Sunday's Screaming Southeaster

[dendrite]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

At least it wasn’t some random 23G93 like you sometimes see with faulty mesonet obs.

It was sustained 68 when it hit the peak gust, so at least in the realm of possibility.

There was also a good pressure jump going on, from 982.4 to 984 over 13 minutes. It fits meteoroligically speaking.

Yeah it happened right as that boundary came through...pressure tendency change, wind shift, temp drop, etc.

Of course he could do what Black Cat used to do and apply an offset to his raw readings. Only he knows for sure, but I agree that I like seeing a 68G92. He was running a lot of high sustained speeds which shows you just how good his exposure was.

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The 90 on the Cape seems a little suspicious to me. 

1 93 and 1 95 separate sites

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, j24vt said:

Picture of a friend's house in Stowe, VT.  Tree hit just to the left of the peak and slide down the left side of the house, poked a hole in the living room ceiliing, and landed between the two cars.

scary stuff

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

Yeah...I mean, we did see it at Taunton...their ASOS reported that rogue 58 knots when everyone else kind of close to them was in the high 40s to near 50. There was definitely some pockets. But the 93mph gust is literally like 25-30 knots more than any ASOS station on the Cape...a little different than only being 10 knots more. You can plausibly explain it....more exposed site and more ideal without any buildings, etc, etc...then add on that they got into a rogue region of better mixing which adds another 10+ knots on top of their already higher baseline due to better siting....so you can definitely explain, but I think it is smart to scrutinize such readings. As someone who has done QC for weather data professionally in the past, that reading def catches the skeptical eye.

Again there was another station nearby with a 95. Head of BHO thinks its legit, with an 81 Comincut and Warwick RI up the Bay and not on the open ocean I have zero issue believing those 2 readings

Charles Orloff‏ @charlesorloff  Oct 30

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@NWSBoston Amazing wind speed measured with R.M. Young Aerovane on Menauhant YC, Waquoit

 

Charles Orloff‏ @charlesorloff  Oct 30

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Replying to @capecodweather @MattNBCBoston @NWSBoston

Menauhant Y.C., E. Falmouth, 95 mph on extremely reliable R M Young Aerovane at same time. Also at exact time of lowest pressure.

[Ginx snewx]

this matches up well with the Westerly 67 before power failed and Rockports 72, certainly gusts were missed in between stations, inertia gravity waves in spots. Gusts were insane at the edge. I know it was as hairy as it gets in mia casa

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Again there was another station nearby with a 95. Head of BHO thinks its legit, with an 81 Comincut and Warwick RI up the Bay and not on the open ocean I have zero issue believing those 2 readings

Charles Orloff‏ @charlesorloff  Oct 30

More

@NWSBoston Amazing wind speed measured with R.M. Young Aerovane on Menauhant YC, Waquoit

 

Charles Orloff‏ @charlesorloff  Oct 30

More

Replying to @capecodweather @MattNBCBoston @NWSBoston

Menauhant Y.C., E. Falmouth, 95 mph on extremely reliable R M Young Aerovane at same time. Also at exact time of lowest pressure.

I didn't say it was fake....but I am always skeptical at first when there's outlier readings. Anyone should be. I would have liked to see something higher out of the FMH ASOS considering it is also close by, but at least the other 95mph gust gives it some support.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't say it was fake....but I am always skeptical at first when there's outlier readings. Anyone should be. I would have liked to see something higher out of the FMH ASOS considering it is also close by, but at least the other 95mph gust gives it some support.

yea I was just pointing out that 2 outliers seem unlikely, its easy to see with the  damage  patterns around here how some gusts were less in nearby areas

[CoastalWx]

I also saw 80 in Duxbury too. Like Will, nobody said it was fake, but I think it's ok to raise suspicion. 

[dendrite]

One thing on FMH...it doesn't report peak wind. The 20 min obs you get are the current gust speed. It looks like when they switched over from manned obs to automated it became a precip discriminating AWOS.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

One thing on FMH...it doesn't report peak wind. The 20 min obs you get are the current gust speed. It looks like when they switched over from manned obs to automated it became a precip discriminating AWOS.

That seems like it could make a considerable difference.  So the max wind from there is just by chance the highest wind seen at any given observation?  Seems useless at 20 min intervals.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That seems like it could make a considerable difference.  So the max wind from there is just by chance the highest wind seen at any given observation?  Seems useless at 20 min intervals.

Quote

Wind – The first observation reported by the AWOS is the wind speed and direction. The wind speed sensors are located on the top of the thirty-foot tower. If there are trees, hangars or other obstructions near the site, the sensor may pick up readings that are
slightly different than what the pilot encounters. In gusty winds, a pilot on
approach five miles away may see things differently. Wind data is calculated
(as are all AWOS readings) according to government furnished algorithms.
Wind speed-readings are taken every second and a running 2-minute average
is computed and updated every 5 seconds. If the wind speed average is less
than 3 knots, the wind will be reported as calm. If the 2-minute average wind
speed equals or exceeds 9 knots and the difference between the highest 5-
second average and the 2-minute average equals or exceeds 5 knots, gusts are reported. Wind direction readings are taken every second and a 2-minute average is again computed every 5 seconds and reported to the nearest ten degrees magnetic. 

 

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

"In gusty winds, a pilot on
approach five miles away may see things differently."

 

No phucking sh*t. He's also over 2,00f0t ft up at that point.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

"In gusty winds, a pilot on
approach five miles away may see things differently."

 

No phucking sh*t. He's also over 2,00f0t ft up at that point.

Ha. Almost left that off because I had a feeling you may get heated.

https://iowadot.gov/aviation/managersandsponsors/Resources/2-AWOS Guide.pdf

[dendrite]

Haven't looked at river gauge levels, but holy crap. The Merrimack in Concord seems really high. It's up past the bike paths at the Manchester St exit and there are spots on 93 where it's only feet from coming up near the shoulder.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Haven't looked at river gauge levels, but holy crap. The Merrimack in Concord seems really high. It's up past the bike paths at the Manchester St exit and there are spots on 93 where it's only feet from coming up near the shoulder.

CONN3 is actually above action stage (and tickling back up away from the forecast). We've pretty much gone from record low flows a couple weeks ago to record high flows for the date now.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Haven't looked at river gauge levels, but holy crap. The Merrimack in Concord seems really high. It's up past the bike paths at the Manchester St exit and there are spots on 93 where it's only feet from coming up near the shoulder.

Didn't you tell me yesterday that the PS flooding was NBD

[dendrite]

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't you tell me yesterday that the PS flooding was NBD

Well it's always a big deal, but it has happened many times there. My point is that 99.9% of the classes are held up on the hill portion of the campus which is perfectly dry. The arena is what takes the flooding hit

[SJonesWX]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Haven't looked at river gauge levels, but holy crap. The Merrimack in Concord seems really high. It's up past the bike paths at the Manchester St exit and there are spots on 93 where it's only feet from coming up near the shoulder.

its high all the way down through Manch, too. like spring run-off high.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well it's always a big deal, but it has happened many times there. My point is that 99.9% of the classes are held up on the hill portion of the campus which is perfectly dry. The arena is what takes the flooding hit

Got it. So you are saying forgettable?

[CoastalWx]

I already forgot about it. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I already forgot about it. 

Congrats

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Got it. So you are saying forgettable?

To a weather weenie, no. To Joe Public, yeah. 

[Hoth]

Interestingly the neighborhood about a mile north of me in Hamden appears to have suffered much more tree damage. There were a bunch of mature uprooted trees, including a large healthy oak that fell on a house and effed up its peak and dormers. I didn't see any uprooting in my neighborhood, just large sheared off branches and upper chunks of trunks. Must've been a highly localized gust max or something. Still, nothing compared to the pics out of VT and Maine.

[wackymann]

On 10/30/2017 at 9:48 AM, wackymann said:

Lost power in Chelmsford around 12:30 AM - interrupted me watching the World Series game.  I'm guessing it will be at least a couple of days before we get power back after scanning the outage map.  I will probably be firing up the generator tonight!  I'm glad I fired it up and changed the oil a few months ago...

Finally got power back late Wednesday afternoon.  It was getting pretty cold in the house!  On Tuesday evening, my generator's pull cord broke on the first pull, so I had to spend 2 hours finding a new rope and installing it in the dark.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, wackymann said:

Finally got power back late Wednesday afternoon.  It was getting pretty cold in the house!  On Tuesday evening, my generator's pull cord broke on the first pull, so I had to spend 2 hours finding a new rope and installing it in the dark.

Lol that happened to me during Sandy, totally rigged up a temp cord out of clothesline. You do what ya got to do. Had generator tuned and rechecked in August,  ran perfectly. Here's to hoping it never is needed again.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Interestingly the neighborhood about a mile north of me in Hamden appears to have suffered much more tree damage. There were a bunch of mature uprooted trees, including a large healthy oak that fell on a house and effed up its peak and dormers. I didn't see any uprooting in my neighborhood, just large sheared off branches and upper chunks of trunks. Must've been a highly localized gust max or something. Still, nothing compared to the pics out of VT and Maine.

Consistent with my experience,  banding features like outer bands of a cane. Enhanced by inertia gravity waves.

[tamarack]

21 hours ago, dryslot said:

Useless white pines.

I know some sawmill managers who might not agree. 
Of course, a tree with relatively weak wood that's often taller than the other kinds of trees (especially the bare-limbed hardwoods) is always going to be vulnerable.  1938 (and the recent book of that title) clearly illustrate that fact.

Co-worker from Mt. Vernon, which has lots of pines, still w/o power.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I know some sawmill managers who might not agree. 
Of course, a tree with relatively weak wood that's often taller than the other kinds of trees (especially the bare-limbed hardwoods) is always going to be vulnerable.  1938 (and the recent book of that title) clearly illustrate that fact.

Co-worker from Mt. Vernon, which has lots of pines, still w/o power.

The mills like them no doub't for the pine, The acidic needles can be of use as well for acidic bushes as mulch, So they're not totally useless.

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, tamarack said:

I know some sawmill managers who might not agree. 
Of course, a tree with relatively weak wood that's often taller than the other kinds of trees (especially the bare-limbed hardwoods) is always going to be vulnerable.  1938 (and the recent book of that title) clearly illustrate that fact.

Co-worker from Mt. Vernon, which has lots of pines, still w/o power.

How the hell do they get to be that tall and out compete other trees when they are so vulnerable? 

The lower elevations of Stowe Village (say 1,200ft to the valley bottom at 700ft) are filled with these things and although there was some hardwood damage, the vast majority of the issues from this storm was definitely due to white pines. 

They are massive trees and when they come down they create issues.  Those things don't mess around.  Mix these with homes, powerlines, roads.  That's why this storm was such a big disruption.

Local mountain bike clubs started using drones to assess the damage and are finding micro-burst style damage, almost entirely in white pine forests.

Still is pretty crazy how localized, convective downburst winds can clear parking lot sized areas throughout the woods.

 

Note the Mountain Bike trail running through here...good idea to survey the bike trails with drone as it would be a slow slog on foot through the downed trees.  Photos by Grant Wieler and Cady Hills Forest facebook page.

9 hours ago, dryslot said:

The mills like them no doub't for the pine, The acidic needles can be of use as well for acidic bushes as mulch, So they're not totally useless.

I've heard on the Mountain Bike channels they are asking folks NOT to cut up and clear the wood.  They have had a lot of interest from harvesters and logging companies to come in and remove the blow-down areas and more acute damage zones....especially since its all in the valley and easily accessible from nearby roads.

Those companies are quite intrigued by the opportunity to take a whole bunch of full-length downed trees and obviously if they are cut up they are of very little use to those groups.  Good opportunistic move by timber harvesters to help out. 

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How the hell do they get to be that tall and out compete other trees when they are so vulnerable? 

The lower elevations of Stowe Village (say 1,200ft to the valley bottom at 700ft) are filled with these things and although there was some hardwood damage, the vast majority of the issues from this storm was definitely due to white pines. 

They are massive trees and when they come down they create issues.  Those things don't mess around.  Mix these with homes, powerlines, roads.  That's why this storm was such a big disruption.

Local mountain bike clubs started using drones to assess the damage and are finding micro-burst style damage, almost entirely in white pine forests.

Still is pretty crazy how localized, convective downburst winds can clear parking lot sized areas throughout the woods.

Note the Mountain Bike trail running through here...good idea to survey the bike trails with drone as it would be a slow slog on foot through the downed trees.  Photos by Grant Wieler and Cady Hills Forest facebook page.

I've heard on the Mountain Bike channels they are asking folks NOT to cut up and clear the wood.  They have had a lot of interest from harvesters and logging companies to come in and remove the blow-down areas and more acute damage zones....especially since its all in the valley and easily accessible from nearby roads.

Those companies are quite intrigued by the opportunity to take a whole bunch of full-length downed trees and obviously if they are cut up they are of very little use to those groups.  Good opportunistic move by timber harvesters to help out. 

We're pretty susceptible overall to windthrows up here. Those pines are top heavy to begin with, with a pretty shallow root system for one. Plus once you take one down, the subsequent neighboring trees haven't adapted to taking the brunt on the wind stress, and they come down too.