bluewave Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Models keep going back and forth that remains to be seen about the amount of cold air. You will notice the models were all much colder later last week before they figured out that the MJO would become active again. Classic case of the models having to play catch up with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You will notice the models were all much colder later last week before they figured out that the MJO would become active again. Classic case of the models having to play catch up with the MJO. Yes but we are also trusting the models on the mjo. I do think the first week of December will be above average for various reason, however feel the second and third weeks will be slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Yes but we are also trusting the models on the mjo. I do think the first week of December will be above average for various reason, however feel the second and third weeks will be slightly below average. I am not even talking about the first week of December yet. Just discussing the less cold than originally forecast pattern for late November. The key for success in December will be getting a more favorable Pacific pattern than we have seen so far. If we can get a favorable Pacific with some decent Atlantic blocking, then we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am not even talking about the first week of December yet. Just discussing the less cold than originally forecast pattern for late November. The key for success in December will be getting a more favorable Pacific pattern than we have seen so far. If we can get a favorable Pacific with some decent Atlantic blocking, then we will be in business. The EPS long range look with a -PNA/RNA is much more believable than the long range GEFS with a +PNA. With an established La Niña, it’s very hard to imagine a predominant, sustained +PNA circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS long range look with a -PNA/RNA is much more believable than the long range GEFS with a +PNA. With an established La Niña, it’s very hard to imagine a predominant, sustained +PNA circulation Both the gefs and EPS show a - Epo and - NAO in the long range. Good looking pattern by the 2nd week of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The EPS long range look with a -PNA/RNA is much more believable than the long range GEFS with a +PNA. With an established La Niña, it’s very hard to imagine a predominant, sustained +PNA circulation Doesn't matter. All it's gonna take is a well timed rising PNA, NAO and AO. That can happen. Just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The EPS long range look with a -PNA/RNA is much more believable than the long range GEFS with a +PNA. With an established La Niña, it’s very hard to imagine a predominant, sustained +PNA circulation It isn’t an established La Niña, it will peak high end weak at best and that’s pushing it. The euro weeklies are showing nearly the same pattern the GEFS is showing after the 5th of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The EPS long range look with a -PNA/RNA is much more believable than the long range GEFS with a +PNA. With an established La Niña, it’s very hard to imagine a predominant, sustained +PNA circulation The -NAO on the EPS was already starting to squash the SE ridge. That blocking pattern would shift the PNA positive especially with the -EPO in Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Neblizzard said: It isn’t an established La Niña, it will peak high end weak at best and that’s pushing it. The euro weeklies are showing nearly the same pattern the GEFS is showing after the 5th of December Oh yes, we are in an established La Niña, no denying it. Ocean and atmosphere are coupled. In fact, this year, the tropical convective forcing is even more classic La Niña, looking at the OLR, than last year was, and that was an official weak La Niña winter. Based on what the trade winds, SOI, subsurface, thermocline, and region 3.4 SSTs are doing and the unanimous model forecasts, a high-end weak Niña is a given right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: The -NAO on the EPS was already starting to squash the SE ridge. That blocking pattern would shift the PNA positive especially with the -EPO in Alaska Regardless of what the EPO, WPO, NAO and AO do, and whether or not they average negative is anyone’s guess based on what we’ve had so far, I’m pretty confident in an overall -PNA/RNA winter. Given the La Niña and associated Niña forcing, I’d honestly be shocked if we have a predominant +PNA circulation this winter. I also think we see a -PDO winter. If I’m wrong, feel free to call me out on it come April 1st and I will gladly admit my defeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Oh yes, we are in an established La Niña, no denying it. Ocean and atmosphere are coupled. In fact, this year, the tropical convective forcing is even more classic La Niña, looking at the OLR, than last year was, and that was an official weak La Niña winter. Based on what the trade winds, SOI, subsurface, thermocline, and region 3.4 SSTs are doing and the unanimous model forecasts, a high-end weak Niña is a given right now As much as I don’t like you I’ll have to agree with you, although we’ve had record cold this month we have no snow to show for it. The good thing about it as long as we have a weak La Niña we will get snow (according to records). Now another good thing is winter doesn’t start for another month. We have 3 long months of cold enough usually for snow. The gefs do show some pattern change into a better setup than an occasional rainstorm. Hopefully it doesn’t dry up completely. The way I look at it the only way earth can die off like the Bible says is if it completely dries out and it doesn’t rain anymore. Earth needs water and that’s the only way we’ll get snow or rain. Typically a pattern setting up for this first week of December could produce a decent size storm. My November forecast had no snow. In case you’re interested I have my winter weather forecast. I’ll post that below. The -epo looks good for cold in the future we just need a positive PNA to sling that trough south of the Great Lakes a little bit where you can have the waves cut through near the Cape Hatteras and track the benchmark coordinates. The good news is that the GEFS are showing that at the end of the run. The bad news is that 384 hours away in weather time is a light year away. Winter 2017-18 winter forecast for Central Park (NYC), A.K.A. (KNYC) November 2017 Rain: 2.55 inches Snow: 0.00 Temperature: +0.4 degrees December 2017 Rain: 0.49 Snow: 1.4 inches Temperature: -1.2 degrees January 2018 Rain: 0.28 inches Snow: 5.3 inches Temperature: -4.7 February 2018 Rain: 2.59 inches Snow: 41.78 inches Temperature: -1.1 degrees March 2018 Rain: 5.63 inches Snow: Trace Temperature: +1.3 degrees April 2018 Rain 1.72 inches Snow: Trace Temperature: -2.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Today's 56/35 actually managed a -0.5 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 HAPPY THANKSGIVING DAY Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2 or 3degs. AN. With Nov. @-2.0degs. to date, it should stagger across finish line to end near -1deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: We generally have to be patient during La Nina Decembers for the Pacific to cooperate enough for the heaviest snow of the month. Out of the last 15 La Ninas in NYC, only 3 years featured the heaviest December snow before the 15th. So in general, the heaviest snow of the month during a LaNina comes after the 15th. some of the best Decembers started getting measurable snow around the 10th...1947, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1993, 1995...In 1960 the first snowfall was major on the 11-12th...1947 had 2" on the 23rd and 26" on the 26th...1961 had 6" on the 24th...1962 had 3" on the 20th...1963 had 6" on the 24th...1993 had 4" on the 29th...1995 had 8" on the 20th...The years 1963 and 1995 had snow on snow for Christmas...1963-64 and 1995-96 were similar winters...both had a good December with a few snowfalls before Christmas and lengthly snow cover...A January blizzard before mid month...thawing the second half of January...Frequent February snows...snowfalls in March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, uncle W said: some of the best Decembers started getting measurable snow around the 10th...1947, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1993, 1995...In 1960 the first snowfall was major on the 11-12th...1947 had 2" on the 23rd and 26" on the 26th...1961 had 6" on the 24th...1962 had 3" on the 20th...1963 had 6" on the 24th...1993 had 4" on the 29th...1995 had 8" on the 20th...The years 1963 and 1995 had snow on snow for Christmas...1963-64 and 1995-96 were similar winters...both had a good December with a few snowfalls before Christmas and lengthly snow cover...A January blizzard before mid month...thawing the second half of January...Frequent February snows...snowfalls in March... At least for November so far, this has been the fastest November Pacific Jet across the US during the 2010's. This is even fast by La Nina November standards. The previous fastest for a La Nina since 1990 for 11/1-11/21 was 2007 and we surpassed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, uncle W said: some of the best Decembers started getting measurable snow around the 10th...1947, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1993, 1995...In 1960 the first snowfall was major on the 11-12th...1947 had 2" on the 23rd and 26" on the 26th...1961 had 6" on the 24th...1962 had 3" on the 20th...1963 had 6" on the 24th...1993 had 4" on the 29th...1995 had 8" on the 20th...The years 1963 and 1995 had snow on snow for Christmas...1963-64 and 1995-96 were similar winters...both had a good December with a few snowfalls before Christmas and lengthly snow cover...A January blizzard before mid month...thawing the second half of January...Frequent February snows...snowfalls in March... Your historical knowledge is unparalleled. Thank you for the information. Do you have a list handy of all the white Christmas years in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Your historical knowledge is unparalleled. Thank you for the information. Do you have a list handy of all the white Christmas years in NYC? years with snow on the ground Christmas morning... year...snow on ground...dates of storms... 1876.....1" 1880.....1-2"..... 1883...12"+......5" 12/25 1884.....3".......3" 12/24 1892.....trace... 1896.....1-2"..... 1902.......6.5" 12/25... 1904.....T-1".....3" 12/25... 1908.....trace........ 1909.......7" 12/25... 1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night... 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"..........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1883 must have been the greatest Christmas week on record... 1883 snowfall... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399973/ http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1883-12-26/ed-1/seq-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Nothing exciting until Dec 5 onward on the models ( cold and possible snow wise ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Remainder of month now looking to average +5degs., at 48degs. If so, it will really need some help to get across the finish line BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: At least for November so far, this has been the fastest November Pacific Jet across the US during the 2010's. This is even fast by La Nina November standards. The previous fastest for a La Nina since 1990 for 11/1-11/21 was 2007 and we surpassed that. Bluewave, Out of curiosity, which La Niña years had drier than normal November’s? And what was the total snowfalls for those winters? This November is likely to finish much drier than normal, we are way behind our normal precip to this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 New weeklies show a great pattern starting Dec 5https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/933830194409775104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: New weeklies show a great pattern starting Dec 5https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/933830194409775104 I admire your fondness for snow. until it snows and snow a lot, its all paper links to fancy images. this pattern stinks. Pure and Utter Folly to day after day hype a calm and no news weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Animal said: I admire your fondness for snow. until it snows and snow a lot, its all paper links to fancy images. this pattern stinks. Pure and Utter Folly to day after day hype a calm and no news weather pattern. I can see where this pattern is headed. It's one of those "Calm Before The Storm" starts of winter. If we maintain a BN November, then I'd say we are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 23 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: I can see where this pattern is headed. It's one of those "Calm Before The Storm" starts of winter. If we maintain a BN November, then I'd say we are good to go. It's only November and people are already complaining lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Animal said: Not trying to be a jerk. Been following this thread for weeks & if not years. admire don, blue wave & uncle for their education and years of research etc. just don't see the "big picture" more of the same imop. We went through the same deal in 2010. It may look benign at first, but timing is key with conducive patterns. This winter was always the type that has both sides to it (Based on a multitude of professional outlooks) . So of course it looks like nothing is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 November will finish BN and people need to keep it mind whenever any snow falls at 40N in November that's anomalous. November is a fall month but the reversal from October in the northern tier through our area was seen by some here. Most thought November would just be an extention of a very warm October and those ideas failed. Now as we look into December and the newly corrected MJO today as it mutes the warm phases so that by the 5th a good pattern could emerge. We are looking at high lattitude blocking to enter the month and could rule the forecast period. December looks be BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 48degs., 5degs. or 6degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Good radiational cooling night with 27 at my house in Wantagh. 20 at West Hampton. The Park only manages 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Good radiational cooling night with 27 at my house in Wantagh. 20 at West Hampton. The Park only manages 36. ..yeah..got down 23* here in Eastport..very frosty morning out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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