN month  , but it doesn't mean it has to snow , it just gives us an opportunity to be on the right side of the barroclinic zone and thats all anyone can ask for.

 

 

 

Doesnt the MJO show a colder 8-1 phase after the first week of Dec? I dont have access attm. You may be right as far being closer to N but blocking configuration and strength has been bouncing around on guidance. I could easily see the AN stuff for a brief period as the pattern resets itself.

 

Eta: i usually and generally agree with not focusing on periods of potential events but the storm track has been so inactive and boring Im just noting ranges of transition.

[bluewave]

The guidance is showing a milder MJO 3-5 pattern here into the first week of December. Around the 7th, it begins to shift into the colder Phase 6 for the second week of December.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WEATHERBUFF]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow what a furnace, CFS correct?

Has a poor track record.

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The guidance is showing a milder MJO 3-5 pattern here into the first week of December. Around the 7th, it begins to shift into the colder Phase 6 for the second week of December.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree, phase 6 in la nina isn't a warm look. I'm more hopeful that the MJO takes a similar progression to the previous event, traversing through phase 7. That could act to reinforce the NAO, further down the road. All in all, I don't hate what we're looking at attm. We just need climo to get on our side (not there yet), so we wait.

 

[PB GFI]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The guidance is showing a milder MJO 3-5 pattern here into the first week of December. Around the 7th, it begins to shift into the colder Phase 6 for the second week of December.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeh ,we want to get past  phase 5 and with such little amplitude I think the ridge at 500 is plus a few for 5 days and that isn't bad.

Once past that , I think one would have to be happy with what the guidance evolution shows around day 13 to 15.

 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Agree, phase 6 in la nina isn't a warm look. I'm more hopeful that the MJO takes a similar progression to the previous event, traversing through phase 7. That could act to reinforce the NAO, further down the road. All in all, I don't hate what we're looking at attm. We just need climo to get on our side (not there yet), so we wait.

 

Hey, do you have the link for those graphics? They look really sharp.

[SnoSki14]

Anyone banking on a 10+ Day forecast is going to get burnt. The fact that some believe the MJO might work in our favor out to Day 13-15 is not very reassuring if you're hoping for a better pattern. 

I feel more confident that it'll be a long wait before there's anything on the table, so probably late December if not until January. 

The record fast Pacific jet and a lack of precipitation lately doesn't make me feel very confident moving forward.

[CIK62]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow what a furnace, CFS correct?  GFSx as usual.

 

[PB GFI]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anyone banking on a 10+ Day forecast is going to get burnt. The fact that some believe the MJO might work in our favor out to Day 13-15 is not very reassuring if you're hoping for a better pattern. 

I feel more confident that it'll be a long wait before there's anything on the table, so probably late December if not until January. 

The record fast Pacific jet and a lack of precipitation lately doesn't make me feel very confident moving forward.

You are going to post guidance when you make the wild claims.

 The I/O changes are in the 6 to 10. That translates by day 10 at 500 and probably on the E/C by day 12

We don't need reassuring Nov is BN.

No one said just the MJO is favorable in " 15 days it gets better in the mid range , " but just like your November call of a torch you never include any guidance as the why a bad Dec is a "confident " call.

What guidance backs that up ?

The OLR plots in the 6 to 10 tell the story and ALL the guidance at 500 from that point show high latitude blocking.

There is no November torch and I believe that was many a forecast in here  ,  while some of us told  you we end up BN.

Now you are confident December will be bad.

 

[EasternLI]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hey, do you have the link for those graphics? They look really sharp.

 

Sure, here:

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Some are lower probability, seems due to smaller sample sizes, but it's a nice breakdown.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Sure, here:

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Some are lower probability, seems due to smaller sample sizes, but it's a nice breakdown.

Thanks. Raleighwx also has a MJO composite link. The general themes with the composites seem to work out pretty well. But when an extreme like we saw in October occurs, the result can be a much amplified version of what the general composites show.

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks. Raleighwx also has a MJO composite link. The general themes with the composites seem to work out pretty well. But when an extreme like we saw in October occurs, the result can be a much amplified version of what the general composites show.

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Thanks. I had forgotten about that one. It makes sense that a more amplified event would amplify the pattern too.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Thanks. I had forgotten about that one. It makes sense that a more amplified event would amplify the pattern too.

Yeah, the impact of the late October record MJO event has been pretty extreme. We have never seen a +350 meter 500 mb height anomaly near the Aleutians and Bering region 11/1-11-22 before. 

 

 

 

[Vice-Regent]

Unreal stuff, and global temperatures have gone off the rails in response to this block dissipating. Alot of interesting stuff going on. Downstream effects will persist for months.

 

[Vice-Regent]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wow. We really have been dry as a bone this entire month, way below normal. Thanks 

Lower precipitation in the cold season is correlated with hadley cell adjustment, which by association implies storm tracks are moving north.

[LurkerBoy]

18 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Unreal stuff, and global temperatures have gone off the rails in response to this block dissipating. Alot of interesting stuff going on. Downstream effects will persist for months.

 

What’s this mean?

[MJO812]

Gfs shows a big ridge in the long range while the gefs shows a huge trough.

[psv88]

2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

You are going to post guidance when you make the wild claims.

 The I/O changes are in the 6 to 10. That translates by day 10 at 500 and probably on the E/C by day 12

We don't need reassuring Nov is BN.

No one said just the MJO is favorable in " 15 days it gets better in the mid range , " but just like your November call of a torch you never include any guidance as the why a bad Dec is a "confident " call.

What guidance backs that up ?

The OLR plots in the 6 to 10 tell the story and ALL the guidance at 500 from that point show high latitude blocking.

There is no November torch and I believe that was many a forecast in here  ,  while some of us told  you we end up BN.

Now you are confident December will be bad.

 

November may finish AN

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

November may finish AN

How do you figure?

Today, Sunday, Monday at or BN.

Running out of days here. 

 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

How do you figure?

Today, Sunday, Monday at or BN.

Running out of days here. 

 

Thats not true. Here is the AVG high:

THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   51        73      1979
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   39        14      1880

 

Forecast:

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Saturday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 41. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 50. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 48.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 55.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

[NJwx85]

I guess my call from about a week ago with regards to a flip to a milder pattern to end November wasn’t so farfetched after all. Like I said, I didn’t buy the GEFS, instead I favored more of a progressive split flow pattern which looks to be materializing. As promised, cold and dry was the norm the last week with nothing to show for it snow wise. The -AO guarantees you nothing.