Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Post them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 One of the strongest combinations of -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO that we have ever seen to start off November. The forecast 500+ meter anomalies centered near the Aleutians are close to a record for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: One of the strongest combinations of -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO that we have ever seen to start off November. The forecast 500+ meter anomalies centered near the Aleutians are close to a record for this time of year. another big ridge that stops just short of disrupting the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 What do these signals usually mean for the upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the exception of months like July 2015 and January 2016, all the record high latitude blocking has been over the NE PAC since April 2013. It's like a switch was flipped after the record March 2013 -AO. We were even able to record a rare winter -EPO month during the 15-16 super El Nino. There has been pretty strong blocking in the WPO domain as well in the last several years. I.E. the strong -WPO blocking back in December of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: One of the strongest combinations of -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO that we have ever seen to start off November. The forecast 500+ meter anomalies centered near the Aleutians are close to a record for this time of year. Seems like low pressures every place we don't want them in the high latitudes...hopefully later November features a reshuffling of things up there. If not, then I'm worried that December will resemble last year's, where we were waiting for that -WPO to deliver some goods which just never came....the sense of deja vu I'm feeling is sort of unsettling. That said, the -QBO and the fact that the Niña seems weak and east-based gives me more hope than last year that things may turn around in our favor...November has thrown us curveballs before. But if the AO region remains hostile, I feel like we may be in trouble, at least for a good chunk of December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 one thing we don't want now is an early snowstorm...after 2011 and 2012 early season snowstorms the next one came three months later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 33 minutes ago, Dakota said: Did any ever actually come in 2011-12? November 2012; definitely...then not 'till February 2013. But 2011-12 nothing happened after October snow; except maybe over higher elevations, IIRC. Double-checking, the Central Park saw 2.9" on 29 October 2011; and then just 4.5" the rest of the winter; seasonal total 7.4". So yes, they did see more; but not too much more. But it is a salient point about early snows leading to bad winters. I remember winter 1972-73...there was a snowstorm over interior, elevated N. Jersey on 18 - 19 October 1972...parts of Sussex County saw 3.5"....and even near Trenton they had 2.5". After the 2.5" on 19 October; Trenton saw just 0.7" the rest of the winter. Also a snowstorm on 10 October 1979...the Oak Ridge Reservoir had 5.5"...which I think is near the Passaic / Morris County line and has an elevation of over 800 feet...but the rest of the winter was entirely nondescript. 1972 got 2.5" in Oak Ridge and 5.5" in 1979...1962 had 2" in October...the three winter average snowfall in NYC is 10.7"... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_page=2&state=NJ&foreign=false&stationID=286460&_target3=Next+> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Given how unusual the teleconnections are, I'm not sure what to expect D-F. Does a +NAO/AO in Oct-Nov mean it'll change in time for winter or does persistence rule. One thing we have been seeing a lot lately are very blocky, amplified patterns that can produce huge storms somewhere. Whether or not these blocks/storms end up favorable & affect us is a question mark. Personally I'm leaning towards a very mild/snowfree winter mainly due to persistence and a carry over of our fall pattern. I think something similar to 07/08 will transpire, which as we know was one of the top 5 weakest winters since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Now we can start to think about the warmest (SON) ever. (SON) Record is 61.8degs. in 2015, no less; (SON) Average is 57.5degs. or +4.3 Record would be +4.4 or better. Therefore (30/91)(2.5)+(31/91)(7.3)+(30/91)(X)=4.4 or X = 3.3degs. So if Nov. averages at least +3.3degs. we have another record on the books. Right now I do not even see a semblance of BN until 2nd week of Dec. Canada and the rest of the US looks cold by then, but East Coast is a stubborn brat and clings to the heat. Curses, foiled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Pardon my ignorance, what is the SON abbreviation? It seems obvious you are talking about a Nov warmth record but please elaborate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Now we can start to think about the warmest (SON) ever. (SON) Record is 61.8degs. in 2015, no less; (SON) Average is 57.5degs. or +4.3 Record would be +4.4 or better. Therefore (30/91)(2.5)+(31/91)(7.3)+(30/91)(X)=4.4 or X = 3.3degs. So if Nov. averages at least +3.3degs. we have another record on the books. Right now I do not even see a semblance of BN until 2nd week of Dec. Canada and the rest of the US looks cold by then, but East Coast is a stubborn brat and clings to the heat. Curses, foiled again. The east probably has warmed faster than any part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 My thinking is this winter will be like 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 22 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Pardon my ignorance, what is the SON abbreviation? It seems obvious you are talking about a Nov warmth record but please elaborate Sept, Oct, Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The ensembles are showing a strongly +AO for early November. But you can see that the Aleutian ridge is much stronger and further north than is usually the case for a +AO pattern in November. Typical November +AO composite The ensembles are warmer than normal as far as the eye can see for November. Just amazing how the last several falls (Sept, Oct, Nov) have been insanely above normal. Even December’s have gone warm. Had it not been for the very -WPO cooling things down last December, it would have been another epic torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: My thinking is this winter will be like 07-08. Based off what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Just for perspective, that was 2 years ago. I agree the warm weather is alarming, but let’s keep perspective Feb 2015 was a brutal month. And March 2017 was quite cold if I recall. Most alarming is December. That seems to have dropped off the winter grid completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Based off what? The most important is the October warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Euro has a deep trough in the east in long range. I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st snow event on the coast in late November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a deep trough in the east in long range. I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st snow event on the coast in late November Cold in Canada and a -EPO does suggest the possibility that some cold may spill Eastward from time to time in November however other factors should keep us mostly AN to at times well AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a deep trough in the east in long range. I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st snow event on the coast in late November It could be overdone and/or transient. I'd like to see the EPS and also the forecast teleconnections coming more in line to have much confidence in a prolonged period of cold in the East. Some of the long-range guidance is quite warm for the close of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 GFS sayz freezing mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It could be overdone and/or transient. I'd like to see the EPS and also the forecast teleconnections coming more in line to have much confidence in a prolonged period of cold in the East. Some of the long-range guidance is quite warm for the close of November. End of November is really long range, I would'nt count on any guidance more than 2 weeks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 49 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: End of November is really long range, I would'nt count on any guidance more than 2 weeks off. I agree. I don't have a great deal of confidence beyond mid-November. I just noted that some of the very long-range guidance shows a warm close to November. Much can still change between now and then, though I think the month will wind up quite a bit warmer than normal (probably by 3° or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 November should be +3 to +4. This looks to be the coldest December in the east in quite some time though. -2 to -4 with well above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 36 in Smithtown. No frost yet, still dew. And as usual, I wasn’t prepared for the cold outside of the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 Current temp down to 37 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 First 8 days of Nov. off to a great start at just +7degs., as it averages 58degs.---with a drop off at the end. We'll see how far beyond the 8th. that goes. Really, over the next 45 days most areas in North America look cold, except around here. Still hope for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 @rgwp96 Only 34° here. I think the clouds hurt us. No October Freeze this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Couple of nice events upcoming worth keeping an eye on, especially for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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