LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: When was the last time either had three straight record lows? Wow. Did Marthas Vineyard, Westhampton and Toms River all get down to 19 degrees Saturday Morning, Don? No, not Saturday morning. Winds were up area wide thus minimal radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, North and West said: Thanks, so too soon for specific days? I’d say IF... and a big IF.. this were an event, cause until recently, with the zonal flow we’ve been experiencing, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this weak and sheeres OTS as a 1014mb thru the capitol region. But time I’d say 22-25 Nov somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: No, not Saturday morning. Winds were up area wide thus minimal radiational cooling. Oops sorry I meant Sunday morning! I saw FOK was at 20 degrees at around 5 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Euro has absolutely no moisture to work with on that thanksgiving event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro has absolutely no moisture to work with on that thanksgiving event Straight zonal and semi-zonal flow, nothing in the Atlantic to slow anything down, no traffic at all. Everything is very progressive. There is mounting evidence that we go mild/warmer than normal just after Thanksgiving; stratospheric PV gains strength, stratosphere gets cold, +EPO/-PNA takes hold and it looks like we lose the negative AO and NAO. For how long remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: The block was so strong all the heavy snows missed us to the south and we had 1-2" clippers but it was so cold that 1-2" of snow stuck to the ground all month! I remember Philly had something like 34 straight days with a 32 degree reading or less. There was also 1-2 bad timed rain events too. That was more or less the story of the 80s here. December 2000 almost was an 89 repeat but we pulled a storm at the last second to save the month. If I remember right we also had 2 badly timed rain events that month around the 10th and 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Straight zonal and semi-zonal flow, nothing in the Atlantic to slow anything down, no traffic at all. Everything is very progressive. There is mounting evidence that we go mild/warmer than normal just after Thanksgiving; stratospheric PV gains strength, stratosphere gets cold, +EPO/-PNA takes hold and it looks like we lose the negative AO and NAO. For how long remains to be seen The EPS has that. Although it's so torched from the Hudson Bay to the SE US. Only the West Coast will have snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Straight zonal and semi-zonal flow, nothing in the Atlantic to slow anything down, no traffic at all. Everything is very progressive. There is mounting evidence that we go mild/warmer than normal just after Thanksgiving; stratospheric PV gains strength, stratosphere gets cold, +EPO/-PNA takes hold and it looks like we lose the negative AO and NAO. For how long remains to be seen Would have to agree, after this one shot around thanksgiving I don’t think we see much until 2nd week December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Anyone see the latest eps...keeps us very cold through the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Anyone see the latest eps...keeps us very cold through the 28th It does? I thought it torched at HR 276? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 I’d b ok with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: It does? It thought it torched at HR 180? 240 hr mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 240 hr mean Check the edited comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Hr 276 slight warm arm up before we go back to normal/below norm overall 360 temp mean... the eps run is -1 / -2 for entire EC oue only real warm up is temporary each time, this weekend, then around 296, other that we’re BN/NORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Stratospheric AN temps. at 50mb are greatest near the 20,21,22,23 and would keep it BN down here as shown. 50mb strat. T is neutral for rest of month probably after this period. I am betting on only 5 more AN days for remainder of month or a lot of too close to call type days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CIK62 said: Stratospheric AN temps. at 50mb are greatest near the 20,21,22,23 and would keep it BN down here as shown. 50mb strat. T is neutral for rest of month probably after this period. I am betting on only 5 more AN days for remainder of month or a lot of too close to call type days. Right, I’d say the BN days will nearly cancel out any AN we have, considering they’re not WELL AN, and bring us around -1/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 This looks like it will be our biggest one month temperature drop since Dec 15-Jan 16. NYC Dec 15.....50.8 Jan 16......34.5 Oct 17......64.1 Nov 17.....48.8...so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hr 276 slight warm arm up before we go back to normal/below norm overall 360 temp mean... the eps run is -1 / -2 for entire EC oue only real warm up is temporary each time, this weekend, then around 296, other that we’re BN/NORM Oh great. Thank you. Kinda looks like an Omega Block. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Would have to agree, after this one shot around thanksgiving I don’t think we see much until 2nd week December The mild up after Thanksgiving is legit, there is support for it. We also loose the -WPO, flow goes zonal, so you are going to get maritime pacific air for awhile, question is how long? One thing you do not want to see is an Alaska vortex develop. Barring that happening, I would think you would see another cold drop after mid December, possibly late December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This looks like it will be our biggest one month temperature drop since Dec 15-Jan 16. NYC Dec 15.....50.8 Jan 16......34.5 Oct 17......64.1 Nov 17.....48.8...so far That was the Kara Block going to work in January 2016 wasn't it (although that month was still above normal but nothing like what December 2015 was- plus we also had our biggest snowstorm on record in January 2016!) As the monthly average keeps ticking down, there's a good chance the Oct17/Nov17 difference will beat Dec15/Jan16 though we probably won't get the same kind of historic snowstorm that January 2016 gave us. Our average temp for November has to go down a full degree to match the temperature difference, and that is definitely doable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Straight zonal and semi-zonal flow, nothing in the Atlantic to slow anything down, no traffic at all. Everything is very progressive. There is mounting evidence that we go mild/warmer than normal just after Thanksgiving; stratospheric PV gains strength, stratosphere gets cold, +EPO/-PNA takes hold and it looks like we lose the negative AO and NAO. For how long remains to be seen So I guess the gfs gets zero credit and everything shown now will stay exactly the same way for the next few weeks. Really think the EPS/Euro is underestimating the blocking pattern and we see corrections with every run forward. Our patterns as of late have not been known to just go away after a few days (see summer, see Sep-early Nov). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: So I guess the gfs gets zero credit and everything shown now will stay exactly the same way for the next few weeks. Really think the EPS/Euro is underestimating the blocking pattern and we see corrections with every run forward. Our patterns as of late have not been known to just go away after a few days (see summer, see Sep-early Nov). I think we will all see snow flakes on Sunday and then have to watch for a storm during Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: So I guess the gfs gets zero credit and everything shown now will stay exactly the same way for the next few weeks. Really think the EPS/Euro is underestimating the blocking pattern and we see corrections with every run forward. Our patterns as of late have not been known to just go away after a few days (see summer, see Sep-early Nov). Unless our recent bout of cold was just a temporary MJO-induced suspension of our more typical Niña-like regime. Time will tell. Didn't we have a brief dump of arctic goodness before completely rebounding last December as well? I'm personally hoping for some reshuffling in the Pacific that shifts the Aleutian ridging further west along with the GOA trough. If we want a sustained wintry pattern, I think that's our best bet. ATL pattern doesn't seem to be compensating for the lackluster PAC attm, but some PAC help might do the trick! I think we see some things go our way in mid and late December. If you really think about it, any cold and snow we see before then really is just gravy, especially in our current warm climate regime...I've almost forgotten that December is even a winter month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Nice trof shift on the 00z gfs, big correction from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Significant differences starting at day 5 between gfs and euro, been a while since I've seen such a big discrepancy in less than a 5 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 It's funny that both the GFS and Euro are swapping places all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 33° here this am...Running a -1.5° departure thru yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 6z Gfs Snow event for north and west if the city during Turkey week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 NAO looks to remain negative too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6z Gfs Snow event for north and west if the city during Turkey week . Both the operational Euro and EPS have absolutely nothing at all for next week or the next 15+ days. Pattern goes mild on it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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