November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

December isn't a Winter month for us either. January has been questionable the last few years.

December is but it hasn't been in several year

[PB GFI]

57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The cold, nasty and mostly uneventful beginning of November looks to finally be in the rear view mirror and a flip to average or even slightly above average pattern as we approach the end of November seems likely. The upcoming AO drop is significant, but the rest of the pattern supports that big cutter towards Quebec. 

Could you please post the ensembles that go AN at 2 M through the end of the month 

I have time 

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Could you please post the ensembles that go AN at 2 M through the end of the month 

I have time 

You're relying on the garbage GEFS which shows below average temps over the East to close out the month. The EPS has shown a warm air surge developing over Rockies and surging into Eastern Canada with 850mb temps well above normal in the 7-10 day range in that region. The only fly in the ointment is a trough which attempts to dig Southeast behind the cutter, only to be shoved Northward into Canada by the building ridge. Given seasonal trends for the WAR to dominate, I expect minimal impact from that trough, thus allowing those warmer anomalies to build Eastward. 

With all that being said, the pattern should remain progressive, as was correctly forecasted by the European guidance. I'm completely discounting the GEFS until it has more support. 

FWIW the 12z GFS agrees with my thinking, which is for a resurgence of the WAR. The system shown around the 26th will likely carve out a long wave trough out West and cut to our West, further reinforcing the above normal pattern.

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has trended colder in the long range.

I have said this before. Models usually struggle during pattern changes.

The EPS shows warm air building from the Pacific days 7-10. Look at that complete torch in most of Canada.

[PB GFI]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You're relying on the garbage GEFS which shows below average temps over the East to close out the month. The EPS has shown a warm air surge developing over Rockies and surging into Eastern Canada with 850mb temps well above normal in the 7-10 day range in that region. The only fly in the ointment is a trough which attempts to dig Southeast behind the cutter, only to be shoved Northward into Canada by the building ridge. Given seasonal trends for the WAR to dominate, I expect minimal impact from that trough, thus allowing those warmer anomalies to build Eastward. 

With all that being said, the pattern should remain progressive, as was correctly forecasted by the European guidance. I'm completely discounting the GEFS until it has more support. 

FWIW the 12z GFS agrees with my thinking, which is for a resurgence of the WAR. The system shown around the 26th will likely carve out a long wave trough out West and cut to our West, further reinforcing the above normal pattern.

lol

THE EPS IS BELOW NPRMAL AT 2 M DAY 12 THRU 15 

Did you even bother to look ? 

The center of the ridge is over HB , the heights you see at 500MB is an arctic  HP on day 12.

The EPS -NAO stops the ridge , there is zero warm surge coming in the LR for any extended period 

In fact the EPS highest heights are retrograding back into W Canada day 14 and 15

Thats right the euro not the gfs.

You are in love with bright colors and you're not even bothering to look at the levels below 

I posted the EPS 2 meters away maybe Anthony could cut and paste them for u 

[NJwx85]

13 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

lol

THE EPS IS BELOW NPRMAL AT 2 M DAY 12 THRU 15 

Did you even bother to look ? 

The center of the ridge is over HB , the heights you see at 500MB is an arctic  HP on day 12.

The EPS -NAO stops the ridge , there is zero warm surge coming in the LR for any extended period 

In fact the EPS highest heights are retrograding back into W Canada day 14 and 15

Thats right the euro not the gfs.

You are in love with bright colors and you're not even bothering to look at the levels below 

I posted the EPS 2 meters away maybe Anthony could cut and paste them for u 

Of course I looked, and with all that warm air in Canada, where is the cold air coming from? Meteorology over modelology. 

[PB GFI]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Of course I looked, and with all that warm air in Canada, where is the cold air coming from? Meteorology over modelology. 

You think an anomaly of plus 5c in central Canada is "warm" , I can't.

If the higher heights are over western Canada or HB , whats " plus 5 " AGAINST THIER NORMS" is below normal here as that gets blocked and pressed south into a trough sitting right on the coast due to a neg nao.

You are looking at anomalies 

Canada isn't " warm " 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

You think an anomaly of plus 5c in central Canada is "warm" , I can't.

If the higher heights are over western Canada or HB , whats " plus 5 " AGAINST THIER NORMS" is below normal here as that gets blocked and pressed south into a trough sitting right on the coast due to a neg nao.

You are looking at anomalies 

Canada isn't " warm " 

I'm not arguing with you about this, I've stated my reasoning.

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i posted about the PDO in the nina thread. i looked at every nina since 1995 and can't find such a warm la nina pacific with the exception of last year

Different configuration though, right?  If memory serves, last year featured warmer anomalies around and to the northwest of Hawaii and a cold thumb extending from the northeast coast of Asia, running south of the Aleutians, all the way to the US WC.  Niño 1.2 was also pretty warm, from what I remember (especially as we approached mid-winter).  This year seems like almost the inverse based on what Chris posted a page back.  Cold in Niño 1.2 and a warm 'thumb' in the NPAC replacing last year's cold one, along with abundant warmth off the Baja Peninsula.

Pacific def seems confused after the super Niño.  Wonder what what means as far as how our wintertime pattern sets up though....way outside my hobbyism, but I would love to see some pros speculate...

[Eduardo]

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not arguing with you about this, I've stated my reasoning.

I think Paul's main point is that, while Canada warms some amidst what we all hope to be a healthy PAC reshuffle, the +5C air that takes hold in Canada for a bit is still plenty cold for us if the block squashes it directly southward towards our area.

[MJO812]

Look at the major differences from 12z gfs and 18z gfs
Turkey day is cold now lol.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I think Paul's main point is that, while Canada warms some amidst what we all hope to be a healthy PAC reshuffle, the +5C air that takes hold in Canada for a bit is still plenty cold for us if the block squashes it directly southward towards our area.

Agreed, +5c in central Canada at the end of November is still temps in the teens.  

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I think Paul's main point is that, while Canada warms some amidst what we all hope to be a healthy PAC reshuffle, the +5C air that takes hold in Canada for a bit is still plenty cold for us if the block squashes it directly southward towards our area.

And my original post stated a return to normal or slightly above normal. He’s making it seem like I said we were going to be way above normal which is not the case.

[CIK62]

CPC is bone dry and with encroaching heat from the west over the next 2 weeks.    I like big surprises starting after Dec. 10.   

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the major differences from 12z gfs and 18z gfs
Turkey day is cold now lol.

Gfs has been a mess... remember the phantom storm? Euro never had one to begin with, now GFS agreed 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

lol

THE EPS IS BELOW NPRMAL AT 2 M DAY 12 THRU 15 

Did you even bother to look ? 

The center of the ridge is over HB , the heights you see at 500MB is an arctic  HP on day 12.

The EPS -NAO stops the ridge , there is zero warm surge coming in the LR for any extended period 

In fact the EPS highest heights are retrograding back into W Canada day 14 and 15

Thats right the euro not the gfs.

You are in love with bright colors and you're not even bothering to look at the levels below 

I posted the EPS 2 meters away maybe Anthony could cut and paste them for u 

Not directed towards anyone here... but I think a major issue, especially Twitter land. Is in fact the bright color click bait, and less experienced hobbiests. Some see red, even deep red, and their mind wanders to “torch” when in reality that could be 2-5 degrees AN... if an avg temp for climo sits at lets say 40f this time of year, I hardly would say 44-50 is a “torch”. We go to this dance every year lol

 

if im seeing pinks or whites... then I’m freaking worried, but transient warmth of 0-5 degrees.. meh

 

youll peak my interest or worry when I’m seeing +10 and beyond. 60 on Xmas is a torch, not 48 in November 

[WeatherFeen2000]

It’s been colder than normal this November so let’s keep following the trends. GFS 18z has plenty of frigid air so chances for snow are there. That’s about it

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is a completely new occurence to have the record SST warmth north of the equator in the Eastern to Central Pacific during a La Nina. The off equator SST's are even warmer than during El Ninos before 2015-2016.

 

Chris, what do you think is causing this?  Funny thing is, we had an area of cold temps in the eastern Pac off the California coast during our record el nino a couple years ago.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe a stronger Pacific Jet into Western North America due to the greater SST and airmass differential. The key to the exact location will be the combination of various teleconnections. Last winter it was California.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/very-wet-2017-water-year-ends-california

Across the Northern Sierra Mountains, where the highest rainfall amounts were recorded, an eight-station average of precipitation totals during the 2016-2017 water year reached 94.7 inches, the highest on record and over six inches higher than the previous record set in 1982-83. Farther south near the agriculture-heavy San Joaquin Valley, a five-station average showed that the past water year was the second wettest on record after 72.7 inches fell.

Much of this precipitation fell during an extremely wet January and February as numerous atmospheric river events drenched the state. It was an unusually high amount of precipitation to occur during a La Niña winter. The wettest water years in California tend to occur with El Niño conditions during the winter, while the drier years are often concurrent with La Niña winters. For instance, the extremely wet 1982-83 water year was a year with one of the strongest El Niños on record, and the extremely dry 1976-77 water year had a strong La Niña that winter.

What? I thought both 1976-77 and 1977-78 were weak el ninos lol.

 

Also, there was a pool of cool water near Cali that made 2015-16 el nino pretty dry in So Cal.

 

[MJO812]

18z Gefs is nice and cold throughout the entire run

 

First the cold then the snow

 

Patience

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can trace it back to the development of the world famous blob during the summer of 2013. That's when the record breaking blocking and SST's began to develop across the Eastern Pacific Basin. It was like a switch flipped following the record breaking March 2013 -AO.

Hmm I wonder what caused the blob?

We went from atlantic and arctic blocking to pacific blocking and -EPOs.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the major differences from 12z gfs and 18z gfs
Turkey day is cold now lol.

Exactly the problem. No offense, I like you, you’re a good guy, but why do you keep falling for the GFS? Honestly, it’s a horrible model. Schizophrenic. Cold, warm, cold, warm. Storm, no storm, storm, no storm. Flip, Flop. There is obviously major issues with that model suite....operational and ensembles. It’s not correct just when it shows cold, and wrong when it shows warm AND vice versa. It has burned people so many over the last 3 winters, it’s comical now. The Canadian has proven to be junk, on par with the GFS as well. I don’t even look at it anymore. Remember all its fantasy blizzards last winter? The Euro suite, namely EPS, is the best we have. Don’t keep disappointing yourself. The EPS is showing an in between solution, and probably is the closest to reality. It’s not a torch, take it and run...I am, it’s still fall.  And no, I don’t think a torch is coming, the EPS is reasonable 

[NJwx85]

37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Gefs is nice and cold throughout the entire run

 

First the cold then the snow

 

Patience

I see average temps with typical transient cold shots. I also suspect it will moderate some moving forward. As mentioned, the GEFS is on an island by itself. 

I would also gander that if you took the time to do a statistical correlation between average temps of 1 standard deviation below average for the next 30 days and historical snowfall during such period at Central Park that it wouldn’t result in any statistical significance. In other words, cold weather in late November has little bearing on our snow chances moving forward.

[WeatherFeen2000]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I see average temps with typical transient cold shots. I also suspect it will moderate some moving forward. As mentioned, the GEFS is on an island by itself. 

I would also gander that if you took the time to do a statistical correlation between average temps of 1 standard deviation below average for the next 30 days and historical snowfall during such period at Central Park that it wouldn’t result in any statistical significance. In other words, cold weather in late November has little bearing on our snow chances moving forward.

Dude yanks fan let the teacher teach you that days are still getting shorter and nightfall is dominating creating its own cold air. Therefore I don’t see a warm up here. Unlike January thaws can really warm you up because of the sun difference, here we are losing sunlight. I don’t think it may stay freezing the whole entire time but it’s only going to get colder and the possibilities just like our own life and it’s choices, there’s a possibility there may be some snow even for the coast within a week or two!

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I see average temps with typical transient cold shots. I also suspect it will moderate some moving forward. As mentioned, the GEFS is on an island by itself. 

I would also gander that if you took the time to do a statistical correlation between average temps of 1 standard deviation below average for the next 30 days and historical snowfall during such period at Central Park that it wouldn’t result in any statistical significance. In other words, cold weather in late November has little bearing on our snow chances moving forward.

The pattern coming up is great to see snow but we need vorts.

[SnoSki14]

No reason to go beyond Day 4-5 on most of these models, gfs is struggling a lot now even at Day 5.

It's a moot point if you're looking for our first big snows since even the most favorable pattern would likely give us rain, it is still November after all and we aren't Central & Northern New England. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I dont see what all the arguing is about the upcoming pattern. All 3 major ens families are in agreement that a Western based negative nao ridge (block?) develops early next week, the monster EPO block (which mind you was NOT in an ideal position to begin with if you want a solid PAC look) is eroding and being replaced with a trof feature over AK which downstream helps pump heights along and into the Western US (quasi +PNA look). Both of these features, while not the be all/end all of great patterns for wintry weather, are a really good look to round out the month. Even the EPS has a stream of disturbances every 2 days that help keep the flow out of the WNW into our region. Transient? Sure, I guess you could make an argument that the fast flow under the -NAO keeps the trofs moving thru on the EPS, but again, this is NOT a bad look even on the EPS and did we really expect (or want?) the absolute perfect pattern right now in November? As some said, November wintry stuff is bonus. I will gladly take the look of all 3 major ens families thru the end of their respective ranges that they are showing heading into early December. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No reason to go beyond Day 4-5 on most of these models, gfs is struggling a lot now even at Day 5.

It's a moot point if you're looking for our first big snows since even the most favorable pattern would likely give us rain, it is still November after all and we aren't Central & Northern New England. 

I never get why people live and die by an OP model past day 5....

[Fantom X]

Hey- at least this pattern doesn't resemble Nov 2015

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Dude yanks fan let the teacher teach you that days are still getting shorter and nightfall is dominating creating its own cold air. Therefore I don’t see a warm up here. Unlike January thaws can really warm you up because of the sun difference, here we are losing sunlight. I don’t think it may stay freezing the whole entire time but it’s only going to get colder and the possibilities just like our own life and it’s choices, there’s a possibility there may be some snow even for the coast within a week or two!

You do realize the sun angle is essentially the same in late November/December as it is in January right? 

Just some perspective Worschester Mass the snowiest true city in the North East (not including western NY) only averages 2.6” in November. #2 Portland Maine only 1.8”!!!!!!!