PB GFI Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you love storminess then that gfs run is for you, unfortunately it's a few weeks too early so we wouldn't be able to cash in on snowfall opportunities. Hopefully the blocking lasts a while. You would snow with set that up , no question. The key will be to get a PNA spike so a SW comes under a - 4/5 SD NAO sitting over Hudson Bay No promises / But that's a big time set up. Just need the SW to appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 I wonder if we will see some sound effect snow with tomorrows cold shot and very warm sound surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Someone please post the CFS day 10 thru 15 / 2 meter anomalies. Just wow , it's an exercise on how bad that model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Someone please post the CFS day 10 thru 15 / 2 meter anomalies. Just wow , it's an exercise on how bad that model is. Isn’t there someone who usually posts it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Isn’t there someone who usually posts it lol I put the map up away , its a bit outside the rest of the guidance. Just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I put the map up away , its a bit outside the rest of the guidance. Just a bit. Just a bit? It's like the rest of the models are sober and the cfs is smoking crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 the -ao doesn't last that long on the latest eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Morris said: We've seen the last few years that the CFS often isn't very good for the ensuing month until you get to the 20th or later so we are probably still 10 days away from being able to use it with any reliability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 The CFSv2 is essentially showing a scenario similar to what happened in 1959. During the second week of November in 1959, the Arctic Oscillation plunged from a peak of +1.690 on November 8 to -4.749 on November 13. The extreme November blocking peaked on November 18 with the AO bottoming out at a November record -5.896. The lowest November temperature was 21° on November 18. This blocking episode ended on November 25. There was a short-lived strong block in the first half of December, but the month featured widespread warmth. North America’s temperature anomalies were similar to what the CFSv2 depicts. Were AmericanWx around then, the “winter canceled” call would loudly been proclaimed across much of the subforums by mid-month. However, as things unfolded, it turned out that Scrooge did not steal the AO-. On December 25, the AO returned to negative values. It would remain negative through April 4, 1960. Winter 1959-60 wound up seeing 39.2” snow in New York City. Two big storms accounted for much of the snowfall: December 21-22, 1959 with 13.7” and March 3-4, 1960 with 14.5”. Right now, I don’t think a December 1959 outcome is the most likely scenario. It is interesting seeing it on the CFSv2. The Euro Monthlies offer a colder outcome. At this point, I give the colder outcome approximately a 60% probability. Finally, I have growing confidence that winter 2017-18 will likely feature far more blocking than was the case last winter. The probabilities seem tilted somewhat toward a winter with a predominantly negative AO. The potential for periods of sustained strong blocking is on the table, but it's still too soon for me to have much confidence in that idea. Having said that, I have confidence that at least one of the winter months will be very blocky (monthly AO average of -1.000 or below). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow That’s amazing and I would think would have to have positive impacts down the road. Obviously last winter was anomalous on the negative side. I would like to see what average is though before making an definite calls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s amazing and I would think would have to have positive impacts down the road. Obviously last winter was anomalous on the negative side. I would like to see what average is though before making an definite calls... It's the highest through the 8th for the last 13 years while last year was the lowest. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s amazing and I would think would have to have positive impacts down the road. Obviously last winter was anomalous on the negative side. I would like to see what average is though before making an definite calls... It's already having impacts this weekend. This air mass solely based on temps aloft isn't insanely cold but it's holding together well as it comes southeast due to that snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Almost certainly, I saw the last of the Monarchs in the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon. Two photos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Probably see a 50 degree midnight high and a 25 degree midnight low today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Next 8 days averaging about 44degs., or 4degs. BN. Used 26/54 for todays inverse proceedings, since high T already acheived. We should be -1deg. by the 18th., for the month. Need to finish below +3.5degs., in order not to become the warmest (SON) ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Down to 41 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 From the 11/10 0z GEFS, which very well illustrates how extreme the air mass now moving into the region is. The GEFS depicts 850 mb temperatures that are 3 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. As a result, NYC will smash its record low reading tomorrow and some parts of the region could see their earliest teens on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Down to 38 in the park at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Down to 36. Dropping like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 This record cold is about a month ahead of schedule compared to the 2000's average in NYC. The average first day in NYC to drop to 25 degrees or lower during the 2000's is December 7th. NYC will beat the previous earliest for the 2000's by a week set on November 18th, 2014. The latest was January 4th 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Down to 33. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Coney Island lagging behind @39degs. now. Sun will halt drop for a few hours soon. Falling temps should return by 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 Temp down to 38 here and dropping quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Woke up at 6:00 am..temp was 38. Currently, 33 on a decent NW breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 32 this morning in Butler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 At 6:35 AM International Falls was at -13 and at 6:33 AM Hibbing was at -12. Three new low records so far for November 10th, Duluth -5 F (1 F in 1986), International Falls -13 F(-6 F in 1986), and Hibbing -12 F (0 F in 1979). #mnwx#toocold 4:40 AM - 10 Nov 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 0z EPS still showing a - west based NAO and + PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Down to 37degs. in CI. Probably will hold here for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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