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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Its a wrap for more counties this morning.



Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
848 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...The growing season has come to an end...

Widespread freezing temperatures occurred overnight and early this
morning across Western Passaic and Western Bergen Counties of New
Jersey, interior southern Connecticut and southeastern Suffolk
County in New York bringing an end to the growing season.

Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost
Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be
issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring
of 2018.
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5 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

You're confident that this one remaining autumnal month will feature enough 70-degree days so that we "sail" past it?  Or is it just tomorrow and Friday?

you think we won't see any more after that? we've hit 70 in january 

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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Wow, thanks for posting this.  Very impressive record if you ask me.  No surprise that 2015 is at the top of the list as well.

No problem. Newark should be at 52 by next Monday.

NEWARK              
 KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/01/2017  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08|THU CLIMO
 N/X  54  74| 59  75| 47  60| 48  62| 58  73| 49  55| 44  59| 46 41 57

KEWR_2017110112_forecast_240.thumb.png.b81c9fe718357252a1c1d1e6aa13b576.png

 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

you think we won't see any more after that? we've hit 70 in january 

 

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I guess some people forget that we’ve been in the 80’s in November within the last 10 years

No to both.

Forky, was just wondering how you saw things evolving as the month progresses.  I could see us getting a few more, certainly.  But what makes you think we accumulate so many more that we "sail past" the record rather than just surpassing it by a few days?

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2 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

 

No to both.

Forky, was just wondering how you saw things evolving as the month progresses.  I could see us getting a few more, certainly.  But what makes you think we accumulate so many more that we "sail past" the record rather than just surpassing it by a few days?

The mean ridge in the Southeast should keep most of the trouging to our North and West, although there could be a period as mentioned towards mid month where a piece of southern stream energy might be able to undercut the ridge. Bottom line is, the pattern supports cutters, so we warm up and rain followed by a brief cool down, the ridge rebounds and wash, rinse repeat. 

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And I notice Monday is looking warmer than previously thought.

 

This week could have 3 days in the 70s.

 

Temps last night were typical for a warm air mass moving in.

Hastings: 45 at 8pm. 48 at 11pm. 50 at 7am. There was a 10 degree swing from the city at 8pm, but it doesnt look like the city cooled at all last night before the warm air moved in.

Upon approach to 31R at JFK at 630p, tower was reporting winds 090/5 but winds aloft were whipping at 130/15-20kts. I was almost ready to tell the controller to turn the airport around, but sure enough winds turned more easterly at the surface.

Very common for warm air which moves in aloft prior to the surface.

 

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