CIK62 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 44degs , or about 2-3degs. BN. Nov. now is 2.2degs. BN and should still be near that by the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Both the operational Euro and EPS have absolutely nothing at all for next week or the next 15+ days. Pattern goes mild on it too And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). Or the GFS can be showing phantom blocking as is its normal bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Low of 35 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). Could you please post the latest verification scores showing the GFS outscoring the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Could you please post the latest verification scores showing the GFS outscoring the EPS? Look at the total night and day differences between the GFS and Euro at only day 6, forget even the long range, like not even close lol. My money is on the EPS. Remember when the great GFS totally lost this past weekend’s arctic cold shot?? Run after run too?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Both the operational Euro and EPS have absolutely nothing at all for next week or the next 15+ days. Pattern goes mild on it too Gefs agrees with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Models usually struggle during pattern changes. The poster made a claim that the GFS has been doing better than the Euro. I just wanted to know if he had something to back up that claim or if it was typical hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 So, from what I can see in the long range, the GFS has a low inside the BM right around Thanksgiving with a surge of cold air afterward. Would this be considered an outlier at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, swataz said: So, from what I can see in the long range, the GFS has a low inside the BM right around Thanksgiving with a surge of cold air afterward. Would this be considered an outlier at this point? The 06z GFS tracks the low from near OBX to about 200 miles SE of the BM. The 00z GFS was tucked into the coast and was rain for everyone within 200 miles of the coast. Meanwhile that "threat" has little support from the 06z GEFS and zero support from the ECMWF/EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Perhaps I was looking at an older run. Either way it would seem that the GFS is not in line with other models and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 18 minutes ago, swataz said: Perhaps I was looking at an older run. Either way it would seem that the GFS is not in line with other models and ensembles. I went back and looked at the last two days of GFS runs. None of them showed a significant snow threat for the region near Thanksgiving (+/- 48hrs) of 12z 11/23/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 50 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs agrees with the op No it doesn't. The GEFS has no more than 0.20" or 0.30" North and West and even less than that near the coast while the 06 GFS indicates 0.50"+ North and West of NYC with greater amounts over the Poconos which is why it's spitting out the snowy weenie map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 GEPS mean has a fairly strong signal for a coastal low 11/23-11/24 that hangs around the BM fwiw. Euro family seems the only guidance to lack this signal. Either a euro coup coming or as someone else pointed out, having its usual challenges in the SW with the pattern change coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I went back and looked at the last two days of GFS runs. None of them showed a significant snow threat for the region near Thanksgiving (+/- 48hrs) of 12z 11/23/17. Who said we were going to see significant snows for Thanksgiving? Maybe snow showers or something light at best. My idea was that the blockiness would continue and we would see mainly N to BN temps with stormy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 OK. Perhaps I wasn't clear. I just noticed that the run I was looking at showed the storm was too close to the coast for any snow here at all. If the later run shows it well offshore then, well, the coast loses out on any snow chance either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). If the pattern was wall to wall cold, he wouldn’t be posting ...we all know that by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Who said we were going to see significant snows for Thanksgiving? Maybe snow showers or something light at best. My idea was that the blockiness would continue and we would see mainly N to BN temps with stormy weather. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Who said we were going to see significant snows for Thanksgiving? Maybe snow showers or something light at best. My idea was that the blockiness would continue and we would see mainly N to BN temps with stormy weather. People expect too much too early. The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: People expect too much too early. The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month. 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree My point was that people shouldn't be posting clown maps from a GFS run that just happened to show a few inches near the area, especially when it has no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Both the operational Euro and EPS have absolutely nothing at all for next week or the next 15+ days. Pattern goes mild on it too Shhhhh you missed this entire current cold period that began Friday thru Thanksgiving. Feel free to post the weeklies from Oct 30 for week 3 and 4 vs the current front 2 weeks at 500mb and look at the atrocious bust that you guys posted on. You guys were cheering the same AN forecast then missed the period and just keep it moving huh ? There is nothing but ridging on the weeklies and nothing supports any long warm up. Transient sure , but if you ridge the WC you will force the trough back in the east over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 i'll believe a storm happens 2 days in advance... i will not pay attention to 10 day out postings from anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: People expect too much too early. The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month. I’m definitely in agreement with this. We knocked down coastal water temps a little bit with current cold period but they are still way too warm. It’s still going to take the perfect setup to get it to snow near the coast. If I was in OC or the Poconos it would be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m definitely in agreement with this. We knocked down coastal water temps a little bit with current cold period but they are still way too warm. It’s still going to take the perfect setup to get it to snow near the coast. If I was in OC or the Poconos it would be a different story. if we could have snow on halloween we can have it it late november even with warm ocean temps relatively speaking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z UKMET caves to the more progressive Euro. Check out the PNA at 144. Better than the GFS and light years better than the Euro It's the least progressive with Its ridge axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the +EPO taking such a big rise, the +PNA ridge may be progressive and propagate further east over time. You lose the EPO with that bomb coming off Alaska but it's diving SW and it's going to pump the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: People expect too much too early. The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month. The day before T-giving 2014 I got 10" of cream cheese. Doesn't happen often but when it happens it doesn't fool around. The storms after the hurricanes in 2011/12 were no joke either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: But with the the record Aleutian ridge weakening, the PAC Jet may try to push the +PNA ridge off the mark toward Central Canada instead of Western. Eventually yes , but the UKMET through 144 is the least progressive and would probably yield something on the EC as the ridge axis is far enough west. I think it's prudent to think eventually this breaks down , but what has to break down was totally missed in here by some. That said , Thanksgiving week starting with snow showers on Sunday could be a fun tracking week. Now as far as week 4 goes , will look at it at the end of this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 52 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Eventually yes , but the UKMET through 144 is the least progressive and would probably yield something on the EC as the ridge axis is far enough west. I think it's prudent to think eventually this breaks down , but what has to break down was totally missed in here by some. That said , Thanksgiving week starting with snow showers on Sunday could be a fun tracking week. Now as far as week 4 goes , will look at it at the end of this week The record Aleutian blocking ridge dropping the EPO has been our primary cold source in November. If the Aleutian ridge starts to fade with a more of a +EPO, then the PAC Jet will produce a progressive pattern here with fast flow. The next several days of runs will be key as to where this pattern is eventually headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Not comfortable seeing a rather unfavorable Pacific pattern, that Alaskan vortex is a cause for concern even if the Atlantic is excellent. We risk seeing good storm tracks that lack arctic air if we lose the Aleutian ridge and -EPO completely. This means coastal plain would see mostly rain/mixed events while interior does very well with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.