November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Paragon]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

1990 and 1996 and maybe 2005 had the latest foliage seasons in recent years I believe.  It probably happened in 96.  I doubt 1990 had any days this cold in November from what I remember.  2005 I don't think was anywhere near this late, it just was somewhat delayed compared to normal.

1989-90 I think.  Fall 1989 to be specific.  We had some big wind storms (including a tornado outbreak) and then it turned very cold, and a snowstorm for Thanksgiving and a very cold and dry December.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

23

Trying to find the stats for the earliest low temps......

I read that the earliest it's ever gotten to 25 was November 4th (1879!)

The earliest it ever got to 24 was November 9th (not sure what year).

What was the earliest it's ever gotten to 23 degrees (-5 C)?

Going by Central Park of course.

 

[Paragon]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Those numbers were at least 2 hours old at the time.   

We were already below freezing by 5 PM

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Earlier today, Mount Washington reached -9°. That's the coldest reading there so early in the season. The previous earliest reading of -9° or below occurred on November 13, 1986 when the temperature reached -16°.

That 1986 cold shot must've been amazing Don, their earliest -10 and -15 temp too?  What low did NYC have that morning?

 

 

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Don, I believe a major winter storm will be on the models and on the East Coast in the next 10 to 15 days.

As the PNA rises any one of those short waves will just dig around the base the block over the Davis Straits and run into the base of the trough before turning N/E.

The EPO strengthens and as it retrogrades the NPAC trough west the ridge will develop in its place.

The -AO will allow troughs to run into the mid lattitudes and slide down the backside of that ridge.

There is enough blocking that the flow will slow.

Now who gets what and where , too early ,

obviously areas away from 60 degree water should do better but again this is not about details.

So far only cutters are modeled and I thinks that's wrong . The 1st one seems to run to the lakes but I think anything that trails it comes under . 

( who knows the 1st could come under and redevelope ) but I am waiting for a PNA rise and thats around day 9/10.

So you may get your snowy winter off to a fast start 

Water temps are now closer to 55

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Trying to find the stats for the earliest low temps......

I read that the earliest it's ever gotten to 25 was November 4th (1879!)

The earliest it ever got to 24 was November 9th (not sure what year).

What was the earliest it's ever gotten to 23 degrees (-5 C)?

Going by Central Park of course.

 

First 23 looks like 11/5/1879.  First 22 was 11/13/1873.  Its 24 now.

[Paragon]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

First 23 looks like 11/5/1879.  First 22 was 11/13/1873.  Its 24 now.

Oh so we need to get down to 22 to set a "First" temperature record.

 

[doncat]

23 here currently, sets lowest on record for so early in season, during my station's  40 year record.

[snywx]

Down to 16° and still dropping

[Juliancolton]

24 minutes ago, snywx said:

Down to 16° and still dropping

I made it down to 12 around 2 am but have since rebounded to 18 and rising, go figure that one. I guess the BL started mixing out again after a few hours of excellent cooling conditions

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 23 here.

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The potential is certainly there. During strong blocks, the probability of measurable snow in such places as New York and Newark is more than 50% above climatology. An AO-/PNA+ pattern could be conducive to such a storm.

Problem is long range forecasting is so hit and miss.  Earlier we were talking about the possibility of a record warm November.  Now we're talking about cold.  Also, I heard about the possibility of a mild pattern starting early December.  When I talk to other people about it, they say long range forecasting has zero credibility.  "Weren't they saying it's going to be a warm November and now look what's happened.  I don't believe them when they say it's going to get milder in December, no one knows how to forecast more than a few days ahead, it's a total crapshoot, and I don't believe them," is what they say.

 

[Paragon]

34 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Current temp is 23 here.

24 here and pretty steady.  I still don't think we're past the center of the arctic air mass since the barometric pressure is still rising- now up to 30.54

Pretty clear though (pardon the pun) that tonight won't be as cold, because clouds will start moving in around 8 PM, but it should still get into the upper 20s- teens possible out east in the Pine Barrens.

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

MAN it’s cold, got down to 14, slowly crept my way up to 18 currently

[tim]

...currently @ 23.9*..barometric pressure very high @30.40".

[EasternLI]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Those numbers were at least 2 hours old at the time.   

Thanks for pointing that out. I'll be mindful of that in the future. Didn't double check FTL.

26F here at this attm.

[Cfa]

Bottomed out at 28 here, which is the coldest it’s been since March.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Chris, historically, how much staying power do such MJO-driven pattern flips have during this time of year?  Trying to gauge the extent to which I should temper my expectations.  I know that a -AO in November usually portends well for us in December which, in turn, is usually a good indicator of a blocky winter ahead.  Wondering if MJO-driven events defy this correlation though....

You never really know since each event can be different and there may be follow up MJO events that alter the current pattern. 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I'll go fetch the Lightfoot records.

Yeah, La Ninas can be notorious for intense lows coming across the Great Lakes in the fall. 

[NJwx85]

23 here currently, we made it down to 19 just before sunrise. 

Good news is that things significantly warm up after today. 

My lowest forecasted low over next seven days is 31 with highs mostly into the 50’s.

[gravitylover]

Went to 14 up to 20/21 already and headed for 31. Funny things is it didn't really feel that cold out and usually the first cold shot feels colder than it is. Maybe because I spent the entire day out in the woods doing trail work yesterday so got acclimated quickly, I dunno 

[donsutherland1]

Select Record Low Temperatures for 11/11/2017:

Allentown: 18° (old record: 19°)
Atlantic City: 21° (old record: 22°)
Baltimore: 21° (tied record)
Binghamton: 14° (old record: 16°)
Boston: 23° (old record: 24°)
Bridgeport: 22° (tied record)
Mount Washington: -8° (old record: -6°)
New York City:
…JFK: 24° (old record: 28°)
…LGA: 26° (old record: 29°)
…NYC: 24° (old record: 28°)
Newark: 24° (old record: 25°)
Scranton: 16° (old record: 18°)

Note: The MOS forecast was well below the actual readings for a large number of locations.
 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

23 here currently, we made it down to 19 just before sunrise. 

Good news is that things significantly warm up after today. 

My lowest forecasted low over next seven days is 31 with highs mostly into the 50’s.

This was a bit like the record cold in February 2016 with a quick temperature rebound a few days later.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/11/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18 CLIMO
 X/N  38| 29  48| 40  52| 43  47| 40  49| 45  59| 42  52| 42  51 39 53

 

 

 

 

[psv88]

23.6 low

[Isotherm]

21F. Never decoupled. Didn't break our Freehold COOP's record low of 20F in 1956. Still impressive.

[jjvesnow]

8 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

21F. Never decoupled. Didn't break our Freehold COOP's record low of 20F in 1956. Still impressive.

Yeah, what held the temps up?   Wind?

[Paragon]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select Record Low Temperatures for 11/11/2017:

Allentown: 18° (old record: 19°)
Atlantic City: 21° (old record: 22°)
Baltimore: 21° (tied record)
Binghamton: 14° (old record: 16°)
Boston: 23° (old record: 24°)
Bridgeport: 22° (tied record)
Mount Washington: -8° (old record: -6°)
New York City:
…JFK: 24° (old record: 28°)
…LGA: 26° (old record: 29°)
…NYC: 24° (old record: 28°)
Newark: 24° (old record: 25°)
Scranton: 16° (old record: 18°)

Note: The MOS forecast was well below the actual readings for a large number of locations.
 

Don were records set for Mt Pocono and Allentown too?

I wonder if this is the earliest that JFK has reached 24.

 

[Paragon]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a bit like the record cold in February 2016 with a quick temperature rebound a few days later.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/11/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18 CLIMO
 X/N  38| 29  48| 40  52| 43  47| 40  49| 45  59| 42  52| 42  51 39 53

 

 

 

 

I wonder how cold this airmass would have been in late January or early February?

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Yeah, what held the temps up?   Wind?

Wind is a side effect of the cold air not being centered over our region- and tonight it'll be high clouds.

Still, FOK is forecasted to get into the teens.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

23 here currently, we made it down to 19 just before sunrise. 

Good news is that things significantly warm up after today. 

My lowest forecasted low over next seven days is 31 with highs mostly into the 50’s.

20s tonight