donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, Mr. Weather said: Thanks for clearing that one up for me buddy. I get that nobody really knows i was asking as far as what the models are tracking. Like i mentioned I am still pretty new to all this and just trying to learn. Thanks. The guidance isn't sufficiently good to pinpoint specific conditions that far out. FWIW, both the EPS and GEFS suggest below normal temperatures in the region. But at that range, their accuracy is not much better than climatology. The odds of colder than normal conditions would increase if the forecast extreme blocking develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: you will be proven wrong..... We shall see NWS going with 22 in the Park. I’m thinking 24. Still impressive and record breaking. I just think the CAA peaked during the day. This would mean colder in the radiational spots but warmer for the park and LGA which essentially do not radiate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Park 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The early cold shot and possibility of extreme blocking in coming days are possible indications that we might have a snowy winter based on numerous winters with similar events. A snowy December would largely confirm such an outcome. Don, I believe a major winter storm will be on the models and on the East Coast in the next 10 to 15 days. As the PNA rises any one of those short waves will just dig around the base the block over the Davis Straits and run into the base of the trough before turning N/E. The EPO strengthens and as it retrogrades the NPAC trough west the ridge will develop in its place. The -AO will allow troughs to run into the mid lattitudes and slide down the backside of that ridge. There is enough blocking that the flow will slow. Now who gets what and where , too early , obviously areas away from 60 degree water should do better but again this is not about details. So far only cutters are modeled and I thinks that's wrong . The 1st one seems to run to the lakes but I think anything that trails it comes under . ( who knows the 1st could come under and redevelope ) but I am waiting for a PNA rise and thats around day 9/10. So you may get your snowy winter off to a fast start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 New York City Area Records as of 9 pm: New York City: ...JFK: 28° (tied record set in 2004) ...LGA: 29° (broke record of 31° set 1956) ...NYC: 26° (broke record of 27° set in 1914) Newark: 27° (tied record set in 2004) Bridgeport and White Plains were all within 3° or less of their daily record low temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 It's 25*F here at Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: CAA has calmed down. It looks like the peak of the cold arrived during the day. Thus bad news for NYC and coastal low temps. I doubt we see forecasted lows verify in the park Bad news over a degree or two is just a tad dramatic, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Don, I believe a major winter storm will be on the models and on the East Coast in the next 10 to 15 days. As the PNA rises any one of those short waves will just dig around the base the block over the Davis Straits and run into the base of the trough before turning N/E. The EPO strengthens and as it retrogrades the NPAC trough west the ridge will develop in its place. The -AO will allow troughs to run into the mid lattitudes and slide down the backside of that ridge. There is enough blocking that the flow will slow. Now who gets what and where , too early , obviously areas away from 60 degree water should do better but again this is not about details. So far only cutters are modeled and I thinks that's wrong . The 1st one seems to run to the lakes but I think anything that trails it comes under . ( who knows the 1st could Cole under and redevelope ) but I am waiting for a PNA rise and thats around day 9/10. So you may get your snowy winter off to.a fast start The potential is certainly there. During strong blocks, the probability of measurable snow in such places as New York and Newark is more than 50% above climatology. An AO-/PNA+ pattern could be conducive to such a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 23 New City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Record lows after a record warm Sep-Oct is mind boggling, but extreme events are becoming the norm. 26 in Old Bridge, plants are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Bad news over a degree or two is just a tad dramatic, no? Maybe he forgot about a north wind and the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 An additional record at 9 pm was: Binghamton: 16° (broke record of 18° set in 1956) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 25.8. No more Zyrtec until next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The potential is certainly there. During strong blocks, the probability of measurable snow in such places as New York and Newark is more than 50% above climatology. An AO-/PNA+ pattern could be conducive to such a storm. Y 30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Maybe he forgot about a north wind and the city Ohh I know allllll about it. Hey well see. I was just making the point that the CAA likely peaked during the day light hours. It’s so freakin early the sun is still relatively strong. Just look at the mt Washington obs from today the cold air was aloft during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 27 here This is just a start of what to come at the end of this month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 7 hours ago, dWave said: I cant remember a time with temps this cold with so many trees still with leaves, looks 50%+ green for that matter. Im curious to see if a tree full of green leaves just shrivels up in a day or so after low 20s type temps. 1990 and 1996 and maybe 2005 had the latest foliage seasons in recent years I believe. It probably happened in 96. I doubt 1990 had any days this cold in November from what I remember. 2005 I don't think was anywhere near this late, it just was somewhat delayed compared to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Down to 23 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 New York City Area Records as of 10 pm: New York City: …JFK: 26° (broke record of 28° set in 2004) …LGA: 28° (broke record of 31° set 1956) …NYC: 26° (broke record of 27° set in 1914) Newark: 26° (broke record of 27° in 2004) Bridgeport, Danbury and White Plains were all within 3° or less of their daily record low temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: New York City Area Records as of 10 pm: New York City: ...JFK: 28° (tied record set in 2004) ...LGA: 29° (broke record of 31° set 1956) ...NYC: 26° (broke record of 27° set in 1914) Newark: 27° (tied record set in 2004) Bridgeport, Danbury and White Plains were all within 3° or less of their daily record low temperature. Newark is down to 26 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Newark is down to 26 now I fixed it. I pasted the wrong numbers for EWR, JFK, and LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 5 hours ago, EasternLI said: Found a nice graphic on the News12 website, this is at 5PM. Those numbers were at least 2 hours old at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Currently 25 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Current temp is down to 25 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 23.7 in the jersey city heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 26 in Jersey City 24 degree drop since 12am yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 No wind out there but just walked the dog in the backyard and the wood deck was really creaking when we walked on it---everything frozen solid including me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Sitting at 20 here right now. First teens this early would be really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Current temp is 24 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 18/9 currently. Great early winter cold shot. There's something about the crisp air I enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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