Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 The snow in WVA was very Sandy like ..only, less snow there this time, and of course, no Sandy. However, the 50, 000 foot conceptual perspective on matters does show some similarity there... There was in fact at least the question of a tropical entity being drawn into this synoptic evolution - whether that was ultimately the case or not, the totality of the comparison between five years ago and now ...considering the calendar too ...interesting. Again, as said earlier, those model-based wind products were clearly too saturated for wind west of I-95 ... Perhaps the models in general were overly penetrative with the winds/mixing potential at that. But where it verified, it did so nicely and the warning was warranted there. I said to Scott and Will yesterday that this result was not going to shock me - or something like this. In the end, BL mechanics were sufficient to lift the LLJ and any other processes that might have over come that ..perhaps insufficient. Just as an after thought, my experience with big winds and extra-tropical cyclones is that most of the wind error occurs in these front side WCB environments. That could be luck based on sample size... and there's obviously going to be error everywhere to some degree or another. But growing up in western lower Michigan and then through teen-age years around SNE ...on into adult years as a nuclear powered weather dork, ...that vast majority of big synoptic wind events were always in that PP arc that subtends beneath a big wound up lows. You know ... I recall the November SNE Weather Conference back in ...2006? I think I met Will and Walter Drag there ?? anyway, that day was a wind-warn bomb sort of deal.. Ekster was there, and I remember him musing how it wasn't cutting it -- That was a front sider too Ha! wasn't there a colder coastal the week later after Sandy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 In my neighborhood.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Never lost power thankfully. Debating buying one of those generac machines that will automatically kick on if we lose power. Can be a lifesaver in the winter if we’re out of town and something happens. Same, but of the few times we've lost power, it's only been a couple hours at the most. I expect we'll be without power a couple days. My wife has already reminded me of how we should have bought one awhile back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In my neighborhood.. Wow--close to a demolisher. Lucky for them it wasn't worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That surpasses Icestorm 98 outages. Co-worker from Mt. Vernon said CMP was reporting more customers w/o power there than they had customers. Damage was more widespread this time for the CMP area. In 1998, any place PWM-south within 20 miles of saltwater had light-moderate ice accretion. Less infrastructure this time, I hope. The ice destroyed over 3,000 poles, and I'm guessing this one will be low hundreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Wow--close to a demolisher. Lucky for them it wasn't worse. I would have been more worried as the home owner when I saw a stranger parked on my front property in a lawn chair, drinking an adult beverage, taking pictures of my damaged roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Whoa.. this is a few streets down off of 74 where their power is out. Check out the last picture of the back of the house and window. Looks like the genny torched the whole shed and melted back of the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 A relative’s house, also in Peabody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I would have been more worried as the home owner when I saw a stranger parked on my front property in a lawn chair, drinking an adult beverage, taking pictures of my damaged roof. LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 3.84" total .. probably will end up with higher winds this afternoon than last night imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Same, but of the few times we've lost power, it's only been a couple hours at the most. I expect we'll be without power a couple days. My wife has already reminded me of how we should have bought one awhile back If I was building a house, it would be a no brainer. For the added cost on the mortgage, it seems like it would be well worth it regardless of how seldom you may use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: If I was building a house, it would be a no brainer. For the added cost on the mortgage, it seems like it would be well worth it regardless of how seldom you may use it. Agree, always generate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Wow--close to a demolisher. Lucky for them it wasn't worse. Is that Ray's beast of a man shed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Hearing lots of reports of major flash flooding in the area last night. The town of Alexandria NH has many families stranded right now. Washed out roads, bridges out etc... My total rainfall 3.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Winds are still rather strong this AM. Gusts to 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I mean 57 kts at BGR? That is nuts. Blasting areas not used to those winds. System performed well in the areas that usually get screwed with wind, like my area, but busted in the normally wind prone locales. It was like the affirmative action, Robin-hood wind storm. haha Most of us knew the guidance was overdone, though....no shock there...to most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 How did the cape do? I smelled a big bust out there late in the game, but some were still adamant that they would get raked when I crashed at like 330. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: System performed well in the areas that usually get screwed with wind, like my area, but busted in the normally wind prone locales. It was like the affirmative action, Robin-hood wind storm. haha Most of us knew the guidance was overdone, though....no shock there...to most. There seemed to be a stripe of really good winds from SE CT into RI and then up through SE MA and interior E MA included....outside of that crescent shaped stripe, the winds seemed to underperform a bit. Areas like central MA and then down on the Cape (which is really surprising to me) didn't quite get what I figured they would. Even over E MA, it was kind of inconsistent...I mean, what were the Vegas odds of KTAN getting a higher gust than KMQE? It had to be like 1000 to 1...I figured MQE was good for 65 knots easy...perhaps 70+. They only managed 55 knots. Still solid, but for their location/topography in this event, it was relatively lackluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There seemed to be a stripe of really good winds from SE CT into RI and then up through SE MA and interior E MA included....outside of that crescent shaped stripe, the winds seemed to underperform a bit. Areas like central MA and then down on the Cape (which is really surprising to me) didn't quite get what I figured they would. Even over E MA, it was kind of inconsistent...I mean, what were the Vegas odds of KTAN getting a higher gust than KMQE? It had to be like 1000 to 1...I figured MQE was good for 65 knots easy...perhaps 70+. They only managed 55 knots. Still solid, but for their location/topography in this event, it was relatively lackluster. Figured. Writing was on the wall, but some were deluding themselves that Philippe would save everything at the last moment. Thing was a corpse...although it did prolong things in eastern areas for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Most people will forget this in a week or two. Let this be a lesson to those who thought that twelve different factors would fall into place correctly. LLJ, decaying TS, inversion, convection mixing things up....blah. Give me a hurricane tracking to my west. This was a nice event...don't mind not being without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Probably depends on where you live. Sounds like in some spots who have damage and no power for a few days..probably will be memorable. Merrimack Valley seemed to be another damage spot. Some pretty good damage around my work in Andover. That was probably one of the best combos of wind and rain I can recall. Maybe Feb 16 beats that? But, we had foliage this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most people will forget this in a week or two. Let this be a lesson to those who thought that twelve different factors would fall into place correctly. LLJ, decaying TS, inversion, convection mixing things up....blah. Give me a hurricane tracking to my west. This was a nice event...don't mind not being without power. I think the model output wind gust forecasts also swayed some in a certain direction, similar to the model snowfall maps. Too many read these outputs like they're supposed to be taken literally and it causes people to use a lack of meteorology and understanding of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did the cape do? I smelled a big bust out there late in the game, but some were still adamant that they would get raked when I crashed at like 330. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably depends on where you live. Sounds like in some spots who have damage and no power for a few days..probably will be memorable. Merrimack Valley seemed to be another damage spot. Some pretty good damage around my work in Andover. That was probably one of the best combos of wind and rain I can recall. Maybe Feb 16 beats that? But, we had foliage this time around. We spoke of this before the event....some areas would be memorable, but for the vast majority of the region? No. Again...not complaining. I was satisfied. Its not that bad around here, Scott...I live near the Merrimack Valley, the GF in Andover. I saw a tree down, but its forgettable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 That Mashpee gust is pretty awesome if it is real...the rest of those Cape reports are pretty meh though considering what was just off the deck. I was surprised we could not muster a 60 knot gust out of any of the stations PVC/CQX/HYA/FMH/MVY/ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: How strong were the winds? I'm 100% certain I saw 60mph last night. It's a shame LCI was taken offline by a 30mph gust early in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That Mashpee gust is pretty awesome if it is real...the rest of those Cape reports are pretty meh though considering what was just off the deck. I was surprised we could not muster a 60 knot gust out of any of the stations PVC/CQX/HYA/FMH/MVY/ACK The Mashpee report is wow worthy....but not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The Mashpee report is wow worthy....but not sure about that. per the NWS tweet I believe they confirmed it based on radar presentation at the time the gust occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 There were some reports on the cape of sustained 45-50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: per the NWS tweet I believe they confirmed it based on radar presentation at the time the gust occurred. Well, that is impressive, but isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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