November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[PB GFI]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z Euro op is even more progressive than the GFS.

Day 9 was the forecast wana post 204 and 210 and 216 for the crew ?  , you are so bad at this 

And any idea how close that is to a full phase on day 8 ? 

 

12 hours faster in the N branch and 12 hours slower in the S Branch and that phases off the Delmarva 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

Hopefully we cash on a cold stormy winter so we see less posts from him 

La Ninas are historically mild and wet along the Northeast coast with a closer to the coast storm track. They are historically terrible in terms of snowfall for the mid-Atlantic, especially for Philly and SNJ.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

Day 9 was the forecast wana post 204 and 210 and 216 for the crew ?  , you are so bad at this 

And any idea how close that is to a full phase on day 8 ? 

 

12 hours faster in the N branch and 12 hours slower in the S Branch and that phases off the Delmarva 

All I said was that the Euro was more progressive than the GFS. I didn't speak at all about the long range Euro. It's honestly not even worth discussing beyond day 6-7. 

[PB GFI]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All I said was that the Euro was more progressive than the GFS. I didn't speak at all about the long range Euro. It's honestly not even worth discussing beyond day 6-7. 

NP ,  but please remember that last part when you guys start screaming zonal flow in the LR.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

NP ,  but please remember that last part when you guys start screaming zonal flow in the LR.

Okay that wasn't me. 

[bluewave]

Day 8-10 is maximum complexity type of stuff with a split flow under a retrograding block.

[PB GFI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Day 8-10 is maximum complexity type of stuff with a split flow under a retrograding block.

I agree , I just see the "possibility " and thats what I have posted on.

That was close Chris , but theres a lot of time

[Neblizzard]

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

La Ninas are historically mild and wet along the Northeast coast with a closer to the coast storm track. They are historically terrible in terms of snowfall for the mid-Atlantic, especially for Philly and SNJ.

Just so you know I wasn’t referring to you.  You’re a great asset to this board .

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Euro drops some snow for the interior this run.. mid/long range obviously can’t be taken serious, something to peek at next week at least 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I agree , I just see the "possibility " and thats what I have posted on.

That was close Chris , but theres a lot of time

The whole 120-240 hr is as busy as gets with multiple vorts in both streams under such a strong block. Can the first set of storms around day 5-6 get far enough away to allow the second two pieces energy to phase into one really big event?

[Neblizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The whole 120-240 hr is as busy as gets with multiple vorts in both streams under such a strong block. Can the first set of storms around day 5-6 get far enough away to allow the second two pieces energy to phase into on really big event?

The long range is quite blocky on the Atlantic side.  A certain poster claims the flow is fast with nothing to slow it down .  That is not true at all.  The block gets trapped near the Davis Straights  so our storm chances will be increasing as we head into thanksgiving week 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Just so you know I wasn’t referring to you.  You’re a great asset to this board .

Thank you.

I was just pointing out that La Nina's aren't historically good for us snowfall wise. Especially if it ends up being a moderate or strong La Nina.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

The long range is quite blocky on the Atlantic side.  A certain poster claims the flow is fast with nothing to slow it down .  That is not true at all.  The block gets trapped near the Davis Straights  so our storm chances will be increasing as we head into thanksgiving week 

It's a complex situation with a lot of moving parts. The problem is the Pacific flow definitely isn't favorable, so even though we get some help from the Atlantic, it's probably not enough.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Thank you.

I was just pointing out that La Nina's aren't historically good for us snowfall wise. Especially if it ends up being a moderate or strong La Nina.

2010-2011 was very good for the 1st half.

[PB GFI]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The whole 120-240 hr is as busy as gets with multiple vorts in both streams under such a strong block. Can the first set of storms around day 5-6 get far enough away to allow the second two pieces energy to phase into one really big event?

I think the EPS is close to something big day 8 / 9 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I think the EPS is close to something big day 8 / 9 

 

 

Big time amplification at higher latitudes this run. Major blocks over W AK (early) and Davis Straight regions with more ridging continuing to show out West. Good look overall.

 

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I think the EPS is close to something big day 8 / 9 

If the two streams phase in time there will be quite a storm. We just need the northern stream to slow enough so it doesn't kick the southern vort too far east.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Thank you.

 

I was just pointing out that La Nina's aren't historically good for us snowfall wise. Especially if it ends up being a moderate or strong La Nina.

 

I respectfully disagree. There is more to it than suggesting La Nina = not good snowfall. A huge key to that is Eastern enso region SSTs. Historically when they are the coolest of all enso regions, we do ok and have even scored AN snow during some of those. 95-96 nina, which was a record snowfall winter at least down here, has many similarities to current. The warm pool West of Mexico to Hawaii is unique and will be interesting to see how this plays out. But I think to paint such a broad picture on Nina = not good snows is somewhat irresponsible.

 

[NJwx85]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

La Ninas are historically mild and wet along the Northeast coast with a closer to the coast storm track. They are historically terrible in terms of snowfall for the mid-Atlantic, especially for Philly and SNJ.
 

Yeah 95-96 sure was terrible down here in terms of snowfall. Btw, the Euro op is far from progressive and is overall the most amplified model across N America from the 12z suite. Where do you come up with this stuff?

As you can see here, the mean snowfall is significantly higher at both NYC and Philadelphia during El Nino and and Neutral Enso years vs La Nina. Just because you may have found one year with a statistical anomaly, doesn't offset the mean.

And again, I wasn't talking about the Euro beyond day 7. The verification scores beyond 168hrs speak for themselves. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/us_impacts/enso_snowfall.shtml

 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I respectfully disagree. There is more to it than suggesting La Nina = not good snowfall. A huge key to that is Eastern enso region SSTs. Historically when they are the coolest of all enso regions, we do ok and have even scored AN snow during some of those. 95-96 nina, which was a record snowfall winter at least down here, has many similarities to current. The warm pool West of Mexico to Hawaii is unique and will be interesting to see how this plays out. But I think to paint such a broad picture on Nina = not good snows is somewhat irresponsible.

 

 

Just now, NJwx85 said:

As you can see here, the mean snowfall is significantly higher at both NYC and Philadelphia during El Nino and and Neutral Enso years vs La Nina. Just because you may have found one year with a statistical anomaly doesn't offset the mean.

And again, I wasn't talking about the Euro beyond day 7. The verification scores beyond 168hrs speak for themselves. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/us_impacts/enso_snowfall.shtml

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

As you can see here, the mean snowfall is significantly higher at both NYC and Philadelphia during El Nino and and Neutral Enso years vs La Nina. Just because you may have found one year with a statistical anomaly, doesn't offset the mean.

And again, I wasn't talking about the Euro beyond day 7. The verification scores beyond 168hrs speak for themselves. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/us_impacts/enso_snowfall.shtml



 

Can u adjust that chart to take into acct 1994-2016 which are not included? Your point is still taken, however I interpreted your post as stating mod-strong Nina is game over for us. My apologies if I misunderstood you.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

As you can see here, the mean snowfall is significantly higher at both NYC and Philadelphia during El Nino and and Neutral Enso years vs La Nina. Just because you may have found one year with a statistical anomaly, doesn't offset the mean.

And again, I wasn't talking about the Euro beyond day 7. The verification scores beyond 168hrs speak for themselves. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/us_impacts/enso_snowfall.shtml



 
 

Can u adjust that chart to take into acct 1994-2016 which are not included? Your point is still taken, however I interpreted your post as stating mod-strong Nina is game over for us. My apologies if I misunderstood you.

I am trying to find more current data on the CPC website however I haven't been able to locate it yet. Perhaps someone else might have better luck.

A moderate or strong La Nina doesn't necessarily mean game over, especially for the NYC area. As you can see, as you go further and further South, look at Baltimore for example, the enso impact is even greater. That's specifically why I stated Mid-Atlantic (Philly and Southern NJ) and of course you can also include BWI and DC in that. 

With all that being said, you can still get a big snowfall on the coast if things fall into place, it's just that historical statistics say otherwise. And as I am sure you know, nothing is ever a certainty, exceptions to every rule ect.

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

As you can see here, the mean snowfall is significantly higher at both NYC and Philadelphia during El Nino and and Neutral Enso years vs La Nina. Just because you may have found one year with a statistical anomaly, doesn't offset the mean.

And again, I wasn't talking about the Euro beyond day 7. The verification scores beyond 168hrs speak for themselves. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/us_impacts/enso_snowfall.shtml

 

How about a chart that doesnt eliminate weak events?

[NJwx85]

Just now, BxEngine said:

How about a chart that doesnt eliminate weak events?

We were specifically discussing moderate and strong Nina's so that chart fits the context of the conversation. 

For the record I am in no way suggesting that a moderate or strong La Nina is going to occur this year, however the latest briefing from CPC suggests that La Nina conditions are present, with a 65-75% of continuing into Winter 2018. We will have to wait and see if a moderate or strong Nina evolves.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[bluewave]

In any event, this looks like our first -AO close to -4 around Thanksgiving since 2010.

2010 11 26 -4.058

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I am trying to find more current data on the CPC website however I haven't been able to locate it yet. Perhaps someone else might have better luck.

A moderate or strong La Nina doesn't necessarily mean game over, especially for the NYC area. As you can see, as you go further and further South, look at Baltimore for example, the enso impact is even greater. That's specifically why I stated Mid-Atlantic (Philly and Southern NJ) and of course you can also include BWI and DC in that. 

With all that being said, you can still get a big snowfall on the coast if things fall into place, it's just that historical statistics say otherwise. And as I am sure you know, nothing is ever a certainty, exceptions to every rule ect.

A lot of caution is warranted with the La Niña data. Subsequent to the last date on that chart, there were nine La Niña winters (1995-96, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, and 2011-12). Mean November-March snowfall was 31.6" and median was 27.6" in NYC.

However, perhaps the most promising factor that favored above or much above normal snowfall during a La Niña winter was the predominant state of the PDO. When the PDO was negative, snowfall was less. When it was positive, it was greater and a much higher number of years saw much above normal snowfall. Since 1949-50, there were 15 La Niña winters. Mean snowfall was 24.9" and median snowfall was 23.1". Here's how things fared when the PDO was considered:

PDO-: Mean: 19.9"; Median: 16.3"; % < 20": 60%; % 30" or more: 7%; Least: 4.5", 2011-12; Most: 61.9", 2010-11

PDO+: Mean: 39.9"; Median: 35.0"; % <20": 0%; % 30" or more: 60%; Least: 24.1", 1984-85; Most: 74.9", 1995-96

Notes:

1. All snowfall figures are for the November-March period.

2. La Niña-PDO+ combinations were infrequent. There were only five such winters (25% of the overall sample). That subset saw three winters with 30" or more snow during the November-March period. The remaining subset of such La Niña winters had only 1 such winter.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

I think we're in for fun, stormy times in the weeks ahead regardless of whether it snows or not. It's early, there's no need to cry about missed opportunities. 

Very unusual configuration this season, I don't know what to expect honestly.

[PB GFI]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The D+8 top analog for the 500 mb pattern was a high impact event for New England. 

http://www.nytimes.com/1981/12/07/us/unpredicted-storm-brings-new-england-up-to-2-feet-of-snow.html

 

 

I wonder who the forecaster was that called for 2 inches.

I am guessing the next day was an unpleasant one in his bosses office

[PB GFI]

14 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a complex situation with a lot of moving parts. The problem is the Pacific flow definitely isn't favorable, so even though we get some help from the Atlantic, it's probably not enough.

What PAC flow are you talking about ?

The Euro connects a ridge extending from the Kara sea to the Baja.

There's a vortex in W Canada but that coming South .

You have an incredible block with a - 4 SD AO.

In the last 10 days KNYC is - 6.8 this not representative of PAC flow.

The problem is the speed of the 2 branches and finding a SW that is in a bad data spot over the pole , ( or doesnt exist ) nothing more .

If the timing is off nothing happens

Days 5 thru 13 are BN on  the EPS and thats not PAC flow either 

[uncle W]

if the arctic oscillation hits -4 or lower it would be very significant as far as the November ao goes...not many years had an ao hit -4 or lower...

year...Nov low ao date...winter ao low and date...

1959...-5.896 on 11/18...-4.108 on 1/28/60

1962...-3.838 on 11/17...-5.010 on 1/21/63

1968...-4.201 on 11/15...-5.282 on 2/13/69

1998...-4.123 on 11/16...-3.741 on 3/9/99

2010...-4.058 on 11/26...-5.265 on 12/18/10