November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

surprisingly heavy rains continue here-close to an inch.   

[JerseyWx]

56 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Probably over 1" of rain at this point. Cold, November rain.

 

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

surprisingly heavy rains continue here-close to an inch.   

Same here.  I didn't think it would rain this hard, let alone this long.  35 now.

[nesussxwx]

30F with flurries. Not much accumulation out this way, if precipitation had been a bit heavier I would have been looking at a couple of inches.

[dmillz25]

Down to 37 here

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.64" of rain for the day.

Current temp 39

[tmagan]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

29 at 0z sat

Slight chance at a 11:59 P.M. record low on Friday.

[dmillz25]

0.80" here. 37 cold degrees here

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or 6degs. BN.  Saturday would be considered BN even mid-winter.

Unfortuately the 'Next 45' have skyrocketed again to +5 degs.  Atmosphere giveth and Atmosphere taketh.

[PB GFI]

On 10/31/2017 at 6:37 AM, CIK62 said:

Now we can start to think about the warmest (SON) ever.

(SON) Record is   61.8degs. in 2015, no less;

(SON) Average is 57.5degs. or +4.3  Record would be +4.4 or bet

Right now I do not even see a semblance of BN until 2nd week of Dec.  Canada and the rest of the US looks cold by then, but East Coast is a stubborn brat and clings to the heat.

Curses, foiled again.

 

Is it the 2nd week of December already ? 

that was quick.

[dmillz25]

39 here right now 

[PB GFI]

On 11/4/2017 at 2:21 PM, donsutherland1 said:

With the GEFS and EPS still favoring a cold shot, the 12z GFS may be an outlier. 

You and Bluewave are like men amongst boys in here.

( nzucker , Dan as well ).

I just finished reading the first 9 pages an it reads like a warm porn.

Good job by you not always buying the warmest op solution.

I get the propensity to lean AN considering the background state and recent history but the collective ignoring of all cooler guidance makes some of this stuff a hard read.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

You and Bluewave are like men amongst boys in here.

( nzucker as well ).

I just finished reading the first 9 pages an it reads like a warm porn.

Good job by you not always buying the warmest op solution.

I get the propensity to lean AN considering the background state and recent history but the collective ignoring of cooler guidance makes some of this stuff a hard read.

The updating EPS days 8-10 keep going to what the EPS has been showing day 11-15. So it looks like confidence is building for near a -3 SD or lower AO drop later this month. Just goes to show how a record breaking MJO can change up a pattern that has been record warm since September 10th. Our longer range forecasts would really improve if we could forecast the MJO beyond the range of what the EPS can do. Absent the recent record MJO activity, we may very well have continued the record fall warmth pattern until who knows when.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The updating EPS days 8-10 keep going to what the EPS has been showing day 11-15. So it looks like confidence is building for near a -3 SD or lower AO drop later this month. Just goes to show how a record breaking MJO can change up a pattern that has been record warm since September 10th. Our longer range forecasts would really improve if we could forecast the MJO beyond the range of what the EPS can do. Absent the recent record MJO activity, we may very well have continued the record fall warmth pattern until who knows when.

 

 

 

The EPS continues to show a west based -NAO in the long range. However, it is also showing a GOA vortex. If that GOA vortex has staying power, anyone hoping for cold here better pray for a persistent, predominant west based -NAO or you are going to have problems....big problems 

[PB GFI]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The updating EPS days 8-10 keep going to what the EPS has been showing day 11-15. So it looks like confidence is building for near a -3 SD or lower AO drop later this month. Just goes to show how a record breaking MJO can change up a pattern that has been record warm since September 10th. Our longer range forecasts would really improve if we could forecast the MJO beyond the range of what the EPS can do. Absent the recent record MJO activity, we may very well have continued the record fall warmth pattern until who knows when.

 

 

 

Agree , connecting the ridge from Alaska to the Kara sea out to Greenland is the horseshoe you want to see.

( wish it was Christmas week ) , but I think you pointed as well out a late November  - 2 SD AO has lead to very good Decembers in the past.

Back to the next 2 weeks , I was a buyer of the high lattitude blocking and it's good to see the EPS and GEFS still see it.

 

[CIK62]

What gave us this quick hit anyway?  Teleconnections look wrong with just EPO WPO  acting as safety valves to thermal runaway.  

Have to suspect a SSW, I guess.  Anyone know if one got down far enough to do something in the troposphere like change the shape of the PV.  I hope so, the teleconnections look bad at mid-month.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

What gave us this quick hit anyway?  Teleconnections look wrong with just EPO WPO  acting as safety valves to thermal runaway.  

Have to suspect a SSW, I guess.  Anyone know if one got down far enough to do something in the troposphere like change the shape of the PV.  I hope so, the teleconnections look bad at mid-month.

There has been no SSW whatsoever, not even close. In fact the stratospheric PV is gaining strength right now

[rgwp96]

9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

 

Same here.  I didn't think it would rain this hard, let alone this long.  35 now.

.35 of rain . Actually had some wet snow mixed in during heavy echoes .  When the precip first started yesterday it was sleet . 

[MJO812]

Monthlies look like 2010 -2011 with December and January being the coldest months

[PB GFI]

12 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

What gave us this quick hit anyway?  Teleconnections look wrong with just EPO WPO  acting as safety valves to thermal runaway.  

Have to suspect a SSW, I guess.  Anyone know if one got down far enough to do something in the troposphere like change the shape of the PV.  I hope so, the teleconnections look bad at mid-month.

Canada is freezing , NA snowover is off the the races.

( careful of an early season feedback here ).

You have a stubborn ridge over the Aleutians which bends the PACIFIC jet over the pole.

So once you increase heights in the higher lattitudes you force the trough underneath.

Once you build the height field near HB and Greenland you press on the SE ridge and you will see the trough on the EC

It doesn't have to lock off. You will find mild spells in the greatest of winters.

This stuff is transient I don't know why anything has to be " extended ".

3 + very good 10 to 15 day periods that produce probably qualify as a VG winter.

Take it.

[Morris]

Love to see my breath.

[JerseyWx]

24 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

.35 of rain . Actually had some wet snow mixed in during heavy echoes .  When the precip first started yesterday it was sleet . 

Yeah it was heavy sleet on 23 yesterday when it first started.  Had a minor accumulation of it on the deck, which was later washed away by rain.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The pattern won't be as cold relative to the means as we are going to see Friday into Saturday since the record Aleutians block will retrograde allowing the EPO to rise. Looks like a 50/50 pattern with a bunch of clippers.

Yes exactly. The advertised pattern in the long range on the EPS is “cold” from low level flow drainage resulting from the west based -NAO. The PAC it’s showing is not good at all as you said, GOA vortex, +EPO, -PNA/RNA. Alaska and western Canada are deep in the arctic freezer, as depicted 

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Yes exactly. The advertised pattern in the long range on the EPS is “cold” from low level flow drainage resulting from the west based -NAO. The PAC it’s showing is not good at all as you said, GOA vortex, +EPO, -PNA/RNA. Alaska and western Canada are deep in the arctic freezer, as depicted 

That cold bleeds east and the -wpo buckles the pac jet. The -NAO helps bleed the cold east. Anyways we don't want it to be too cold just yet. It's just nice to see the models showing a non torch pattern.

[SnoSki14]

This upcoming cold shot feels like such an outlier given our stable AN pattern, this is legit January type stuff coming up, I bet everyone is unprepared for this.

[rgwp96]

17 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah it was heavy sleet on 23 yesterday when it first started.  Had a minor accumulation of it on the deck, which was later washed away by rain.

As for my wxstation . Having a guy come and see if he can find out what the issue is next week . Could be a faulty splice somewhere 

[donsutherland1]

Forecast low temperatures for November 11 (11/8/2017 0z MOS ) included:

Albany: 13° (Record: 15°)
Bridgeport: 19° (Record: 22°)
Danbury: 12° (Record: 14°)
Islip: 18° (Record: 24°)
New Haven: 17° (Record: 16°)
New York City:
…JFK: 24° (Record: 28°)
…LGA: 24° (Record: 29°)
…NYC: 21° (Record: 28°)
Newark: 20° (Record: 25°)
Poughkeepsie: 11° (Record: 13°)
Westhampton: 14° (Record: 21°)
White Plains: 17° (Record: 20°)

To put the record temperature potential of this forecast air mass into perspective, based on the last 30-years of data, there is an implied probability of 65% that Albany would set a new record low temperature, a probability of 86% that New York City's Central Park site would see a new record, and a probability of 77% that Newark would set a new record.

Should the Bridgeport forecast verify, the 19° reading would be that city’s coldest reading on record so early in the season. The earliest sub-20° reading there was occurred on November 20, 1951.

The same holds true for Poughkeepsie. The earliest 11° or below temperature there also occurred on November 20, 1951 (11°).

New York City’s earliest 21° or below reading occurred on November 14, 1905 (20°).

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This upcoming cold shot feels like such an outlier given our stable AN pattern, this is legit January type stuff coming up, I bet everyone is unprepared for this.

It will be the biggest cold outlier relative to a running record warm pattern since February 2016. That record warm pattern got interrupted by a 500+ meter high latitude block just like this one did. And just like that Valentine's Day Arctic shot, the core of this one will only last a few days.

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes exactly. The advertised pattern in the long range on the EPS is “cold” from low level flow drainage resulting from the west based -NAO. The PAC it’s showing is not good at all as you said, GOA vortex, +EPO, -PNA/RNA. Alaska and western Canada are deep in the arctic freezer, as depicted 

I'm almost sure December 2010 had that exact pattern and was quite cold 

[uncle W]

the December 2010 ao/nao were the second lowest on record...only 2009 had a stronger negative ao and nao for December...those were the last two Decembers with a major snowstorm in NYC...

[ILoveWinter]

Going to be quite windy on Friday, any chance for a wind chill advisory? Would be incredible to see in early to mid November.