Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 No Scooter this storm isnt over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 We power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 That part floods easily and it's happened before. Most of the campus is up on the hill and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Um look back in this thread on Friday Kev posted Fishers map Can't find it with all the selfie's he's taking. He had some bad tweets. Ask Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 hours ago, dendrite said: That part floods easily and it's happened before. Most of the campus is up on the hill and dry. Yeah that's not good, but nothing new there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 hours ago, dendrite said: That part floods easily and it's happened before. Most of the campus is up on the hill and dry. My Daughter had class yesterday no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 hours ago, dendrite said: We power. Happy for you both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Kids have no school...again. Some roads in town still inaccessible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Scarborough, ME - Olde Mill Brook Neighborhood - still no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 9 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Also if it happens in Tolland, it happens everywhere. I don't think God's Country was anywhere near HWW. ORH up on the exposed southeast face didn't even hit HWW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH up on the exposed southeast face didn't even hit HWW. I still don't understand that with those 925mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Not sure we'll get power today. More trees down on other roads and haven't seen power trucks anywhere in the areaSent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I still don't understand that with those 925mb winds. Its hard to mix it down on the southerly component. The best LLJ also was a little east and some of those enhanced mesolows may have stole a little thunder from areas further west. I know we had mentioned it as a possibility...that if we got a little mesolow out east that to the west of it back in the interior could underperform a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I still don't understand that with those 925mb winds. Well it's possible 925mb was also located higher up vertically. IOW, the slope of the 925mb pressure surface might be 2500' above Boston. but could be a few hundred feet higher over ORH. Why? Because SE winds upslope. It may be tough to visualize, but this can cause the pressure surface to extend up a little higher than, say, the coast. It's the reason why ORH can upslope on erly flow. You sort of push up the boundary layer a tad when you do this. But naturally winds are stronger the higher up you go, so KORH has a much better shot of those stronger winds, then downtown ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Maybe someone with better weather knowledge than myself (which is everyone on this forum) can tell me the significance (if at all) of the 130 a.m. time frame. that seems to.be when the wind gusts were peaking and man trees went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Its hard to mix it down on the southerly component. The best LLJ also was a little east and some of those enhanced mesolows may have stole a little thunder from areas further west. I know we had mentioned it as a possibility...that if we got a little mesolow out east that to the west of it back in the interior could underperform a little. Yeah ORH was probably a tad too far west for that core too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Just now, Cold Miser said: Maybe someone with better weather knowledge than myself (which is everyone on this forum) can tell me the significance (if at all) of the 130 a.m. time frame. that seems to.be when the wind gusts were peaking and man trees went down. That's about when the core of the Man Jet went over your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 KTOL with stronger winds than ORH. Probably because we warm sectored and LLJ passed overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 265,000 Maine residents still without power. Many schools are closed for the third consecutive day. We remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 After a week of chaos, generators, chainsaws and cleanup it was nice to awaken to peace and quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it's possible 925mb was also located higher up vertically. IOW, the slope of the 925mb pressure surface might be 2500' above Boston. but could be a few hundred feet higher over ORH. Why? Because SE winds upslope. It may be tough to visualize, but this can cause the pressure surface to extend up a little higher than, say, the coast. It's the reason why ORH can upslope on erly flow. You sort of push up the boundary layer a tad when you do this. But naturally winds are stronger the higher up you go, so KORH has a much better shot of those stronger winds, then downtown ORH. Oh I totally get it and know it well...great explanation. That's what happens in Stowe on the east side. We never get wind out of the southeast, because the low level jet is rising up and over us to clear Mansfield a few miles west (it's always dead calm even with a 60+kt jet at 900mb). Then the western slopes get it as it drops over the ridge and heads down to a lower elevation on the other side. Thats why I'm still shocked at what happened. 10/10 times I would've forecast the winds would be 1500-2000ft and above due to that upslope flow coming up the east slope. There's no reason why it should've been crashing down into the slope instead of rising up and over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh I totally get it and know it well...great explanation. That's what happens in Stowe on the east side. We never get wind out of the southeast, because the low level jet is rising up and over us to clear Mansfield a few miles west (it's always dead calm even with a 60+kt jet at 900mb). Then the western slopes get it as it drops over the ridge and heads down to a lower elevation on the other side. Thats why I'm still shocked at what happened. 10/10 times I would've forecast the winds would be 1500-2000ft and above due to that upslope flow coming up the east slope. There's no reason why it should've been crashing down into the slope instead of rising up and over it. I think perhaps the strength of the LLJ and perhaps the thermodynamics of the boundary layer allowed for the hydraulic jump to be near the east side of Mansfield. If you think of it, this was still an October event. You lack the low level cold hanging around and keeping the LLJ aloft over the picnic tables like you have in winter...when we normally have these events with crazy LLJs. We had a 5SD event occur and it occurred in October. I have to think the thermal profile played a role here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 CMP's estimate for restoration of power in my 'hood is Saturday night at 10 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think perhaps the strength of the LLJ and perhaps the thermodynamics of the boundary layer allowed for the hydraulic jump to be near the east side of Mansfield. If you think of it, this was still an October event. You lack the low level cold hanging around and keeping the LLJ aloft over the picnic tables like you have in winter...when we normally have these events with crazy LLJs. We had a 5SD event occur and it occurred in October. I have to think the thermal profile played a role here. Yeah I was also looking at when the primary Low over NY was bombing out and tracking. Given the track and strength, we were in a favorable east side (of the low) location. I don't know how that meso-low in ESNE factored in but the track of the primary low over the Adirondacks in hindsight looks good here. Also interesting that strong low plowed right over the Catskills and through the high terrain of the Adirondacks on reanalysis.... so for all those times someone says it won't track over mountains, chalk this one up to that being wrong. Another factor here was probably the dry slot between the best forcing. I mean we got 2" instead of 4-7" further east. You had lift going through EMass up into NH/ME...and then strong lift on the west side of the main low in NY State. In the middle we were more "showery" and almost cellular in nature. I wonder if those splitting areas of lift that left a drier (weird to say 2" is a dryslot lol) area in central/northern VT allowed for better wind to mix down. Maybe that's why SVT didn't really see much wind damage despite favorable downslope plus other areas where folks live in high terrain at 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I was also looking at when the primary Low over NY was bombing out and tracking. Given the track and strength, we were in a favorable east side (of the low) location. I don't know how that meso-low in ESNE factored in but the track of the primary low over the Adirondacks in hindsight looks good here. Also interesting that strong low plowed right over the Catskills and through the high terrain of the Adirondacks on reanalysis.... so for all those times someone says it won't track over mountains, chalk this one up to that being wrong. Another factor here was probably the dry slot between the best forcing. I mean we got 2" instead of 4-7" further east. You had lift going through EMass up into NH/ME...and then strong lift on the west side of the main low in NY State. In the middle we were more "showery" and almost cellular in nature. I wonder if those splitting areas of lift that left a drier (weird to say 2" is a dryslot lol) area in central/northern VT allowed for better wind to mix down. Maybe that's why SVT didn't really see much wind damage despite favorable downslope plus other areas where folks live in high terrain at 950mb. It might help. Precip can help keep the boundary layer stable. Sometimes the smallest nuances in atmospheric profiles mean the difference of 20mph or 60+. Like, you normally really come close to getting a blown down like you did...only the lower levels were a a degree too cold too allow mixing. All it takes is a little improvement and boom...you go from 0-60 real quick. It's never linear...it either happens or it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's about when the core of the Man Jet went over your hood. 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: KTOL with stronger winds than ORH. Probably because we warm sectored and LLJ passed overhead Makes sense. Was quite manly indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Anybody have any links or captures of velocity data from OKX or BOX from 0100 to 0600 10/30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Makes sense. Was quite manly indeed. Tropfold at the time too, going to pour over velocity data to look if there was a possible low topped spinner too, just saw some tops of trees zipped from our observation Tower.Looking way in the distance towards 201 in North Stonington. They got smoked up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said: CMP's estimate for restoration of power in my 'hood is Saturday night at 10 pm. How do you know this? Is it on the CMP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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