Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty impressive. Obv just above our heads in CT: Sort of an obscure thing but ...heh, can we imagine the cloud motion with that? holy g-mosis, those streets are gonna be moving N at ludicrous speeds... I also think that if we end up on the east side of an inland cutting coastal bomb, with rapidly deepening heights, while that much mid level mechanical power/wind max actually cuts E of that 925mb jet, that's a precious set up and I'd be worried about rain wrapped issues - put it that way. Sinuous squall ribbons along with small vortex embedded...egh. The other thing, people are hammering on the GFS - don't. Your wrong... firstly, philosophically, ur foisting trophies before anything's happened - duh. But, I don't believe the objective Meteorological inspection sees why the GFS solutions can't happen. The 06z is not an altogether absurd idea in leaving any west Caribbean tropical entity to its own devices ...swept out to sea by the subtending baroclinic axis running east of Florida like that. It may prove that the previously preferred model solutions that for all intents and purposes sucked that feature up and in to phase a kind of transient hyper hybrid bomb were (gee) a little over zealous? hello - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 12z NAM has 3"-5" of rain in Western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 4 hours ago, Cold Miser said: I hope you're referring to sustained winds and not the random gust. Nope. Including gusts. We rarely get sustained high winds...not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nope. Including gusts. We rarely get sustained high winds...not sure why Friction. Sustained high wind is just very tough in our topography and vegetation. Some open corn field that was just harvested in the Midwest does sustained wind much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 NAM moves to Euro Differnce is it’s got big winds on the backside instead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just give me 5-10 gusts over 65mph. That’s all I’ll ask Good luck with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 GFS will be west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Southeast is my most exposed direction, so maybe this will be decent here. Non-hurricane wind event is about my least favored violent weather though. Not a big fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Pretty good blow ext ern ma and esp cstl ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good blow ext ern ma and esp cstl ME. Should be ripping around daybreak here, right? I may need to head back to Portland Head Light for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good blow ext ern ma and esp cstl ME. Impressive just off the deck at 925mb right along the coast here into the coastal plain and DE ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Should be ripping around daybreak here, right? I may need to head back to Portland Head Light for this one Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: Should be ripping around daybreak here, right? I may need to head back to Portland Head Light for this one Looks like 03z-09z it will be ripping in that 6 hr window on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Continues the cave to Euro. She ain’t done trending west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good blow ext ern ma and esp cstl ME. 50 knots sustained looks like it tickles E MA coast...pretty impressive run on the GFS. The wind actually looked slightly better than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Gfs continues east bias on east coast storms. Never ever fails . Always corrects back west last 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 It was the 12z Nam but you can see the potential is there if you can mix this to the surface for coastal areas, Further inland not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 gfs doesnt look that much different then its 12z run from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 50 knots sustained looks like it tickles E MA coast...pretty impressive run on the GFS. The wind actually looked slightly better than the Euro. Yeah, there is a small inv, but will be interesting to see the hrly BUFKIT output when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 What model map do you guys usually look at to get the best sense of surface wind speeds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, db306 said: What model map do you guys usually look at to get the best sense of surface wind speeds? I'd rather look at soundings as the best way. I treat model output for sustained winds as an approx guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 hours ago, dryslot said: I typically will sit until 10-10:30 or so, Game cam has shown deer moving thru my area at and around the 9-10:00 am range and again around 5:30-6:00 pm Only the early watch for me - a friend's funeral at 11 AM. The PM forecast for crispy leaves and 60 makes it a good time to work firewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, tamarack said: Only the early watch for me - a friend's funeral at 11 AM. The PM forecast for crispy leaves and 60 makes it a good time to work firewood. Hopefully, I'm tagged out by noon........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just give me 5-10 gusts over 65mph. That’s all I’ll ask Check out the ferry schedule for Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Will winds be a case of pure mb strength though? Agree, sustained above looks potent. Ginx and dit may get their wish. Ginx don't wish for high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 So for this last storm I looked foolish telling the locals up here to expect 30-50mph wind gusts. We had a few hours of strong south winds with some gusts into the mid to maybe high 30's but my fears of power losses sure never happened. I wonder if this storm will produce? Guess we will have to see if that Euro Hudson Valley storm track holds. That run of the other night's Euro with that 963mb low over Portland was nuts. Put that thing running up the HV and we would be in trouble. At least the leaves are now 75% down up here. High winds are more exciting than a few inches of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 90 knot winds just about 25 miles east of me over the water and they are at 925mb so just a 25 miles shift west we get Huge winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nope. Including gusts. We rarely get sustained high winds...not sure why Serves you right for not living 1000' above sea level, and at a bit lower latitude, across the border in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Euro is west . Tracks up over NJ and E PA moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 90 knot winds just about 25 miles east of me over the water and they are at 925mb so just a 25 miles shift west we get Huge winds Only 25 miles west and 2294 feet down, to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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