dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 At least we may shed the rest of the late foliage with this next one, Nothing i hate more then to have hunting season with trees full of leaves and ground vegetation still thriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 NAM warm 974 seclusion flooder with intense winds RI SE Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM warm 974 seclusion flooder with intense winds RI SE Ma 19C 850s going over MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 Well that NAM run was drawn up in Kevin's basement.... and the damaging wind still misses him lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Damaging winds? What are those lol??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 00z NAM looks wicked intense for the Sunday night winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 A lot of 70-90 knot wind barbs between the surface and 850mb on the sounding for the NAM over CHH, 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 NAM sounding text for Block Island, RI (06z Monday, 78hr forecast). The sounding diagram doesn't have enough space to show an 93 kt wind barb or hodograph. Latitude: 41.20 Longitude: -71.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 -154 SFC 982 -1 18.8 18.2 96 0.6 18.4 137 50 293.4 295.8 292.2 331.8 13.48 2 950 287 18.4 18.3 99 0.1 18.4 144 80 295.9 298.4 293.4 336.3 14.04 3 900 751 16.8 16.6 99 0.1 16.7 157 93 298.8 301.2 293.7 337.7 13.36 4 850 1237 14.2 11.7 85 2.5 12.6 168 92 301.1 302.9 292.0 331.2 10.23 5 800 1749 14.0 3.1 48 10.9 7.9 182 90 306.1 307.2 290.0 324.3 5.97 6 750 2290 10.0 0.0 50 10.0 4.8 186 88 307.4 308.4 289.7 323.1 5.11 7 700 2859 6.4 -0.5 61 6.9 2.8 186 78 309.6 310.6 290.6 325.9 5.27 8 650 3463 3.2 -13.4 28 16.6 -3.3 190 69 312.6 313.0 288.5 319.4 2.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: NAM sounding text for Block Island, RI (06z Monday, 78hr forecast). The sounding diagram doesn't have enough space to show an 93 kt wind barb or hodograph. Latitude: 41.20 Longitude: -71.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 -154 SFC 982 -1 18.8 18.2 96 0.6 18.4 137 50 293.4 295.8 292.2 331.8 13.48 2 950 287 18.4 18.3 99 0.1 18.4 144 80 295.9 298.4 293.4 336.3 14.04 3 900 751 16.8 16.6 99 0.1 16.7 157 93 298.8 301.2 293.7 337.7 13.36 4 850 1237 14.2 11.7 85 2.5 12.6 168 92 301.1 302.9 292.0 331.2 10.23 5 800 1749 14.0 3.1 48 10.9 7.9 182 90 306.1 307.2 290.0 324.3 5.97 6 750 2290 10.0 0.0 50 10.0 4.8 186 88 307.4 308.4 289.7 323.1 5.11 7 700 2859 6.4 -0.5 61 6.9 2.8 186 78 309.6 310.6 290.6 325.9 5.27 8 650 3463 3.2 -13.4 28 16.6 -3.3 190 69 312.6 313.0 288.5 319.4 2.09 Just a bit windy. Shows the potential here if we get one of these stemwinders to bomb out early and tuck in. The GFS is a snoozefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 I don't trust the GFS if the NAM and Euro are in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 I actually think the NAM is close to 100 knot wind gusts over SE MA and RI for Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't trust the GFS if the NAM and Euro are in agreement The old "EE" rule. Prefer 2 see that combo at 48 hours out. Still a ways out. Good news: Big potential still exists. Huge question: Will that still be the case 24 hours from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 The old "EE" rule. Prefer 2 see that combo at 48 hours out. Still a ways out. Good news: Big potential still exists. Huge question: Will that still be the case 24 hours from now? That is the question that needs to be answered, I think models can go either way with the intensity of the low level jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Could there be a severe microburst event Sunday night into Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 This is going to be a fun little forecast, with a lot of moving parts. Not a good rip and read system. For starters we have a really well defined PV streamer. The GFS (sorry Kevin) has the tropopause pressures below 500 mb, so nothing to scoff at. At the same time we also have 93L being drawn up the coast. But tropical convection is a wildcard for sure. That being said, these wild rapid cyclogenesis solutions aren't just weenie fodder. Given the right tilt to the upper and lower level PV anomalies, the upper level PV streamer will enhance southerly flow to its east, increasing WAA and moisture transport north. You also have significant latent heat release induced low level PV anomalies thanks to 93L which will induce stronger cyclonic circulation above it. That feeds back to increase the the southerly flow ahead of the PV streamer. More southerly flow means more heat/moisture for convection, and so on. You can see the feedback mechanism going on here with the rapid deepening south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 The weather.us Euro ensemble gust forecast for Portland is Max gust of 82 mph, mean 55 mph, 90th percentile 67 mph, 10th percentile 40 mph. So basically 90% of the time we should expect PWM to gust higher than 40 but less than 67 mph. I'll take that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 5z Sunday dawn awakens. CHH averaging 59 mph, max 91, 90% 80 and 10% 42 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Euro? Surface low still cuts up the Hudson. Takes an 80+ kt 850 LLJ over SNE, winds from BDL to CON and everywhere east greater than 58 kts at 900 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Surface low still cuts up the Hudson. Takes an 80+ kt 850 LLJ over SNE, winds from BDL to CON and everywhere east greater than 58 kts at 900 mb. I'll enjoy my rain--really wish I could get up to P2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Surface low still cuts up the Hudson. Takes an 80+ kt 850 LLJ over SNE, winds from BDL to CON and everywhere east greater than 58 kts at 900 mb. Full frontal nudity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Full frontal nudity Lmao... Euro holding its ground!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 At least we may shed the rest of the late foliage with this next one, Nothing i hate more then to have hunting season with trees full of leaves and ground vegetation still thriving.On my way out the door to sit in a tree. First real day today hopefully the deer move. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 The euro is pretty impressive throughout. GFS not so much. I can't tell but seems like Ukie is maybe near NYC if one interpolates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Hopefully folks have taken this seriously, and will take the necessary precautions,,and that they weren't fooled by the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 And to further illustrate the horrifically awful GFS and those that bought it..here is the EP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully folks have taken this seriously, and will take the necessary precautions,,and that they weren't fooled by the GFS Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. Solid structures may fail beneath a barrage of acorns and rolling pumpkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. Solid structures may fail beneath a barrage of acorns and rolling pumpkins. No power for Halloween. Just the sounds of chainsaws throughout the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 That's a pretty impressive rain event in the HV on the Euro. Even gets 3" down here in CT. And the gust product was actually the most impressive for this area yet; widespread 60-70 (probably more like 50-60 in reality away from coast) for a brief period Sunday night. With already saturated ground there could def be some problems with uprooted trees if the wind materializes. Too bad the wind comes overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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