mitchnick Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: HRRR shifting the precip distribution back to more widespread through the region instead of streaks. Matches well with radar trends. HRRR will have it figured out by tomorrow. As you can tell, not a huge fan. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: HRRR will have it figured out by tomorrow. As you can tell, not a huge fan. Lol If we actually get a snowstorm this winter, I sincerely hope we remember how bad the hrrrrr is in synoptic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 radar looks decent for a remainder of the afternoon/early evening rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Front must be through Burke. Winds are out of the NW and the temp is dropping. Lots of leaves falling now, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 water vapor loop looks pretty nice as well... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If we actually get a snowstorm this winter, I sincerely hope we remember how bad the hrrrrr is in synoptic events. I do! Hence my post. But because it comes out every hour, it is addictive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If we actually get a snowstorm this winter, I sincerely hope we remember how bad the hrrrrr is in synoptic events. It seems to perform best in hindcast mode. lol Front just came through. NW breezes picking up. There are going to be a lot of miserable skins fans in a few hours. The weather should be bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It seems to perform best in hindcast mode. lol Front just came through. NW breezes picking up. There are going to be a lot of miserable skins fans in a few hours. The weather should be bad too. Nice that my crap team played Thursday night and won 40-0. Now I get to just sit back and watch games and not care, and my blood pressure is low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Euro just cut my precip in half. lol. Dead center in the screwzone. Less than .8 now. ETA: Bad panel was loading. 1.6 again so same as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 More interested in wind than rain. Rain is pretty boring even if we need it. It takes a TON of rain to make for "interesting rain" otherwise it's just H20 coming from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro just cut my precip in half. lol. Dead center in the screwzone. Less than .8 now. ETA: Bad panel was loading. 1.6 again so same as last night. If this was a snowstorm, you'd be 5 posted for that one. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If this was a snowstorm, you'd be 5 posted for that one. Lol I'm definitely getting 5 posted now....I was right the first time. Wx.us doesn't load properly. I'm going to quit while I'm behind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Front coming thru my neighborhood now. Winds be and temp drop of 3 degrees in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm definitely getting 5 posted now....I was right the first time. Wx.us doesn't load properly. I'm going to quit while I'm behind... The Euro has been windshield wiper-ing the past day between the 12Z run and 0Z runs. Low over NYC then west of NYC in the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I'm really disappointed at the general atmosphere right now. It's easing into general bland again.... there are times when it's no problem to muster up a wind/snow event in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, gymengineer said: The Euro has been windshield wiper-ing the past day between the 12Z run and 0Z run. It has. All guidance has to some extent. These multiple component setups with rapid intensification are super hard to get right. Always expects surprises (good and bad). I honestly don't care about precip anyways. 1 or 2 or 3" of rain makes no difference to me. It's all about the wind and the "feel" of the storm as we move into the overnight. I'm sure pretty much everyone feels the same way. Ukie and euro are divided on qpf now. 12z Ukie was about 2" for DCA. Euro is half of that. The weird thing is the 2 ops agree on track and strength for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Soaking rain now. The ground had dried; half-hour ago I was outside working - getting the shrubbery trimmed and readied for decorating. Then a wall of rain moved in. Radar looks good for rain. Odd to see so much yellow in the Shen. Valley rather than it BR/East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It has. All guidance has to some extent. These multiple component setups with rapid intensification are super hard to get right. Always expects surprises (good and bad). I honestly don't care about precip anyways. 1 or 2 or 3" of rain makes no difference to me. It's all about the wind and the "feel" of the storm as we move into the overnight. I'm sure pretty much everyone feels the same way. Ukie and euro are divided on qpf now. 12z Ukie was about 2" for DCA. Euro is half of that. The weird thing is the 2 ops agree on track and strength for the most part. It looks like some areas mainly in higher elevations may get close to my standard of 58+ mph gusts. I like the current radar/satellite trends atm. Currently hoping for some gusts at least into the 50s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 63.8 with an east wind, don't think the front has quite made it through yet, at least up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Rain has moved back in here. Looks like a wall of water on radar. Temp has been pretty much steady here all day at 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 58/56 .21 so far. Good enough. I'm not gready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 47F. .54" so far. Radar looks like a lot more to come. Too bad this wasn't 2 months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Moderate rain moving in. Barometer down to 29.46", the lowest October reading since Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Have picked up 0.01” since the overnight 0.09”. Don’t know if the ground can handle it. edit - storm total of 0.01” at Dulles so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>054-506- 300330- /O.CON.KLWX.WI.Y.0015.171030T0200Z-171030T1400Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY... * TIMING...late this evening through mid-morning Monday. The strongest winds will be overnight. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts around 50 to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 50 to 55 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 The dryslot is showing signs of filling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Bout to go for a run along the river, hopefully we start getting some good gusts. It's storms like these that in Battery Park City in NYC we'd get gusts easily at 60+, especially against the windows of our apartment on the 37th floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Pouring out there right now...Just hit .5" for the day. Breezy.... Beautiful evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Definite increase in the winds of the last 30 minutes. Down to 54/53. Gusts around 20 now. Gonna be a loud night. Let's see if there are some surprises. Over all it looks pretty good just looking at the radar presentation. .30 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Temp down to 44F. Over 1" and still raining. Just gentle breezes to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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