Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 80mph gusts were not common. Bull$hit. 50-60mph were...as expected. Not thatanomalous....what increased the impact was tge foliage and wet ground. Period. Yea because ASOS didn't measure it, it didn't happen. When TAN hits 67, a notoriously bad wind spot, WST hits 66 another horrible wind spot I will make the assumption that between that and the 93 confirmed many areas had 75 to 80. Sorry once again your backyardism is too much. A lot of the trees and poles were snapped, wet grounds hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 37 minutes ago, Hoth said: No sign of power restoration here. Will need a transformer replaced. I've got 30lbs of ice in my fridge and all my meat/cheese etc in a cooler. Got a fire going, a Guinness in hand and reading by candlelight. Take it in stride and chill like its 1899. The kids building a fort and playing with a hoop and stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Flooding and raging rivers in NH pretty impressive. Reservoirs in my hood are as full as I have seen in years. 9”of rain in a week will do that. For MBY it was an interesting event. For many I know it was damaging and def memorable. Mets did well on this, as did many hobbyists. NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea because ASOS didn't measure it, it didn't happen. When TAN hits 67, a notoriously bad wind spot, WST hits 66 another horrible wind spot I will make the assumption that between that and the 93 confirmed many areas had 75 to 80. Sorry once again your backyardism is too much. A lot of the trees and poles were snapped, wet grounds hmmm You can cover the doggies' eyes and whack it to power outage porn all you want. You are hallucinating alot of extreme gusts into existence with anecdotal crap...something you make a living on. Pretty conceivable that the localized extreme gusts were mesoscale. Ginxy gone completely wild and unhinged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 37 minutes ago, Hoth said: It could be worse. Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 How about the great wind spots like Blue hill and most of the cape and islands? More GGW cherry picked data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Is there a threadex available anywhere online that has highest gusts for each station? That's always been a variable that is annoyingly hard to find. Ugh, I wish. I'm pretty sure we do all that crap combing through the record by hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Maine has their highest number of power outages ever? That seems hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Ugh, I wish. I'm pretty sure we do all that crap combing through the record by hand. Yeah it's annoying. I went back and searched all the old scanned in paper climo reports to get Hartford's wind climo. It's a mess too since they've recorded "peak wind" a bunch of different ways... including "fastest mile" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I drove from Toronto to Stowe today...got home and found town crushed with no power possible until Wednesday. So we decided to head to my parents place in Albany, NY. Just got here after 13 hours driving but oddly Stowe and Waterbury had the worst damage of all the places I saw today. When we left WCAX from Burlington was doing the live 5pm broadcast from Stowe. Here's our local issue at my house...the snapped transformer pole. I still don't think the winds were *all* that high...50-60 gusts...but wet ground and lack of wind in our sheltered valley had a lot of vulnerable trees to that type of wind. People said it was insane last night...just cracking trees for about two hours straight. Its all the damn white pines that uprooted and snapped. Like 75% of these things came down in some form. This is our neighbors with trees on our power line feed from the main road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, geo1 said: Still no power. Will be remembered! Thank god I am the only IMBY poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 What a nasty night if you had to be out in it. The FD next to me fortunately had no one injured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's true. Regionally pretty high impact. I won't get into the whole memorable debate thing, but tough to recall a widespread wind and flood event like this. If you're talking envelop of impact...sure. Like I said, huge area of 50-60mph gusts..memorable in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thank god I am the only IMBY poster. Ray, when you say it is not memorable, do you mean by the average Joe? AmWx people? Meteorologists? My guess, is that for the average person in New England, who did not have a tree go through their roof, etc., will not recall much about this event in a few years. New England weather enthusiasts might have a different recollection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Do we know where Ray stands on this yet? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I think after Euro wind gusts progs were getting tossed around like candy on Halloween, there is a natural letdown when those numbers aren't realized. But a SE gale with the amounts of widespread 50-60 mph gusts that we had is a pretty rare event for our region. We typically do our work with a north component to the wind. Which is another reason why the damage was probably so great. Man trees with a north wind, but not so much with a south wind. The NAEFS guidance was possibly pushing a 25 year return period for the 850 mb jet, I would think 925 was at least that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Still no power here in Lowell. Probably won't have it for another day or so. Rt. 133 is still closed. No school tomorrow. My cabin is also still without power. Got notice I have water in my basement up there. First time ever (7 years). Although I recorded bigger wind gusts during Sandy, more tree's are down in my hood. Also flooding up by the cabin is similar to Irene. Overall, an impressive storm. Will go down as top 5 in past 10 years for non snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think after Euro wind gusts progs were getting tossed around like candy on Halloween, there is a natural letdown when those numbers aren't realized. But a SE gale with the amounts of widespread 50-60 mph gusts that we had is a pretty rare event for our region. We typically do our work with a north component to the wind. Which is another reason why the damage was probably so great. Man trees with a north wind, but not so much with a south wind. The NAEFS guidance was possibly pushing a 25 year return period for the 850 mb jet, I would think 925 was at least that. I dont think too many were buying those crazy maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Ray, your passion for weather is second to none, but it seems like a recurring theme with you on these extreme events. You make emphatic statements about the overall impacts of storm that belittle the impacts to others. From all that I have seen here locally in my back yard, from the other posters in this Forum and from numerous news/media outlets, this event will be memorable for the impacts to New England as whole from the winds, rains, damage, power outages, flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think after Euro wind gusts progs were getting tossed around like candy on Halloween, there is a natural letdown when those numbers aren't realized. But a SE gale with the amounts of widespread 50-60 mph gusts that we had is a pretty rare event for our region. We typically do our work with a north component to the wind. Which is another reason why the damage was probably so great. Man trees with a north wind, but not so much with a south wind. The NAEFS guidance was possibly pushing a 25 year return period for the 850 mb jet, I would think 925 was at least that. Also, the idea of New England trees doing better in north winds...any truth in that? As in actual studies? It makes sense to me but I wonder if anyone has documented that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I dont think too many were buying those crazy maps. After being on these Forums for 12 years I hope no one buys any piece of model data that is posted as gospel. We post those for the discussion that it elicits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Also, the idea of New England trees doing better in north winds...any truth in that? As in actual studies? It makes sense to me but I wonder if anyone has documented that Question probably better answered by @tamarack but I do believe trees adapt to their environment. The background wind is dominated by NW in our region (just due to stronger speeds in the winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, MarkO said: Still no power here in Lowell. Probably won't have it for another day or so. Rt. 133 is still closed. No school tomorrow. My cabin is also still without power. Got notice I have water in my basement up there. First time ever (7 years). Although I recorded bigger wind gusts during Sandy, more tree's are down in my hood. Also flooding up by the cabin is similar to Irene. Overall, an impressive storm. Will go down as top 5 in past 10 years for non snow events. Yeah I thought Sandy and Feb 2010 had higher winds there, but that area got hit hard last night. Is Lowell that bad? 133 is a main drag. How is that still closed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think after Euro wind gusts progs were getting tossed around like candy on Halloween, there is a natural letdown when those numbers aren't realized. But a SE gale with the amounts of widespread 50-60 mph gusts that we had is a pretty rare event for our region. We typically do our work with a north component to the wind. Which is another reason why the damage was probably so great. Man trees with a north wind, but not so much with a south wind. The NAEFS guidance was possibly pushing a 25 year return period for the 850 mb jet, I would think 925 was at least that. Yeah this was very impressive on two fronts: 1. Getting widespread 40-50 knots on a southerly wind...not easy to do in New England. 2. Having it happen when there is still a good amount of foliage on the trees and also happening to be with very saturated ground. Events like January 2006 and December 2000 happened without the foliage and without the soft ground. The weenie Euro maps were clearly overdone, but this is a good example of what we were mentioning that even taking 60-70% of those values would be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this was very impressive on two fronts: 1. Getting widespread 40-50 knots on a southerly wind...not easy to do in New England. 2. Having it happen when there is still a good amount of foliage on the trees and also happening to be with very saturated ground. Events like January 2006 and December 2000 happened without the foliage. The weenie Euro maps were clearly overdone, but this is a good example of what we were mentioning that even taking 60-70% of those values would be problematic. I ran through every model we have on Bufkit, and it was a pretty consistent mixing down 50 knots. A few GFS forecast soundings did 60-65 knots, but that really only verified in localized areas. I mean Bufkit momentum transfer uses an old BOX formula, so it's not surprising it works out well in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think after Euro wind gusts progs were getting tossed around like candy on Halloween, there is a natural letdown when those numbers aren't realized. But a SE gale with the amounts of widespread 50-60 mph gusts that we had is a pretty rare event for our region. We typically do our work with a north component to the wind. Which is another reason why the damage was probably so great. Man trees with a north wind, but not so much with a south wind. The NAEFS guidance was possibly pushing a 25 year return period for the 850 mb jet, I would think 925 was at least that. Would love to see historical data but that makes sense on the return period. I was thinking at least a decade as in 10 years, Mansfield doing two hours of 100+ mph gusts is something I've never seen...max gust 115mph. That's more MWN stuff 2000ft higher. Highest I had seen before that was 102mph in a strong December cutter and that was an isolated gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I thought Sandy and Feb 2010 had higher winds there, but that area got hit hard last night. Is Lowell that bad? 133 is a main drag. How is that still closed? There are lots of trees down. Probably more than any other storm in my 13 years in this house. The ice storm and 2011 October storm took down more branches, but this knocked entire trees down rootball and all, and/or snapped them at the trunk. Rt. 133 is STILL closed, and it's still dark out there. I assume they'll have it open by morning, but power I'm guessing won't come back till tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. Oh, and combine the road closings with the 495 closing during rush hour, the traffic was a nightmare this evening. Took me an hour to pick up a propane heater at HD only about 3 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Forgettable now we have a 93 and a 95. Phil talking about the 93. Director of BHO responding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Impact-wise, how would this compare to the Perfect Storm? Obviously not the same coastal flooding issues, but in terms of areal flooding, tree damage, power, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I drove from Toronto to Stowe today...got home and found town crushed with no power possible until Wednesday. So we decided to head to my parents place in Albany, NY. Just got here after 13 hours driving but oddly Stowe and Waterbury had the worst damage of all the places I saw today. When we left WCAX from Burlington was doing the live 5pm broadcast from Stowe. Here's our local issue at my house...the snapped transformer pole. I still don't think the winds were *all* that high...50-60 gusts...but wet ground and lack of wind in our sheltered valley had a lot of vulnerable trees to that type of wind. People said it was insane last night...just cracking trees for about two hours straight. Its all the damn white pines that uprooted and snapped. Like 75% of these things came down in some form. This is our neighbors with trees on our power line feed from the main road. Forgettable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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