TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 All modeling I've seen has been pretty much a lock for Cape, Islands to get cane gusts. The real Q is interior E MA and E CT. (Obviously not cane gusts, but memorable gusts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Westerly RI Misquamicut weather station showing 51mph sustained, gusting to 67 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Tie game by the way, Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Man, W CT, Waterbury area has been getting pounding rains for a while. Ya....Meriden CT has a Animal Shelter flooding ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, sbos_wx said: All modeling I've seen has been pretty much a lock for Cape, Islands to get cane gusts. The real Q is interior E MA and E CT. (Obviously not cane gusts, but memorable gusts) Yea, I was conservative. Gurriel!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I raised the possibility of cane gusts there on my blog. Wow at the World Series lol. Man what a good series this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 I went out and it was pouring,,,,not much wind, 4-4 Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Lot of 3-4" pixels showing up in the same area that got 5 a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def starting to see some better obs on the south coast. But this is how it should go...it ramps up very quickly after looking pretty lackluster the first few hours of the evening. I do think the coast is going to do really well...the bigger question to me is how widespread this becomes from E CT northeast through E MA off the coast in the interior. I think the Cape is in some big trouble as we near 6z. NAM continues to develop 90+ 925 jet max which goes right over the Cape. This sounding looks quite good for some big wind gusts. I bet someone gets an 80+ mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think the Cape is in some big trouble as we near 6z. NAM continues to develop 90+ 925 jet max which goes right over the Cape. This sounding looks quite good for some big wind gusts. I bet someone gets an 80+ mph gust I agree. The LL lapse rates down there too are really favorable to mix down...throw in no land friction and you have a recipe for massive winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: HVN 46kt Now we're getting there. A good sign (if you like wind) to be seeing these obs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Power flash followed a few seconds later with a low boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 I agree. The LL lapse rates down there too are really favorable to mix down...throw in no land friction and you have a recipe for massive winds. Winds are already howling right now here on the Outer Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree. The LL lapse rates down there too are really favorable to mix down...throw in no land friction and you have a recipe for massive winds. Sneaky threat on Cape Ann too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Raining hard here and finally a little wind. Would honestly be impressed if the ASH ASOS gusts to over 40 kts. Very interested to see if anything came down tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 Well this is something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...I pretty much only look at actual station obs. It's not because I think people intentionally deceive...it's because it is very easy to overestimate winds. I still do it and I've been out chasing wind events many times in the past with a hand held anemometer. It's really easy to be sure a 44mph gust was at least 60. Can't tell you how many times I was sure we were getting gusts to 70 on the cape and I look at the handheld and it says 56. On top of that, something like 45mph will in fact do pretty decent damage to trees with foliage still on them. Throw in a saturated ground and you could be looking at "equivalent" 50-55 knot damage. The damage is def a big threat...but in terms of the nerdiness of verifying the actual numbers...station obs over human estimation every single time. I wholeheartedly agree with this post. Very well put, Will! Only thing I'd add is that a handheld anemometer is going to record a lesser wind speed than that at 10m. Consequently, the aforementioned 56 mph ob corresponds to a gust exceeding 60 mph at the standard ASOS height. Regardless, it's a natural tendency for everyone to overestimate the wind, as you so well noted. Despite experiencing winds exceeding HF on at least 30 different occasions, it never ceases to amaze me how strong a 64 kt wind gust truly is. In fact, the same applies to a "storm force" wind of 50 kt; an appropriately named and categorization for winds of such strength, IMHO! Edit: Feel confident there will be numerous reports of gusts >/= 50 kt...with >/= 64 kt on the outer Cape. Hoping it mixes down that well for many of you, and all residents in the entire region don't experience personal damage to property; much less any bodily injury! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree. The LL lapse rates down there too are really favorable to mix down...throw in no land friction and you have a recipe for massive winds. I mean WST is 65/65, that's pretty warm. That's a good launching pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Raining hard here and finally a little wind. Would honestly be impressed if the ASH ASOS gusts to over 40 kts. Very interested to see if anything came down tomorrow morning. You might be more likely to do it tomorrow afternoon, but I don't think 40 knots is a stretch for ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I was conservative. Gurriel!!!!!! Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Woaw....big tree just crashin down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 GON with a 45kt too now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, db306 said: Woaw....big tree just crashin down Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: You might be more likely to do it tomorrow afternoon, but I don't think 40 knots is a stretch for ASH. Yeah I agree, which is why I want to see if we make it. As far as I can remember 40-45 kts is about the upper eschelon for synoptic wind here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Very little talk of the rain. This is nuts for how widespread the heavy rain is. ALB forecasting 3-6" for Litchfield/Lower Hudson Valley/Catskills through 1am... jeez. Also note the snow falling in the Appalachians. Edit: You can see the LLJ on radar, no? Warm conveyor belt type look punching towards the CT shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Well this is something.... So is this... HRRR soundings tickling 65 knots at the top of the mixed layer at BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Buddy in Westerly says multiple trees down winds are roaring, lost cable but so far power is still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree. The LL lapse rates down there too are really favorable to mix down...throw in no land friction and you have a recipe for massive winds. Then they have the mini low that hits the cape, whetever the heck that thing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 So someone straighten me out; are we expecting peak wind with that dry slot approaching LI, or that area sort of east of Delaware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree. The LL lapse rates down there too are really favorable to mix down...throw in no land friction and you have a recipe for massive winds. That's pretty eye opening. James might be relocated to to some location in the Atlantic. Outside of the CT coast I'm not really liking signal for big gusts inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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