dailylurker Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I lucked out here in western AA county with the first round. I was surprised to see around .40" in my gauge. I was right on the western edge of that first precip batch. I'd be a mess (but happy) if this was snow lol. Looking forward to the coastal storm later. Might be a good day to break out the special brownie my 72 year old neighbor gave me. She makes the best treats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: I lucked out here in western AA county with the first round. I was surprised to see around .40" in my gauge. I was right on the western edge of that first precip batch. I'd be a mess (but happy) if this was snow lol. Looking forward to the coastal storm later. A little less to your ne with .28" at BWI. It is getting warmer and stickier out as the dp is up to 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Interesting. This is no surprise to me at all. Our best storms do not take this path regardless of what the models spit out. The margin for error is slim for storms that blow up to our NE. Waiting for wrap around? It doesn’t happen much regardless of snow or rain. My zone forecast last night had me at a high of 59 with falling temps and rain. It’s 69 with mostly cloudy skies. We generally don't do wrap around well, but the big storms do get it done, and this is somewhat into that category. There will be still be decent rains around later today into the night, but some of those super soaker Euro runs we had seen are unlikely to verify on the whole (especially over northern VA), although Bob Chill correctly points out that banding will lead to localized winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Lol ok now no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, high risk said: We generally don't do wrap around well, but the big storms do get it done, and this is somewhat into that category. There will be still be decent rains around later today into the night, but some of those super soaker Euro runs we had seen are unlikely to verify on the whole (especially over northern VA), although Bob Chill correctly points out that banding will lead to localized winners. We usually suck with wraparound stuff for sure but usually it's because the track is offshore so distance from center of circ is much further than today. If a sub 980 into jersey/eastern pa can't get it done then I'll never bite again. Lol. I never believed the supersoaker runs. I set my bar at 1.5" and even that might be tough to hit. Most interested in the winds of course. Rain is boring. Trees falling isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: Wow, much better luck here not far to your west. Had some good downpours after midnight, and am up to 0.55" now. Baro down to 29.58" It just could never quite reach mby...and when it did I was just unlucky. Up to .06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I wonder if the TS is affecting development more than was initially expected. The wind gusts tonight do not look as impressive from the newer modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We usually suck with wraparound stuff for sure but usually it's because the track is offshore so distance from center of circ is much further than today. If a sub 980 into jersey/eastern pa can't get it done then I'll never bite again. Lol. I never believed the supersoaker runs. I set my bar at 1.5" and even that might be tough to hit. Most interested in the winds of course. Rain is boring. Trees falling isn't. Y'all need to stop all this tree falling talk lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Y'all need to stop all this tree falling talk lol. You may want to consider ignoring the shelter in place advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We want trees falling in our backyards, not yours Agree with the other posters--I've punted on a rainfall jackpot but it will be fun to see the deform develop and the winds kick up. I really just want to have some good wind driven rain. I can’t stay up late enough to experience it hiRes NAM still showing several hours of 40kt+ gusts overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: We want trees falling in our backyards, not yours Agree with the other posters--I've punted on a rainfall jackpot but it will be fun to see the deform develop and the winds kick up. I really just want to have some good wind driven rain. I have been here 12 years and luckily only once has a big tree fallen near the house. That was during Irene. Trees are mostly oak and I have a well drained soil so they are not shallow rooted. I think it has been pretty clear for a while the heaviest rains would be NE of our region. I was surprised to get as much as I did this morning. Even so the deform zone should feature widespread moderate rain for several hours, with some embedded heavier stuff. I will probably dry slot here later in the game as the low tracks just to my east and then goes inland north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I had my heart all set on a nice dangerous drive up to MGM this afternoon in steady moderate rain. This was not to be. Only sporadic light showers and occasional drizzle then ending by 8pm tonight. I love heavy rain on 495 along with trucks putting big water on my windshield while rogue cars speed by at 90 Mph just inches from my car!!!!!! What a rush! Alas, not to be. Now, if I were in New York tomorrow where all the fun will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 ^lol Jeb is a treasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Front has made it through..61f at 7am. 53.5f currently with a light breeze out of the NNW. .23" in the bucket... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 So we’ve cancelled? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Getting pulled westward now. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Current radar matching up well to the south with the 15z hrrr. Hrrr isn't picking up on the frontal forcing precip pushing into Moco. Precip coming up from RIC area should blossom and fill nicely over the next 3 hours or so. Weather looks TERRIBLE for the skins game. lol. Might help them because they've been kinda terrible too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That low is really starting to go to town. Down to 998mb per mesoanalysis. You all have to get into the spirit of the season. Us spirits like to say it's "morphing." But seriously, this map looks much better for the demise of whatever is left of Philippe compared to last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 All of the frontal rainfall has moved north, none left for us. Big surprise there. Pennsylvania, one of the better-known rain hawgs, hogged all of it for just themselves. The Delmarva also hogged heavy rain overnight. Now there is none left for us. Always remember one thing with storms with lots and lots of moving parts: Complex setups dont work out for us. We get clouds then windex. Skip the complex moving parts setup, give me a standard slow moving front, a half inch of rain, and I'm happy. Let me get one thing straight: We are depending on a coastal cyclogenesis for rain chances? In a La Nina autumn? In October? Back to the beer and the barbecue. We can still party even if its cloudy. Rain chance in Dale City: 10 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 The precip coming up from RIC should encounter some extra forcing/lift from the front. Whomever is under that should get some heavy precip for a time. Probably FedEx field. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ukie and Gfs both with a 960s low Enjoy it, New York! New Yorkers, please take a rainy jebwalk just for me, while I enjoy my dry clouds, beer, and barbecue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Y'all need to stop all this tree falling talk lol. Yep, I have about the same view, minus the fact that I have zero flat land on the 3.5 acres lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie and Gfs both with a 960s low Ukie is west again. Right into the delmarva now. lol. Legit backside precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 On that Ukie map, what's the difference between the red and blue 540 lines? ETA: Nevermind. I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: On that Ukie map, what's the difference between the red and blue 540 lines? Red is heights and blue is old school thicknesses. 540 thicknesses usually = a column that supports snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Red is heights and blue is old school thicknesses. 540 thicknesses usually = a column that supports snow Thanks. But it's the blue 540 on those maps that supports snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Thanks. But it's the blue 540 on those maps that supports snow, right? Generally speaking...yes. Ukie doesn't drill down like meso models so it's more broad brushed. I think it's because of resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Yep, I have about the same view, minus the fact that I have zero flat land on the 3.5 acres lol. I have 6 acres and no hills lol. Around here we have gentle undulations in places. Amazing how much flatter it is down on the lower shore though. That is pancake flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 16z hrrr has the low almost on Philly...keep backing in baby so we can maximize effects. HRRR shifting the precip distribution back to more widespread through the region instead of streaks. Matches well with radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have 6 acres and no hills lol. Around here we have gentle undulations in places. Amazing how much flatter it is down on the lower shore though. That is pancake flat. Nothing 'gentle' here. Probably 80-100 foot elevation change on my property. Just glancing around, it is SUPER nice to see it either snowing or snow on ground on the traffic and resort cams in WV and far SW VA, mostly above 3500 foot and to see snow listed in the hourly obs on NWS at a couple spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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