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Weekend Zombie Morph Storm Discobs


nw baltimore wx

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Seems like the pressure, and the subsequent winds, are lining up for a bust.  Latest meso analysis has it as a 990 low off Lewes, DE and I'm having a really hard time believing this thing gets to even sub 985 by the time it's near Wilkes-Barre.  Really disappointing because we've been devoid of any remotely interesting weather since the snowstorm in January 2016.

Ehhh -- I was getting pretty solid 1-2mb/hr pressure falls before leaving the office last hour. Was down to 991mb when I left (KNHK). That looks pretty on track to me. Low is still consolidating offshore of the lower MD eastern shore. Mesoanal is a bit too far north compared to obs.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS had this screwzone days ago though, right? 

Yea, there's been a lot of op runs showing precip mins moving around the area. I think the euro will bust low in this case honeslty.  

Eta: gfs was pretty terrible in the med to short range with this storm. Euro/ukie will likely score the win with track and strength. Gfs was very late catching on. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

As long as the weenie gust potential is met, I'm fine with a precip bust. 

We should be good there. At least in the 40's. LWX going 50-55 is bullish but I hope they're right of course. 

I've said all along that this is a good setup to mix down on the backside of the low. Ej is cancelling so that means everything is on track. 

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there's been a lot of op runs showing precip mins moving around the area. I think the euro will bust low in this case honeslty.  

Eta: gfs was pretty terrible in the med to short range with this storm. Euro/ukie will likely score the win with track and strength. Gfs was very late catching on. 

Euro certainly had the dynamics better.

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Looking at LWX radar (Base Reflectivity and CC) the returns over the WV Panhandle and Western MD is likely snow or at least starting out as snow.  Bedford, PA just flipped to light snow and Garrett County is down to 32/32 with 0.75 mile visibility.



Not shocked. I'm just seeing if any flakes make their way down to Winchester. That was my threshold for making this an interesting winter event to track.
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