November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Isotherm]

If the NAO falls below -1.5 SD, this has occurred 12 times since 1950. Of those 12 times, snowfall at New Brunswick included (November):

1.8" in 1950

2.8" in 1955

0.3" in 1985

3.0" in 1995

The other 8 years featured a trace or no accumulation of snow at this site.

Just to put into perspective: the probability of accumulating snowfall, even if the NAO dips below -1.5SD, is quite low; the probability of a significant snowfall is even lower.

[donsutherland1]

At 10 am, the temperature at Saranac Lake, NY was 11° with a wind chill of -4°. A record cold air mass was continuing to pour into the region. For some locations, the potential exists for the air mass to have been historically cold for this early in the season. The 11/10 0z MOS forecasts and records are below for a number of locations:
Forecast low temperatures for November 10 (11/10/2017 0z MOS):

Albany: 20° (Record: 16°)
Allentown: 24° (Record: 21°)
Atlantic City: 25° (Record: 19°)
Baltimore: 25° (Record: 24°)
Bangor: 19° (Record: 14°)
Binghamton: 15° (Record: 18°)
Boston: 24° (Record: 25°)
Bridgeport: 26° (Record: 24°)
Burlington: 14° (Record: 15°)
Caribou: 14° (Record: 7°)
Concord: 14° (Record: 10°)
Danbury: 19° (Record: 20°)
Hartford: 18° (Record: 18°)
Islip: 26° (Record: 21°)
New Haven: 27° (Record: 20°)
New York City:
…JFK: 29° (Record: 28°)
…LGA: 28° (Record: 31°)
…NYC: 26° (Record: 27°)
Newark: 25° (Record: 27°)
Philadelphia: 30° (Record: 23°)
Poughkeepsie: 19° (Record: 16°)
Portland: 20° (Record: 15°)
Providence: 22° (Record: 22°)
Saranac Lake: 0° (Record: 3°)
Scranton: 18° (Record: 19°)
Westhampton: 24° (Record: 14°)
White Plains: 22° (Record: 21°)
Worcester: 18° (Record: 17°)

NOTE: The forecast lows are extrapolated from the forecast 3z and 6z figures.

Forecast low temperatures for November 11 (11/10/2017 0z MOS):
Albany: 11° (Record: 15°)
Allentown: 14° (Record: 19°)
Atlantic City: 19° (Record: 22°)
Baltimore: 19° (Record: 21°)
Bangor: 13° (Record: 16°)
Binghamton: 10° (Record: 16°)
Boston: 20° (Record: 24°)
Bridgeport: 20° (Record: 22°)
Burlington: 10° (Record: 16°)
Caribou: 6° (Record: 6°)
Concord: 5° (Record: 9°)
Danbury: 12° (Record: 14°)
Hartford: 10° (Record: 12°)
Islip: 19° (Record: 24°)
New Haven: 19° (Record: 16°)
New York City:
…JFK: 24° (Record: 28°)
…LGA: 25° (Record: 29°)
…NYC: 23° (Record: 28°)
Newark: 19° (Record: 25°)
Philadelphia: 25° (Record: 21°)
Poughkeepsie: 12° (Record: 13°)
Portland: 13° (Record: 11°)
Providence: 15° (Record: 16°)
Saranac Lake: -6° (Record: -1°)
Scranton: 14° (Record: 18°)
Westhampton: 14° (Record: 21°)
White Plains: 17° (Record: 20°)
Worcester: 15° (Record: 14°)

Forecast low temperatures for November 12 (11/10/2017 0z MOS):
Albany: 12° (Record: 15°)
Allentown: 18° (Record: 21°)
Atlantic City: 19° (Record: 20°)
Baltimore: 22° (Record: 18°)
Bangor: 9° (Record: 14°)
Binghamton: 15° (Record: 17°)
Boston: 26° (Record: 25°)
Bridgeport: 27° (Record: 28°)
Burlington: 11° (Record: 15°)
Caribou: 12° (Record: 6°
Concord: 8° (Record: 7°)
Danbury: 11° (Record: 18°)
Hartford: 13° (Record: 20°)
Islip: 19° (Record: 25°)
New Haven: 23° (Record: 22°)
New York City:
…JFK: 29° (Record: 32°)
…LGA: 31° (Record: 32°)
…NYC: 32° (Record: 26°)
Newark: 29° (Record: 29°)
Philadelphia: 32° (Record: 26°)
Poughkeepsie: 15° (Record: 19°)
Portland: 17° (Record: 16°)
Providence: 17° (Record: 21°)
Saranac Lake: 0° (Record: 15°)
Scranton: 13° (Record: 21°)
Westhampton: 10° (Record: 15°)
White Plains: 21° (Record: 26°)
Worcester: 19° (Record: 17°)

 

[snywx]

29/10 here right now w/ flurries. These winds are howling!

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

29/10 here right now w/ flurries. These winds are howling!

The wind has picked up a good bit during the morning 

[snywx]

10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

The wind has picked up a good bit during the morning 

power has been flickering since 9am.. Winter has arrived 

[nesussxwx]

34F right now with the sun popping in and out.. not the best day to be off haha.

[donsutherland1]

At 11 am, the temperature at Mount Washington was a record low-tying -6°.
Forecast low temperatures for November 10 (11/10/2017 12z MOS):

Albany: 18° (Record: 16°)
Allentown: 22° (Record: 21°)
Atlantic City: 23° (Record: 19°)
Baltimore: 27° (Record: 24°)
Bangor: 17° (Record: 14°)
Binghamton: 16° (Record: 18°)
Boston: 24° (Record: 25°)
Bridgeport: 26° (Record: 24°)
Burlington: 11° (Record: 15°)
Caribou: 15° (Record: 7°)
Concord: 12° (Record: 10°)
Danbury: 17° (Record: 20°)
Hartford: 16° (Record: 18°)
Islip: 24° (Record: 21°)
Mount Washington: -9° (Record: -6°)
New Haven: 24° (Record: 20°)
New York City:
…JFK: 30° (Record: 28°)
…LGA: 28° (Record: 31°)
…NYC: 26° (Record: 27°)
Newark: 24° (Record: 27°)
Philadelphia: 29° (Record: 23°)
Poughkeepsie: 19° (Record: 16°)
Portland: 21° (Record: 15°)
Providence: 21° (Record: 22°)
Saranac Lake: 1° (Record: 3°)
Scranton: 18° (Record: 19°)
Westhampton: 22° (Record: 14°)
White Plains: 22° (Record: 21°)
Worcester: 17° (Record: 17°)

NOTE: The forecast lows are extrapolated from the forecast 3z and 6z figures.

Forecast low temperatures for November 11 (11/10/2017 12z MOS):
Albany: 10° (Record: 15°)
Allentown: 13° (Record: 19°)
Atlantic City: 17° (Record: 22°)
Baltimore: 21° (Record: 21°)
Bangor: 12° (Record: 16°)
Binghamton: 11° (Record: 16°)
Boston: 20° (Record: 24°)
Bridgeport: 19° (Record: 22°)
Burlington: 7° (Record: 16°)
Caribou: 9° (Record: 6°)
Concord: 3° (Record: 9°)
Danbury: 8° (Record: 14°)
Hartford: 9° (Record: 12°)
Islip: 17° (Record: 24°)
Mount Washington: -8° (Record: -6°)
New Haven: 16° (Record: 16°)
New York City:
…JFK: 25° (Record: 28°)
…LGA: 25° (Record: 29°)
…NYC: 22° (Record: 28°)
Newark: 19° (Record: 25°)
Philadelphia: 24° (Record: 21°)
Poughkeepsie: 9° (Record: 13°)
Portland: 13° (Record: 11°)
Providence: 14° (Record: 16°)
Saranac Lake: -6° (Record: -1°)
Scranton: 14° (Record: 18°)
Westhampton: 13° (Record: 21°)
White Plains: 16° (Record: 20°)
Worcester: 14° (Record: 14°)

Forecast low temperatures for November 12 (11/10/2017 12z MOS):
Albany: 11° (Record: 15°)
Allentown: 14° (Record: 21°)
Atlantic City: 18° (Record: 20°)
Baltimore: 24° (Record: 18°)
Bangor: 9° (Record: 14°)
Binghamton: 15° (Record: 17°)
Boston: 26° (Record: 25°)
Bridgeport: 26° (Record: 28°)
Burlington: 10° (Record: 15°)
Caribou: 12° (Record: 6°)
Concord: 8° (Record: 7°)
Danbury: 11° (Record: 18°)
Hartford: 12° (Record: 20°)
Islip: 21° (Record: 25°)
Mount Washington: 4° (Record: -7°)
New Haven: 22° (Record: 22°)
New York City:
…JFK: 29° (Record: 32°)
…LGA: 34° (Record: 32°)
…NYC: 30° (Record: 26°)
Newark: 27° (Record: 29°)
Philadelphia: 32° (Record: 26°)
Poughkeepsie: 17° (Record: 19°)
Portland: 16° (Record: 16°)
Providence: 19° (Record: 21°)
Saranac Lake: 0° (Record: 15°)
Scranton: 14° (Record: 21°)
Westhampton: 9° (Record: 15°)
White Plains: 21° (Record: 26°)
Worcester: 19° (Record: 17°)

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Impressive squall passed through the New Windsor area covered ground for a bit

[JerseyWx]

Man there's a biting wind out there. Easily feels like January.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

GFS  continues with the impressive trough through its run

[MJO812]

Gfs is correcting the block

The NAO and AO values this morning are even more impressive.

[bluewave]

One of the most impressive MJO induced pattern changes that we have seen here this time of year. 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, the temperature fell to -7° at Mount Washington. That broke the daily record low figure of -6°, which was set in 1956 and tied in 1973.

Temperatures in the NYC metro area were as follows at 1 pm:

Bridgeport: 37°
Danbury: 34°
Islip: 39°
New Haven: 36°
New York City:
…JFK: 36°
…LGA: 36°
…NYC: 35°
Newark: 36°
Poughkeepsie: 32°
Westhampton: 36°
White Plains: 34°

[bluewave]

12z Euro says cancel that boat trip on the Great Lakes next weekend.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

At 2 pm, Mount Washington had a record low temperature of -8°. Should the temperature fall another degree, that would be the coldest Mount Washington has ever been so early in the season.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is correcting the block

The NAO and AO values this morning are even more impressive.

day 5 or day 12? 

[Juliancolton]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro says cancel that boat trip on the Great Lakes next weekend.

I'll go fetch the Lightfoot records.

[dWave]

I cant remember a time with temps this cold with so many trees still with leaves, looks 50%+ green for that matter. Im curious to see if a tree full of green leaves just shrivels up in a day or so after low 20s type temps.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro says cancel that boat trip on the Great Lakes next weekend.

 

 

Wow that’s like the great November gale of 1913. That also had a pressure of 968. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Storm_of_1913

 

not great for us. Just a mild rain and cold front. Too far west for any major winds 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, dWave said:

I cant remember a time with temps this cold with so many trees still with leaves, looks 50%+ green for that matter. Im curious to see if a tree full of green leaves just shrivels up in a day or so after low 20s type temps.

they will fall right off especially when the temp rises above freezing tomorrow.

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow that’s like the great November gale of 1913. That also had a pressure of 968. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Storm_of_1913

 

not great for us. Just a mild rain and cold front. Too far west for any major winds 

In a number of cases, severe October or November Great Lakes storms preceded snowy winters in the New York City region.

November 1905: NYC snowfall: 20.0"

November 1913: NYC snowfall: 40.5"

October 1916: NYC snowfall: 50.7"

November 1940: NYC snowfall: 39.0"

November 1975: NYC snowfall: 17.3"

October 2010: NYC snowfall: 61.9"

October 2014: NYC snowfall: 50.3"

Only the 1905 and 1975 cases saw less than 25" snow in NYC.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the most impressive MJO induced pattern changes that we have seen here this time of year. 

 

 

 

Chris, historically, how much staying power do such MJO-driven pattern flips have during this time of year?  Trying to gauge the extent to which I should temper my expectations.  I know that a -AO in November usually portends well for us in December which, in turn, is usually a good indicator of a blocky winter ahead.  Wondering if MJO-driven events defy this correlation though....

[Rtd208]

Current temp down to 34 here.

[MJO812]

36 here 

[forkyfork]

31 in springfield. a november freeze while the sun is still shining

[forkyfork]

[dmillz25]

32 in bed stuy Brooklyn 

[psv88]

32

[JerseyWx]

27°

[SnoSki14]

First official freeze of the season, 31F.