PB GFI Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Even better day 10 op disco should go into banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 38 minutes ago, North and West said: How so? That's quite a claim to make (not you per se; just in general this far out) Every time we have a La Niña the usual suspects bring up 95-96 and 10-11, and say they are “analogs”, without fail, literally every time. Same story every time there is an El Niño, 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 are always the “analogs”. As predictable as the rising sun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Every time we have a La Niña the usual suspects bring up 95-96 and 10-11, and say they are “analogs”, without fail, literally every time. Same story every time there is an El Niño, 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 are always the “analogs”. As predictable as the rising sun.... Thanks. Seems logical. Don't mind my few posts; had to make a new sign-in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Every time we have a La Niña the usual suspects bring up 95-96 and 10-11, and say they are “analogs”, without fail, literally every time. Same story every time there is an El Niño, 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 are always the “analogs”. As predictable as the rising sun.... Sure , but it cuts both ways . Unless you're saying here and now when the next East based Nino occurs you will never mention 97/98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 the ao/nao are forecast to dive to very low levels...the last weeks oni was up a bit to-0.4...it looks like a weak negative winter or borderline la nina with blocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The SST configuration in the Atlantic if you ask me is the best this late in the fall in ages. It's not perfect but way better than the last 3-4 years I'll have to respectfully disagree with that based upon my research. It's a bit better than past couple of years, but far removed from perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, uncle W said: the ao/nao are forecast to dive to very low levels...the last weeks oni was up a bit to-0.4...it looks like a weak negative winter or borderline la nina with blocking... The 12z EPS is holding serve around -3 SD on the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The 12z EPS is holding serve around -3 SD on the AO. -3 is better than +3 we just saw...last year we got snow when the ao went negative for a few days...the nao is also going to dive to near -1.5...2009 and 2010 saw a -5 ao in both Decembers along with a -2.5 nao at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, uncle W said: -3 is better than +3 we just saw...last year we got snow when the ao went negative for a few days...the nao is also going to dive to near -1.5...2009 and 2010 saw a -5 ao in both Decembers along with a -2.5 nao at times... It's also the inverse of last November which went from -3 to almost +3. 2016 11 4 -3.137 2016 11 5 -2.533 2016 11 6 -1.343 2016 11 7 -0.345 2016 11 8 0.163 2016 11 9 -0.016 2016 11 10 -0.579 2016 11 11 -0.358 2016 11 12 0.525 2016 11 13 1.343 2016 11 14 2.270 2016 11 15 2.847 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 What a difference a year makes. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: I'll have to respectfully disagree with that based upon my research. It's a bit better than past couple of years, but far removed from perfect. It may not be the perfect tripole setup but its not an ice bath near Greenland and Iceland like I seem to remember it being the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: Big front loaded winter on the monthlies 4 hours ago, PB GFI said: They are great In Dec and Jan , a little better than front loaded. Give me winter from the last week of November thru the first week of February then it can shut off and I will be a happy camper. As stated before I am a big fan of December snowstorms and base a good winter on that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Give me winter from the last week of November thru the first week of February then it can shut off and I will be a happy camper. As stated before I am a big fan of December snowstorms and base a good winter on that happening. Big time set up. Best you will get at 500 day 8 to 15. Something major will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Gefs looks nothing like the op It trended deeper with the trough in the east. Sick setup on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 You can visualize here how a shortwave from the GoA and a shortwave from the subtropical jet stream can merge. Cold air in injected from Canada via the +PNA, and blocking slows the flow. This provides time for storms to amplify, and it also locks in air masses (in this case, a cold one). The ridge/trough axis combination is quite conducive for east coast cyclogenesis. The blocking itself starts to materialize around the 8 day mark, so it is clearly moving forward in time, and the signal all the way to 15 days out is incredibly robust. I’m pretty certain we are going to see a level of blocking that hasn’t been present for many years. This looks legit, guys. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: You can visualize here how a shortwave from the GoA and a shortwave from the subtropical jet stream can merge. Cold air in injected from Canada via the +PNA, and blocking slows the flow. This provides time for storms to amplify, and it also locks in air masses (in this case, a cold one). The ridge/trough axis combination is quite conducive for east coast cyclogenesis. The blocking itself starts to materialize around the 8 day mark, so it is clearly moving forward in time, and the signal all the way to 15 days out is incredibly robust. I’m pretty certain we are going to see a level of blocking that hasn’t been present for many years. This looks legit, guys. Buckle up. Gefs has a big storm signal in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 With respect to the record cold air mass forecast for 11/11, Saranac Lake is forecast to have a low temperature of -3° on November 11 and -5° on November 12. That location's earliest subzero low occurred on November 6, 1909 when the temperature fell to -1°. An 11/11 subzero reading would be tied for that location's second earliest such temperature. In addition, should the temperature fall to -2° or below, that would be the coldest such reading so early in the season. The earliest reading of -2° or below occurred on November 21, 1951 when the temperature fell to -7°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 If anyone should be excited about any possible significant snowfall. It should be the interior folks. If we can get the backside of the Post Thanksgiving Storm. The coastal areas might be able to get a bit of snowfall. That's if the High Latitude Block forms late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: You can visualize here how a shortwave from the GoA and a shortwave from the subtropical jet stream can merge. Cold air in injected from Canada via the +PNA, and blocking slows the flow. This provides time for storms to amplify, and it also locks in air masses (in this case, a cold one). The ridge/trough axis combination is quite conducive for east coast cyclogenesis. The blocking itself starts to materialize around the 8 day mark, so it is clearly moving forward in time, and the signal all the way to 15 days out is incredibly robust. I’m pretty certain we are going to see a level of blocking that hasn’t been present for many years. This looks legit, guys. Buckle up. You are really posting the 384 hour 18z op GFS’s fantasy storm threats in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Blocking begins around day 8. -3 SD AO -3 SD NAO once you get a rise in the PNA , you could be in business. Big time pattern setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: If anyone should be excited about any possible significant snowfall. It should be the interior folks. If we can get the backside of the Post Thanksgiving Storm. The coastal areas might be able to get a bit of snowfall. That's if the High Latitude Block forms late next week. I agree Big time about north and west. Let’s see what this coming cold shot can do to the coastal waters. But the current low 60s are going to kill all but the absolute perfect setups. Anything marginal and you want to be inland... Big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: You are really posting the 384 hour 18z op GFS’s fantasy storm threats in this thread? It’s called an ensemble. Maybe you should look more carefully. There is also a myriad of evidence that supports blocking in the long range. A -QBO and low solar activity along with a weak -ENSO are all supportive of blocking. Also, blocking in November (which is very likely based on ensemble guidance) dramatically increases blocking chances throughout the winter, especially December. Not sure how you can discount blocking when every ensemble shows a huge signal. You can try though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 28F currently.. wouldn't be surprised if I dipped into the lower 20's radiational cooling FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 32 currently, so finally my first "freeze." We'll see how much lower we get by the morning. Imagine having your first freeze Thursday morning, and possibly teens Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 34 degrees in Monsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: You are really posting the 384 hour 18z op GFS’s fantasy storm threats in this thread? GEFS is the gfs ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 34 minutes ago, BxEngine said: GEFS is the gfs ensembles. Here is the evolution on the EPS for posterity's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 4degs. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 First freeze in Hastings on Hudson. 32F. Wood deck is nice and frosty ❄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Down to 38 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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